Daily Dax

[catracho]

Dax short term view

chart attached

 

[catracho]

DAX now holding at the lows of the day...working up for next move down..will it break 6440? Or will it bounce..same for DOW..break 12k? or bounce... favouring a fall to 11600 DOW, and possible DAX to 6160-6200 (200 dma)...

 

[firewalker99]

S&P 1400.. Dow 12250... and Fib 38.2 retrace of the big fall....
and the look of a double top on last nights action...

Where from here I wonder...back down or push through..

Back down was pretty predictable, it would have been very surprising if we went higher. Actually, I a a bit surprised to see it haul back 300 points of that plunge... then again it was a near-perfect 50% retracement on clearly lower volume.... Today so far not much action going on, but the US open bell is ringing soon...

 

[Hook Shot]

Dax called up over 100pts at the open - that should be a sight for sore eyes........... and what happens after it's scored it's hundred then what..........LOL

Dax did not make new lows today (below the mini-crash lows that is) so maybe just maybe .... especially after strong comeback in US.....

Should be a fun earner either way ......... always is after a big dipper like today....

 

[catracho]

Looks like we have 2 lines in the sand....6770 and above may mean new highs... a third test and break below 6440 ish level (preferred scenario) opens way for 6150 -6200 ...

 

[firewalker99]

Looks like we have 2 lines in the sand....6770 and above may mean new highs... a third test and break below 6440 ish level (preferred scenario) opens way for 6150 -6200 ...

So far not much interesting opportunities... the last two hours have been more chop than anything... oh well, flat is also a position

 

[firewalker99]

Trend still up

As always the trend is the trend until proven otherwise...

 

[catracho]

Interesting day so far..probably too late now to initiate shorts? Key will be the rally that follows once this fall has run it's course...new highs or a lower high...anybody got any downside targets in mind? Thinking 7043-7070 then we rally....

 

[Hook Shot]

Interesting day so far..probably too late now to initiate shorts? Key will be the rally that follows once this fall has run it's course...new highs or a lower high...anybody got any downside targets in mind? Thinking 7043-7070 then we rally....

Sorry to be dull but the old highs in the range you mentioned would be obvious...
but the lows so far are nearish to 25%pbk of the big bounce and 33%pbk is around old highs.
Either of which could halt the wobble.

Another interesting point is we should see a down day on dow - dip below 728 so any pre-market bounce could be an opp.... to play that short .......... possibly.

 

[catracho]

chart of recent action..is this fall a one day wonder? Or will we see a great SHORT opportunity with a rally that fails below the highs...

 

[firewalker99]

chart of recent action..is this fall a one day wonder? Or will we see a great SHORT opportunity with a rally that fails below the highs...

Yeah, I'm a bit puzzled... my trendline is breached but we are rallying back up.

 

[catracho]

Must have been a false break of trend line !!
Next stop 7500...

 

[firewalker99]

Looks mighty dangerous...

 

[hobby]

Looks mighty dangerous...

Go on, humour me.....

'mighty dangerous' in that it might fall heavily, or 'mighty dangerous' in that it might spike up?!

 

[catracho]

Maybe (just maybe) we are in final move up....at least for a while !
see charts attached - same picture but zoomed out...
maybe 7600 target for dax?

still waiting for the turn - IT WILL come one day!

 

[firewalker99]

Go on, humour me.....

'mighty dangerous' in that it might fall heavily, or 'mighty dangerous' in that it might spike up?!

Both :cheesy:

Well, you asked to be humoured, didn't you
For the moment looks like it's going to lead to a spike up...

 

[hobby]

Both :cheesy:

Well, you asked to be humoured, didn't you
For the moment looks like it's going to lead to a spike up...

Well, I hope you're wrong cos I'm getting a Tonking with a capital T at the moment! The Dax is a very unforgiving Index....I knew I should have taken up building forts from discarded lollipop sticks instead.

 

[firewalker99]

Well, I hope you're wrong cos I'm getting a Tonking with a capital T at the moment! The Dax is a very unforgiving Index....I knew I should have taken up building forts from discarded lollipop sticks instead.

looks like it's still consolidating now...
I am still looking for the final and near-vertical run up that will lead to the ultimate buying climax...
and although it has already moved up significantly I don't see the "obvious" signs of the end of the exhaustion phase yet :|

 

[catracho]

Well - another break of the uptrend - (so far -obviously we could rally to close back in the trend) - tho' probably due a few days of correction ?? Which on DAX could be a few hundred points - not sure if we have seen the blow off climax move yet...so unless we see SIGNIFICANT falls to change the trend - this will probably be a BUY the dip (again) opportunity....

 

[firewalker99]

Well - another break of the uptrend - (so far -obviously we could rally to close back in the trend) - tho' probably due a few days of correction ?? Which on DAX could be a few hundred points - not sure if we have seen the blow off climax move yet...so unless we see SIGNIFICANT falls to change the trend - this will probably be a BUY the dip (again) opportunity....

Yes the trend is broken now, for real this time... but we only selling slowly (yet?)...
I'm looking to buy around 7450 potentially...