Daily And Weekly Forecasts: EUR/USD, Crude oil, ES, Dax, Gas

Anton Kolhanov

Member
53 0

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
MAIN MARKET MOVERS
(Wednesday) FOMC Statement + press conference;
(Wednesday) Crude oil inventories;
(Friday) EU + US Manufacturing PMI.

WHAT TO EXPECT?
Powell will not say directly that FED will decrease % rates and FED will be looking for further economic indicators. So traders will became calm and expecting further economic signals – this will be signal for strong corrections;
Oil inventories will continue to increase, as market totally oversupplied and oil price will continue downtrend, if we will not have war expansion in Oman bay;
PMI’s became sideways, so next news will be very important, as if PMI will fall, this will be signal for FED to decrease % rates;

CONCLUSION
US Core CPI still over 2% FED target level, where same time PMI much higher 50 points, unemployment on low level, Friday’s retail sales was good. So US economy have all advantages and going well and for June or, probably, July, no any reason for FED to decrease % rates. And it possible that FED will not need to decrease % rates at all, as US economy will continue to go well.
Same time EU do not have where to decrease % rates and looking on this, US economy now have all advantages over EU, that create potential for downtrend on eur/usd and EU equity market.


PRICE FORECAST
EUR/USD
(Risk of % rates decreasing is falling, US economy is going well)
1 scenario: from 1.1205 possible correction to 1.1310 and then downtrend to 1.1150 – 1.1110 (or directly from 1.1205);
2 scenario, if risk for % rates decreasing will increase: from 1.1320 to 1.1455.

GOLD
(Risk of % rates decreasing is falling, US economy is going well. Gold trading on the top and need correction, equity market trading on the top, when gold still without correction)
1 scenario: from 1341 correction to 1346/48, then downtrend to 1328/21;
2 scenario, if risk for % rates decreasing will increase: from 1360 to 1395 and 1432.

CRUDE OIL
(Market strongly oversupplied, inventories will continue uptrend, that will create further pressure on prices, that probably OPEC will no be able to fix in the end of June and totally market have target on $46)
1 scenario: from 52.50 correction to 54.25/80, then downtrend to 50.60 and after its break down next targets 49.40 and 46.00;
2 scenario, if we will have war in Oman bay: from 54.80 to 58.20 – 61.40.

E-mini S&P500
(FED will say that they need to see further economic conditions before to decrease % rates, that will made market more cold and increase potential for downtrend. VIX do not support further uptrend on equity market)
1 scenario: from 2895 uptrend continuation to 2910/22 and then downtrend to 2871/75;
2 scenario, if risk for % rates decreasing will increase: from 2922 to 2947/55.

E-mini Dow Jones
(same conditions as ES)
1 scenario: from 26140 uptrend continuation to 26290/400 and then downtrend to 25890. And if 25890 will be broken down, next target 25530;
2 scenario: from 26290 to 26525/640.

E-mini DAX
(same conditions as ES and YM)
1 scenario: from 12105 uptrend continuation to 12235 and then downtrend to 12035;
2 scenario: from 12235 to 12450.
 

Anton Kolhanov

Member
53 0
EUR/USD, weekly forecast, July 15 – 19
The pair is trading along an uptrend with target on 1,1370 and may be expected to continue, while pair is trading above support level 1,1210.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 1,1210, which will be followed by moving down to support level 1,1107




GOLD weekly forecast, July 15 – 19
The pair is trading along an uptrend with target on 1433 and if it keeps on moving up above that level, we may expect the pair to reach resistance level 1470.
Downtrend can start from resistance level 1433, which will be followed by moving down to support level 1397 – 1382.





Crude oil weekly forecast, july 15 – 19
The pair is trading along an uptrend with target on 61,45, 63,10 and may be expected to continue, while pair is trading above support level 59,25.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 59,25, which will be followed by moving down to support level 57,50.





S&P500 weekly forecast, July 15 – 19
The pair is trading along an uptrend with target on 3050 and may be expected to continue, while pair is trading above support level 3002,45.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 3002,45, which will be followed by moving down to support level 2958.

 

Anton Kolhanov

Member
53 0
EUR/USD, Tuesday forecast, July 16
The pair is trading along an downtrend with target on 1,1238 and if it keeps on moving down below that level, we may expect the pair to reach support level 1,1210.
An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 1,1285, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1,1330.


GOLD, Tuesday forecast, July 16
The pair is trading along an sideways trend between support 1409 and resistance 1418.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 1409, which will be followed by moving down to support level 1403 and 1397.
An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 1418, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1426 and 1433.



WTI Crude Oil, Tuesday forecast, July 16
The pair is trading along an uptrend with target on 60,45 and uptrend may be expected to continue, while pair is trading above support level 59,25.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 59,25, which will be followed by moving down to support level 58,45 and then 57,50.
 

Anton Kolhanov

Member
53 0
EUR/USD, Wednesday forecast, September 25
The uptrend may be expected to continue, while pair is trading above support level 1.0985, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 1.1024 – 1.1040.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 1.0985, which will be followed by moving down to support level 1.0967.



GOLD, Wednesday forecast, September 25
The downtrend may be expected to continue, while pair is trading below resistance level 1534, which will be followed by reaching support level 1524 and if it keeps on moving down below that level, we may expect the pair to reach support level 1515.
An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 1535, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1542.



WTI Crude oil, Wednesday forecast, September 25
The downtrend may be expected to continue, while pair is trading below resistance level 57.50, which will be followed by reaching support level 55.66 and 55.05.
An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 57.50, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 58.05 and 58.70.



S&P500, Wednesday forecast, September 25
The downtrend may be expected to continue, while pair is trading below resistance level 2981, which will be followed by reaching support level 2957 and if it keeps on moving down below that level, we may expect the pair to reach support level 2941.
An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 2981, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 3008.

 

Anton Kolhanov

Member
53 0
EUR/USD, Thursday forecast, September 26
The downtrend may be expected to continue, while pair is trading below resistance level 1.0965, which will be followed by reaching support level 1.0937 and 1.0926.
An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 1.0965, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1.0987 and if it keeps on moving up above that level, we may expect the pair to reach resistance level1.1024.



GOLD, Thursday forecast, September 26
The uptrend may be expected to continue, while pair is trading above support level 1504, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 1511 and 1515.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 1504, which will be followed by moving down to support level 1493.



WTI Crude oil, Thursday forecast, September 26
The uptrend may be expected to continue, while pair is trading above support level 56.20, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 56.75 and 57.50.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 56.20, which will be followed by moving down to support level 55.66 and if it keeps on moving down below that level, we may expect the pair to reach support level 54.90.




S&P500, Thursday forecast, September 26
The uptrend may be expected to continue, while pair is trading above support level 2974, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 2991 and if it keeps on moving up above that level, we may expect the pair to reach resistance level 3008.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 2974, which will be followed by moving down to support level 2956.

 

Anton Kolhanov

Member
53 0
EUR/USD, Monday forecast, September 30
The uptrend may be expected to continue, while pair is trading above support level 1.0920 – 1.0905, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 1.0967.
Downtrend is not expecting today



GOLD, Monday forecast, September 30
The downtrend may be expected to continue, while pair is trading below resistance level 1493.8, which will be followed by reaching support level 1483.
An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 1493.8, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1501.1.




WTI Crude oil, Monday forecast, September 30
The downtrend may be expected to continue in case the market drops below support level 55.41, which will be followed by reaching support level 54.80.
An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 55.94, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 56.65.





S&P500, Monday forecast, September 30
The uptrend may be expected to continue, while pair is trading above support level 2971.5, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 2986.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 2971.5, which will be followed by moving down to support level 2964 and 2953.75.

 

Anton Kolhanov

Member
53 0
EUR/USD, Tuesday forecast, October 1
The downtrend may be expected to continue, while pair is trading below resistance level 1.0905 – 1.0926, which will be followed by reaching support level 1.0838.
Uptrend is not expecting today.



GOLD, Tuesday forecast, October 1
The downtrend may be expected to continue, while pair is trading below resistance level 1464.3, which will be followed by reaching support level 1452.7.
An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 1464.3, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1474.8.



WTI Crude oil, Tuesday forecast, October 1
The downtrend may be expected to continue, while pair is trading below resistance level 54.80, which will be followed by reaching support level 53.93 and if it keeps on moving down below that level, we may expect the pair to reach support level 53.25.
An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 54.80, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 55.55 and if it keeps on moving up above that level, we may expect the pair to reach resistance level 56.65.



S&P500, Tuesday forecast, October 1
The uptrend may be expected to continue in case the market rises above resistance level 2996.5, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 3008.5.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 2986, which will be followed by moving down to support level 2972.

 

Anton Kolhanov

Member
53 0
EUR/USD, Monday forecast, October 7
The downtrend may be expected to continue, while pair is trading below resistance level 1.0987, which will be followed by reaching support level 1.0940.
An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 1.0996, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1.1040.



GOLD, Monday forecast, October 7
The downtrend may be expected to continue, while pair is trading below resistance level 1509.2, which will be followed by reaching support level 1494.2.
An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 1509.2, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1516.2.



WTI Crude oil, Monday forecast, October 7
The uptrend may be expected to continue, while pair is trading above support level 52.92, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 53.35 and if it keeps on moving up above that level, we may expect the pair to reach resistance level 54.15.
An downtrend will start from resistance 53.35, which will be followed by moving down to support level 52.59 and 52.03.



S&P500, Monday forecast, October 7
An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 2947.5, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 2968.5.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 2927.75, which will be followed by moving down to support level 2896.75

 

Anton Kolhanov

Member
53 0
EUR/USD, Thursday forecast, October 17
The uptrend may be expected to continue, while pair is trading above support level 1.1067, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 1.1108.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 1.1062, which will be followed by moving down to support level 1.1033 and if it keeps on moving down below that level, we may expect the pair to reach support level 1.0987.




GOLD, Thursday forecast, October 17
The downtrend may be expected to continue, while pair is trading below resistance level 1494.2, which will be followed by reaching support level 1480.8 and if it keeps on moving down below that level, we may expect the pair to reach support level 1472.
An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 1494.2, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1505.4.




WTI Crude oil, Thursday forecast, October 17
The uptrend may be expected to continue, while pair is trading above support level 52.57, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 53.74 – 54.06.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 52.30, which will be followed by moving down to support level 51.38.




S&P500, Thursday forecast, October 17
The pair is trading along an sideways trend between support 2984 and resistance 2997.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 2984, which will be followed by moving down to support level 2971 – 2959.
An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 2997, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 3008.

 

Anton Kolhanov

Member
53 0
EUR/USD, Tuesday forecast, October 22
The uptrend may be expected to continue, while pair is trading above support level 1.1139, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 1.1201.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 1.1139, which will be followed by moving down to support level 1.1106




GOLD, Tuesday forecast, October 22
The uptrend may be expected to continue, while pair is trading above support level 1480.8, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 1494.2.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 1480.8, which will be followed by moving down to support level 1476.9 and 1472.2.




WTI Crude oil, Tuesday forecast, October 22
The uptrend may be expected to continue, while pair is trading above support level 52.91, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 54.18.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 52.91, which will be followed by moving down to support level 52.30.




S&P500, Tuesday forecast, October 22
The uptrend may be expected to continue, while pair is trading above support level 3008.5, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 3024.5.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 3008.5, which will be followed by moving down to support level 2996.5.

 

Anton Kolhanov

Member
53 0
EUR/USD, Thursday forecast, October 24
An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 1.1150, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1.1200.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 1.1108, which will be followed by moving down to support level 1.1072.





GOLD, Thursday forecast, October 24
An downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 1490, which will be followed by moving down to support level 1483.
An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 1497, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1505.





WTI Crude oil, Thursday forecast, October 24
The downtrend may be expected to continue, while pair is trading below resistance level 56.07, which will be followed by reaching support level 54.93 and if it keeps on moving down below that level, we may expect the pair to reach support level 53.62.
The uptrend may be expected to continue from support 54.93 or in case the market rises above resistance level 56.07, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 56.65.




S&P500, Thursday forecast, October 24
An downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 3002.5, which will be followed by moving down to support level 2996 and 2984.
An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 3010, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 3014 and 3024.

 

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