I have had some very puzzling experiences in respect of Covered Warrant pricing with SG. I've seen it in the past a few times, but due to lack of alternatives I have recently bought SG Covered Warrants again for Brent Crude Dec09. When I bought into the SV03 Call warrants around 9:40am on 15th July, I paid 3.05p. Brent Crude Dec09 was around $64. By the end of the session the same ASK price was 3.30p with BC Dec09 around $64.21. Next day I took a screen capture when the price of Brent Crude Dec09 had risen 49c or 0.76% to $64.70. The gearing at that point was quoted as 9.7. What rise in price did I see...? None. Actually the warrant dropped by 21.79%!! BUT two of the calls rose, both by around 3%. The rise in Brent Cude continued that day reaching $65.14 (up 1.45%) at the point I took another screen capture. The SV03 Calls were still down by 16.99%! Next day, another rise. Brent Crdue Dec09 now priced at $65.79, or +2.46% from the closing price of $64.21 on the day I bought in. With gearing of 9.5 I'd have expected at least a 15-20% gain. In reality the ASK price was sitting at 2.82, down a further 3.61% and down 14.5% from the closing price on that first day.
Today (July 20th) I took another screen capture. The price of BC Dec09 is now way up at $67.91. I called it right, up 6.1% from when I bought in. With gearing in the range of 9 to 11, I'd be expecting the ASK price to be up around 4.2p to 4.9p. Current ASK price...? The same as when I bought in...3.05p!!!! How can that possibly be?
I don't know of any market where the price of an underlying commodity could increase by over 6% while the price of a Call derivitive stands still. Clearly it's time to find an alternative.
If anyone can explain the above, I'd love to hear their theory.