could RBS be next for suspension?

[dr.blix]

hi,

not sure of how it works...could RBS follow HBOS and be suspended?

ta.

 

[Jaydee]

The HBOS shares have been suspended and new LLOY shares will be issued on 16th Jan. It's to do with the LLOY/HBOS merger.

Unlikely RBS will be suspended as they haven't been taken over by another firm (except by the tax payer )

 

[dr.blix]

aah, k jaydee thanks. i read that today but just wanted confirmation that it wasn't linked to any other factors.

much appreciated.

 

[MOD_MOD]

Its looking bloody likely.

My mark to market is pretty awful atm... certainly looks like a huge loss for the books is imminent if Brown decides to grab the entire company.

 

[anley]

Irish banks are bust and that basically means Ireland is bust as well - watch their bonds.

UK banks are bust and that basically means the UK is bust.

 

[dr.blix]

crazy, i posed this question when RBS were at 34.7p, seeing them at 10p looks weird.

 

[dr.blix]

if the government (taxpayer) owned RBS would that mean it could never go bust, and therefore it's share value would never hit zero?

 

[Jaydee]

If the government owned all the shares (full nationalisation), RBS could never go bust.

I'm starting to think that the HMT should have let this one fall like the FED did with Lehman Bros. It has a massive amount in common with it's cousin across the pond. The government may have made a mistake keeping it going.

The main issue is that, still, the sub prime assets are being unwound - the price of these decreases daily and they are so illiquid, they are difficult to price ahead. How many write-offs are to be disclosed in the coming months/years by RBS we just don't know.

 

[Jaydee]

Just as an addition to what I just said, here is part of a statement which was issued by RBS this morning at 7am:

'RBS also announces that it has reached agreement with HM Treasury ("HMT") and UK Financial Investments ("UKFI") to replace the £5bn of preference shares it holds with new ordinary shares. Eligible RBS shareholders will be able to apply to subscribe for approximately £5bn of new ordinary shares pro rata to their existing shareholdings at a fixed price of 31.75 pence per share. This represents an 8.5 per cent discount to the closing price on 16 January 2009. These new ordinary shares will be offered to shareholders and new investors on the same basis as the Offer in November 2008. The ordinary shares offer is fully underwritten by HMT. The proceeds of the issue will be used to fully redeem the preference shares held by HMT.'

So, if you want, you can buy these new ordinary shares at 31.75p per share. Based on todays price action, do you think there will be many takers?

 

[poborsky]

The market has priced in the fact that they are all but nationalised, or will be shortly.

 

[dr.blix]

looking at the end of day auction figures for RBS i can see a sell at 48p!

is this an error/blip or a poss indication from large buyers of a high opening price after the morning auction?

 

[MOD_MOD]

Hmm what are the chances that the big institutional shareholders will try and stump up the £5bn to prevent wholesale nationalisation?

Do you reckon its worth them paying for the options rather than allowing all their shares to basically go down the toilet once HMT controls the bank in full?

 

[UK-T(raider)]

Hmm, is anyone Long on RBS? I went 60L @ 11p yesterday... I was going to make the plunge and buy actual shares but % for % gains would be better off in SpreadB considering the maximum I could lose is 660 or so... few people have called me mad, anyone else? :clap:

What is the general view here on the chances of a nationalisation? I put the price drop down to fear by the media (ignorent maybe) but yes they posted a possible 28 billion loss, but its just another figure to add to the record books and certainly not the last, wouldn't suprise me if a larger one comes out in a few months from another firm.

I was projecting a recovery to 15p today, almost made it but dropped... now projecting a recovery of 20p by the end of next week... too optimistic?

Give me your views.

 

[Biffarama]

I bought a large number last year at 80p for a long term investment (ie anything between 5-20 years depending on price). Went in again at 11p yesterday afternoon to top up. Dont think there will be a "quick buck" to be made but surely a long term plan....

 

[UK-T(raider)]

I bought a large number last year at 80p for a long term investment (ie anything between 5-20 years depending on price). Went in again at 11p yesterday afternoon to top up. Dont think there will be a "quick buck" to be made but surely a long term plan....

Likewise, family members purchased 10,000 and 2000 at 46 and 56 respectively, so it looks like all of us are in for the long haul, the advantage is I can exit easier without paying any fees. This bet was initially aimed for March to May latest, it will no doubt shoot back up if it dodges the threat of nationalisation, and people who have bought in now will get a rare opportunity to make a vast sum of cash, the risk is still very high though.

 

[Jaydee]

There is still a massive risk - this is more serious than Northern Rock by a long way.

I have to add that I can't understand why people are buying at the moment. Don't forget the old saying that, "Stocks are cheap for a reason" - i.e. banking stocks are dogs. Until we know what the full extent of the losses are, why buy these risky buggers? The indices are set to crumble again over the next year - it's really not looking good.

 

[MOD_MOD]

TBH at this point I have nothing to lose... Im in for the next 3-5 year period. Average break-even point 56p (10k shares).

Big, big mistake. Oh well, live and learn. I'm sure that the London banking industry is set for collapse. Thank god the rest of my portfolio is in oil, hedged with Schroders renewable energy fund

 

[mpi2008]

Indeed, RBS seems to be all but fully nationalised but if you listen to Gordon's language in the past few weeks, he is apparently steadfast in his decision NOT to go this extra step. I think the government will do whatever it can to salvage the situation and with the introduction of Obama's team in the US + associated pledges, there may just be light at the end of the tunnel...........risky as hell though admittedly.

I'm long a a few thousand at 11p. (+ a few at emm 69p.....cough cough

 

[dr.blix]

if you had balls of steel you could have went long at 10p for the last 3 days making 20-30% each day.

if you were really crazy you could have done that more than once a day.

i lost big time on RBS, 2/3's of my capitol. it's tempting to chase RBS, but with my luck i'd lose the lot.

 

[counter_violent]

Well here is a simple calc...RBS has halved and halved and halved etc to where we are today....So now from 12p...half is 6p and half again is 3p....compared to 12p doubled to 24p and doubled again to 48p...

Which is the more likely scenario to play out ? Double and double or half and half or nationalization?