Contrarian feeling Usd oversold?

[PeterTT]

I can see little evidence technically but am I the only one who thinks the Usd is short term oversold? Everyone you see/hear/read in the medai is saying Eur/usd is going to 1.40/1.50 by mid 2004. It just seems to me that everyone must be short Usd at the moment so I think we could get quite a little correction over 1st 2 or 3 weeks of January. .. will be interesting to see .. ,meanwhile I am waiting for a decent chart signal before I go long the Usd.

Peter

 

[Thoth]

I agree...there's a bit of a rally at the moment, but whether it will be a significant one...probably not

 

[Dow Dog]

1.40/1.50 ?

That would be around 2.00/2.15 to the pound. When was the last time it got there ?

 

[foghorn]

It got to 2.00 ish just prior to sterling's exit from the ERM in the late summer/autumn of 1992.

I think you have to go back to the early eighties for higher than that (when the government was pursuing a rigorously moneterist policy and had interest rates much higher than they ought to have been).

Sterling was US$2.40 when the Bretton Woods system collapsed in 1971, and was devalued in two stages from over US$4 immediately after WW2! Until recently the phrase 'long term decline' was rather apt - at least we've not had to knock multiple zeros off the figures like many continental currencies though.

 

[GeckoTime]

"It just seems to me that everyone must be short Usd at the moment "

Peter I think that's what's driving it!! (just like with the dow where everyone is long, however irrational it may be from a fundamental perspective)

 

[Dow Dog]

I was reading somewhere last night that we can expect more dollar erosion ( but probably not a collapse ) and that we can expect another 18 months of dollar weakness.