Complete,tested FX systems for sale

[alchemillia]

I have not traded for over one year and devoted myself to developing strict trading strategies. I traded prior to this with little success and finally realised the importance of a complete, tested and robust strategy (as well as psychology and initial capital)
It is this last item which I lack.

I have developed at least 5 different trading strategies, all for Forex and I attach a graphical summary of one. Each system is tested in excel so there is no room for error.
Each system has passed Monte Carlo analysis at 100% confidence. most of the systems are based on setting entry short/long limits and stops and trades are exited at specific price or time profit targets or stops.

I also have 4 Metatrader EA,s which all show excellent returns on the platform with maximum confidence.
Overall it has taken me over 2 years to develop these strategies and I have ran and tested over 6,000 ideas to get 7 that worked. I say 7 and yet I am only offering 5 for sale - that is because 2 of them are priceless and I would not sell them for any money.

I have no real idea on price but my time and effort is worth quite a bit and feel I should look for £5000 for each system and perhaps an offer for the lot of 5.
Some of them are trending, 2 are counter trend and at least one is based on intraday volatility.
I am only willing to sell these strategies to 1 person and would need an understanding that they would not be re-sold. Naturally however they would be your do do as you will so I couldn't stop you.

I am happy to answer any questions from those who are seriously interested but I would ask that those who have the funds to purchase a system and fund an account only enquire. Additionally if you are a complete novice it is unlikely these systems, however robust, are for you as you may yet have to learn the nature of ramdomness and the markets.
It was never my intention to offer any of these for sale but I am left with 2 options. Sell a system or 2 or get a job- yuck!

You can post here, send me a private message or mail me at
[email protected]

Thanks
Padraig

 

[pssonice]

u ve to increase your credibilty by some RT entries

the feature "Journal" of this community is offering such an opportunity esp. for guys like u

 

[hornblower]

Why do you need to sell ?

If its so good ,just open a spread bet account , and trade the system
and make your money that way

 

[JTrader]

Hi Alche

yes if you have developed such good trading systems that you presumably have confidence in, why do you need to sell them?

Presumably you are selling these strategies to make money. But if you are confident that the user of them will make a profit, why not just open a spreadbet account yourself and compound the winnings that your winning strategies will make?

This way, you'll be a millionaire in no time, trading forex.

Surely if you had such confidence in your strats this is what you would do?

If you did not have such confidence in your strats. could/would/does this explain why you are trying to offload them here?

The forex market is such a huge market anyway. If you gave your strategies away for free, and 100 people were to trade them, would it really make a difference to your ability to trade them yourself? I doubt it.

You could post them on T2W for free, if you are mainly interested in helping people succeed.

£5000 is a HUGE amount of money for any strategy/s.

You say your options are to sell your hugely successful systems, or get a job. Why don't you make your job TRADING your hugely successful systems. That way you kill two birds with one stone - you make money and become a rich man and you keep yourself busy.

Isn't the reason you spent the last year designing these systems so that you can make money by trading them, thus being self-employable?

All questions above are serious and sincere.

Many thanks
JT.

 

[rtsaur]

Why don't you ask the buyer to open a £5000 SB account trading your strategies and split the profit say 50-50. In this case you get your money for your hard work and the buyer has his protection- he can choose to abandon your strategies if the fund drops for example below £3000.

 

[hornblower]

the forx factory there are lots of systems there for free
If you think you are going to sell this system for £5000
I should have a rethink if I was you
http://www.forexfactory.com/forum.php

 

[alchemillia]

Hi. thanks for your replies.
I agree with all that you have said.
Hornblower - you are absolutely right. I have bought various ebooks, trading scam systems and programs and now understand that if they were so good why would anyone in their right mind want to sell them. In the end none of them worked for me, or perhaps for anyone.

I decided I needed to have thorough and robustly tested systems and this is now what I have but I simply do not have the funds to set up a trading account. (yes not even £500)
For the various systems I would need the maximum drawdown, plus margins, plus working capital. For me to make a living form the systems I would need an initial account of several thousand pounds.
Yes, I can trade micro lots via Oanda but how will I live in the time being? Any system need trading capital and I do not have it. It also needs time and I will have none unless I trade for a living.

JTrader
Yes, I do intent my job to be trading and to do that I need initial capital. £5000 is a lot of money yes, but relative to the robustness and equity curve of the systems I believe it is not. As I allready said I really have no idea on what they are worth, perhaps more, perhaps less. There are people who have £25,000 or more to invest and with any of these systems it it my genuine belief that they would make a healthy, sustained living from trading just one of these systems. If I had this sort of capital (or one fifth of it) I would not be selling anything.

Post the systems for free? I have been a member of this forum and many other for a long time and have tried countless systems published but they do not stack up. Some work for a while and many will never work. This is my personal view. If there are free systems that have stacked up under scrutiny available on any forums, than more fool me.

So, you might say, "If I had some excellent systems, I would beg, borrow, steal to get enough to trade them". if the bank would give me money, I would take it, I am a bit stubborn and at my age I don't think asking friends or parents for money is apprioprate and I refuse to steal.

Additionally I will say that I am not only offering systems for sale, along side is the method for developing them which would open up the oppertunity fo develop their own versions if they so wish allong with all information I have garnished. You may say that this cannot be much as I am broke but remember that I have only had a job for 9 months in the last 4 years and no initial savings. I spent at least 10 hours per day testing different strategies. None of what I have rely on common technical indicators or entry/exit points. I.E - no rsi, no stochastics, no macds, cci,s etc. They do have SMA,s as filters only.

I am open to other alternatives. Perhaps someone would be willing to open up an account (£20000) for me to trade where I share 50% of the profits and keep my systems. To some this may seem absurd or it may be that someone has a solution to my dillema that eludes me.

I look forward to your further replies.

Pad

 

[trendie]

alchemillia,

you seem to have spent an incredible amount of time developing your systems, and if you spent 4 years, then you clearly have a passion for trading.

but, as hornblower has pointed out, there are many workable, and free, systems about.

someone who has diligently saved up 20K or 25K will not spend 5K without some asurances or trial period.
the old "past performance does not guarantee future profits" will not wash.
any kind of written guarantee may open you up to litigation if the system doesnt work.
(you are still going to have declare it as (taxable) income, anyway.)

if you get someone to agree to a 50-50 profit-split, they will probably ask for 2 months worth of real-time calls, where no money is risked, to establish whether its a good idea to begin with.
No fear of being able to reverse engineer, as you dont use conventional TA.

In fact, you could start a journal of live-calls her at T2W.

I think you should focus that 10-hours-a-day energy on a short-term job, and build up a trading account.

You want it all, right now.
You are placing too much reliance on some external event, like a white-knight coming along.
( "someone has a solution to my dillema " )
I think you should take control of the situation, and ask yourself, how you can build up a fund, and look for jobs that require minimal qualifications or experience. (sales? commissions-based, so you can earn more if you are good? rather than fixed-hourly wage)
And start saving.

hope that helps, and doesnt sound critical, and hope you see the constructiveness in it.

 

[rog1111]

I can fully empathise. A good system, if it's truly scalable to large position sizes, is potentially worth a LOT of money IF it's been traded live with a fair sized pot (absolute min £1m), for a year at the very least. In this case then an annual ROI of >15% with 5 to 6% max drawdown and Sharpe >1.5 can take you an awful long way.

Otherwise you will inevitably run into a good degree of scepticism, which is a pity.

Good luck

rog1111

 

[alchemillia]

Trendie
Thanks for your input. yes I do see the constructiveness of it and you have made very valid points.

I have just read a thread from a forum where a strategy is being offered. I will not say which forum or which strategy but suffice to say it is one of the most read in that particular forum and has 5 stars, all smiley faces and thumbs up.
I have ran a backtest over the last 4 years on EURUSD 4h data and the stastics look terrific but the graph shows the real picture. For over 1 year the system consistently lost money. yes, it may well turn around but would anyone put money on it? I probably would have years ago but not anymore.
I say this only to demonstrate to beginners the need to do thorough research into a strategy and draw one's own conclusion. It is only through this that the necessary faith can be achieved both in oneself and the system. Without this trading is gambling.

Rog111. thankyou.
I think I will go out to the employment agency!

Pad

 

[fat chance]

I notice that the average win is not much larger than the average loss - how many "bid-ask spreads" does the difference correpond to? The sensitivity to the trading system parameters is also an important thing for you to show us... tested 6000 to get 7 that "work" sounds a bit like over-fitting.

 

[alchemillia]

It's gotten too late to go into town now!

I attach part of the excel sheet for the system described in my first post. The average long trade shows 52 pips profit and the average short trade 24. This is 13 and 6 times the spread (excluding slippage).

This system (shown in my first post) is based on the daily entries on the GBPUSD. You can manually enter one hour per day or every hour per day when a signal is given either in MT4 or a spreadsheet. Different timed hours give different results and none are loosers. I attach the MT4 results for 7am. (picked this randomly). It has a 500 pip stop and 500 pip take profit. Someone trading it can add trailing stops etc which should improve the results. MT4 has a maximum 90% confidence possible and the results are shown by mumber of bars tested (hourly) which equated to 724 days.
It is based on this premise. If for the last 5 you bought the GBPUSD daily and held for x number of days you would make over 15,000 pips profit (less spread and slip). Therefore I tasked myself with finding something which outperformed the longs and showed acceptable shorts profit. In this manner I could be satisified that the system was not dependant on market direction.
None of the systems are market dependant. Anyone can write a profitable system showing excellent results on a market that has mostly risen but it is necessary for any good system to show results in the opposite direction. In essence bucking the general market direction where necessary.
Of 6000 strategies I tested I had approx 200 which were overall winners but with larger drawdowns, too many/too few trades, bumpy equity curve etc. On avarage I would only accept those that showed regular returns as I believe my (and any traders) psychology would not allow him to continue with any system that had question marks. It is these 'questions' that are the downfall of almost all trading failures. The settings within this particular system (of which there are 5 (two long, two short and 1 filter) can be changed up or down by up to 25% and it is still profitable. (although not as much) This is a sign of a non optimised system.

The other 5800 were in the main all manner of standard indicators. Although I do have my own variations of some of them, every single 'regular' indicatior available resulted in a catastrophic loss or drawdown at some stage. Knowing this I knew my brain would never allow me to trade any of these either to fruition or fall.

You will notice discrepancies between the spreadsheet results and MT4 results simply because the unreliability of backtesting in any software application bar excel (in my experience)
where all the data is fixed and non moving. EG there is no question whether the close is above a moving average in a spreadsheet whereas visually it is a different matter as thoughts, hopes and fears come into play and we can see them clearly alongside the moving average and the price.

 

[fat chance]

Interesting stuff, alchemillia. I haven't looked at FX but it's an area that I'm thinking of spending some time on. I should explain that I'm not interested in purchasing any systems; my personal interest is in understanding all the ways in which backtesting results can be misleading.

Maybe a simple strategy that buys below a moving average could outperform a "buy every day" strategy over a five-year bull market. It's very nice that the short trades also make a profit though. My Monday-morning brain can't quite figure it out, but isn't there something worrying about the fact that the average win is about 25% higher than the average loss, but the average profit on long trades is twice that for short trades (given that cable has risen 40% in five years)? If you take the same system with the same parameters, but flip all the data upside down or subtract the average trend over the whole dataset, does it still work?

Since your system only has five parameters but the backtesting has been performed over several hundred trades, I can believe that it's not overfitting the data. The problem is the 5993 systems that you rejected... it's as if the model itself is a parameter that was fitted. You seem to know what you're talking about so I assume you optimise on one dataset and evaluate on another though. Anyway, the only way to convice people that your system really works will be to post a couple of hundred live trades on this forum. Best of luck!

 

[alchemillia]

Hello fat chance

One interesting element to this and many trading systems is their correlation between markets. Ehen you mention flipping the data this is in some way what the market offers us allready.

The particular system I posted is based on the GBPUSD. It is fair to say that as a very general rule the EURUSD follows a very similar pattern and the USDCHF follows a reversal of this.
This correlation inevitably happens in steps. EG. Today the EURUSD may make a new high, the GBPUSD may have made only a 3 monthly high yesterday and the CHF may make it's new low tomorrow.
This correlation may be visually apparent but it is also mathmatically obvious if even 2 decades of data are worked on. If we have a system that works on one currency well but to a lesser extent on another (in reverse for CHF) than an obvious sollution is to look for a "shift" element. Once this "time shift" element is found there will be a window where trading these shift possibilities on shorter timeframes yields exemplary results. THis time shift as ,with all life, degrades thrrough time. It is a form of form of pairs trading. A real world example of this is last week.
GBPUSD - 2/7 HI 1.9746
EURUSD - 2/7 HI 1.3064
668 points difference. What has the max and min difference been in the last 5 years. What has happened when this has norrowed and widdened. Does its effectiveness degrade and improve according to the time difference from the last occourance and the percentage of difference divided by price multiplied by time. The sole reason I would have for doing this is to find a real time "real price" Once you have this theoriitical "real price" even an SMA will make money along side a step value. It is my strong belief that no accepted "regular" TA will make money over the long run.( I call this indicator entrophy) We therefore must think differently. In essence here I have given you a new technical indicator which if you follow will (given sufficient study) yield a plethera of ideas from which to form great systems and (for me) an understanding of the markets and risk. This is trader as detective.
When I say I regected thousands of systems I mean this.
I upload 2 to 4 different sets of the same data. I check for spikes, errors. There is absolutely no optimisation here. I apply a simple trading system which are standard ones available on any forum. 60% of the time they make money but are untradeable for me. I run an analysis whereby I reduce or expand volatility to see what happens. This may of may not happen in the future. I note the different individual results from each trade. This is evidence (to me) where that system was inadvertently optimised at those particular times. I am left with thousands of actual time/price windows where something out of the ordinary has happened. Again these "windows" are oppertunities upon whch to base a new type of analysis. All of this follows the premise that the market will never be the same again so the past needs to be reexamined in a different light. I do not change the previous data and no system is optimised for the past but it does ( I believe) have an ability to cope with changes in market (direction, volatility,multi-colinearity, time degredation etc)

I guess I haven't really answered your questions and rambled on a bit but here you will find something unusual if you were to analise the data in the manner suggested. I will not however explain further, we must all find our individual own system.
As you may guess I enjoy this detective work and actually writing here has made me realise how much.

Pad

 

[fat chance]

You seem to know what you're talking about so I assume you optimise on one dataset and evaluate on another

I upload 2 to 4 different sets of the same data. I check for spikes, errors. There is absolutely no optimisation here.

Just to clarify, I meant selecting a model and optimising its parameters using one set of data (from Jan 2001 to Jan 2004 say) and then seeing how well the optimised model works on another set (from Jan 2004 to the present for example) without further tweaking. Or choose odd years for the optimisation and even years for the evaluation, or whatever. From my experience, using only one set of data and hoping that the resulting nearly-monotonically-upwards profit variation implies that it will work in the future can turn out to be a tad disappointing. Another thing to do is to create some pseudo-random data that still has some of the characteristics of the real market. I like to chop up the real data into sections that are much shorter than the typical trade duration, and then shuffle them and maybe randomly flip some upside down. If your optimisation procedure convinces you that you can make money on this new data, then you know it's dodgy.

 

[jm99]

does your strat enter/exit with market or stop/limit orders?? also slippage assumed only $1.6 per contract? real time live testing v.important with these types of strats, as a pip of slippage out will soon flat line the equity curve (i'm only saying as this has happened to me many times!)

posting trades in real time, a suggested previously, is your best bet imo. good luck