B
Black Swan
cool, yep closing roughly half makes a lot of sense imho, and I broke my own rules in closing early, (fwiw reckon you were right to stay in), but this morning was one of those days I (kinda) wished I didn't trade so many pairs, thought I'd use my laptop, couldn't close a couple of positions on EUR/USD and USD/CHF as it crashed, 2 minutes to get on another pc but heh, more profit...not much more but still...
Talk to you later...gonna/gotta rip some cash out of these markets...
Vaco
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Week 3 comes to an end and I survived the half term week with a stagering 35 pips profit, although not on target for the week it follows a 4 day losing streak (thurs-tues) in which I was down over 150 pips.
Was not my best week of trading, had my little blow up on tuesday and traded monday morning without realising it was a bank holiday.
My maximum drawdown on the account due to the bad run was 11% and I'm now up 28% since journal start.
If all my drawdowns are no more then 10% and I manage to make 20%+per month I will be very happy and on target to achieve my goals.
Was not my best week of trading, had my little blow up on tuesday and traded monday morning without realising it was a bank holiday.
My maximum drawdown on the account due to the bad run was 11% and I'm now up 28% since journal start.
If all my drawdowns are no more then 10% and I manage to make 20%+per month I will be very happy and on target to achieve my goals.
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forexkunta
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Vaco,
Have you ever thought about using divergence on a MACD to look for your exits?
If is ok with you will post a chart. Don't want to post charts unless it is ok.
Regards,
Kent
Have you ever thought about using divergence on a MACD to look for your exits?
If is ok with you will post a chart. Don't want to post charts unless it is ok.
Regards,
Kent
forexkunta
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Great. Just to let you know, I am into Elliott Wave analysis. Bear in mind that waves 3 and c are usually the strongest waves in a 5 wave move and a 3 wave correction. i have noted the divergence that usually sets up between wave 3 and 5 and wave c on a 15 minute chart. Currently the last move long on cable is a correction, and I believe that it is about complete with 3 reasons behind that. 1. Wave 4 of a move will generally retrace 38.2% of the move down. 2. Negative divergence has set up in the last 5 hours of this move long, notice the 18:45 candle is the strongest on the MACD, and the 21:45 candle has a higher high, but on the MACD is a weaker candle, 3. Waves A and C are now the same length. Actually wave C is about 8 pips longer than wave A. I have annotated the 15 minute chart with the wave counts as I see them and added the red trendlines to show the moves. The green trendlines are to illustrate the divergence in the move. Keep in mind, that the wave count could be wrong, EW does not give definitive moves but just provides probabilities.
Regards,
Kent
P.S. Good thread
Regards,
Kent
P.S. Good thread
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Vaco
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Kent,
I'm aware from the sniper thread that your a big fan of EW. If I was to use anything like that it would probably be 1-2-3 set ups, easier to see forming and less rules to follow. your chart and notes don't really help me see where i would exit without getting into EW.
I'm more interested in price patterns
cable ave daily range is 160 but most days it will swing around in 40-60 pip moves in the morning before setting off to complete the daily range after 11am.
so for my morning trades i'm more inclined to take my profits when it starts to slow down and after 11am i'm looking to take the rest of the range.
The sell on your chart, is that a pending order or are you in?
From the PA I can not see why you would place a pending sell there as it a support/resistance level . I have the same issue with your stop, If i was trading i would be looking to go long on a reversal where your sell is with your stop as a PT as it should be rejected if the down move continues.
As you have drawn the fibs then you will have also noted that your stop is at the 61.8 retracement level. Again this is normally where fibo's would enter to the short side rather then place a stop.
I'm aware from the sniper thread that your a big fan of EW. If I was to use anything like that it would probably be 1-2-3 set ups, easier to see forming and less rules to follow. your chart and notes don't really help me see where i would exit without getting into EW.
I'm more interested in price patterns
cable ave daily range is 160 but most days it will swing around in 40-60 pip moves in the morning before setting off to complete the daily range after 11am.
so for my morning trades i'm more inclined to take my profits when it starts to slow down and after 11am i'm looking to take the rest of the range.
The sell on your chart, is that a pending order or are you in?
From the PA I can not see why you would place a pending sell there as it a support/resistance level . I have the same issue with your stop, If i was trading i would be looking to go long on a reversal where your sell is with your stop as a PT as it should be rejected if the down move continues.
As you have drawn the fibs then you will have also noted that your stop is at the 61.8 retracement level. Again this is normally where fibo's would enter to the short side rather then place a stop.
forexkunta
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Well,
Yeah I am in, just consider that as one of those trades that should have waited. It is a very small position, so a loss will not hurt much. The reasoning of the s/l is two fold. After I realized that wave c had not yet completed, I raised my s/l to get above 2 areas. 1. to make sure I was well above the terminus of wave 4, which is where the total retrace should not exceed. 2. Above the wave 1 low, where wave 4 should not encroach, and still be a valid correction. I am pretty certain that we are in wave 4 of the overall move down, and still have wave 5 to go, so I just dont want to get stopped out prematurely. I also should have known better than to take a position coming up on the London close, and the entry into the Twilight Zone. On Sunday open, I will take an additional position short based on the reasons in the above post. The s/l on that position should not be more than about 20 pips, which will make my risk:reward much better.
I tend to be more of a trend trader than a day trader, however I will always take what I can get.
As you have probably surmised from the Sniper thread, my trading career has been less than a year so far, so I still have much to learn.
Now, on to the divergence exit, If you will look at the green trendlines, it shows where negative divergence sets up on the moves. When that happens, you can exit and reverse your trade and be spot on. Go back and look at the history of the divergence and you will see what I mean. But, since you are a successful trader, and have much more experiance than I, then I am only offering suggestions. This seems to work for me, along with Sniper and EW, so I guess I have taken these things and made them work for me. I deleted Sniper from the chart to make things eaiser to see.
Happy trading this week.
Regards,
Kent
Yeah I am in, just consider that as one of those trades that should have waited. It is a very small position, so a loss will not hurt much. The reasoning of the s/l is two fold. After I realized that wave c had not yet completed, I raised my s/l to get above 2 areas. 1. to make sure I was well above the terminus of wave 4, which is where the total retrace should not exceed. 2. Above the wave 1 low, where wave 4 should not encroach, and still be a valid correction. I am pretty certain that we are in wave 4 of the overall move down, and still have wave 5 to go, so I just dont want to get stopped out prematurely. I also should have known better than to take a position coming up on the London close, and the entry into the Twilight Zone. On Sunday open, I will take an additional position short based on the reasons in the above post. The s/l on that position should not be more than about 20 pips, which will make my risk:reward much better.
I tend to be more of a trend trader than a day trader, however I will always take what I can get.
As you have probably surmised from the Sniper thread, my trading career has been less than a year so far, so I still have much to learn.
Now, on to the divergence exit, If you will look at the green trendlines, it shows where negative divergence sets up on the moves. When that happens, you can exit and reverse your trade and be spot on. Go back and look at the history of the divergence and you will see what I mean. But, since you are a successful trader, and have much more experiance than I, then I am only offering suggestions. This seems to work for me, along with Sniper and EW, so I guess I have taken these things and made them work for me. I deleted Sniper from the chart to make things eaiser to see.
Happy trading this week.
Regards,
Kent
forexkunta
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Vaco
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Will look at the divergence and see how it sits with me.
As for been a successful trader, I wouldn't quite claim that title yet, experience well yeah i'm very experienced at losing money trading
If your trading less then a year and are profitable consistantly already then your learning curve has been much steeper and less painful then mine.
ps
nice entry on the second short I would wish you luck but i've just gone long:whistling
forexkunta
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Thanks on the entry, good luck on your "long?". I'm guessing you took that based on pivots.
As you can see with the Magenta trendlines, the negative divergence got pretty extreme as the top formed. I was only off by 23 pips. When the divergence sets in like that, a reversal is imminent. Trading divergence is a possibility even if you are not counting waves. Just have to be watching. I usually run on the 1H chart, and if I start suspecting divergence setting in, then I drop to a lower t/f to get a better feel.
Kent
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forexkunta
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