Beware of spikes - This shows how the markets can get you no matter what your thinking - for a day trader is it wide or close stops this occurred yesteday 2nd Feb 2007
I am new to this forex trading but that does appear to be at the exact time that the Employment Situation Report is given.. Window was only 30 minutes.. hmmm.. I'll see you next First Friday at the same time.
The NFP is always good for some vol and always bad for my statistical models...
As it is 'expected' vol however it is easy to factor in so no one with any common sense has stops within 150 points of the money at 1.29pm on the given Friday.
Here is a link to charts showing the daily ranges for the majors on Non-Farm Payroll days since 2001.
As a matter of interest, it took a little bit of effort to ensure that the correct Fridays were selected each month, viz. the third Friday following the reference week of the 12th day of the preceding month.
Not nearly the horsepower of NFP. Having said that, the market has gotten considerably more stable, i.e, , NFP spiking for 200 in a matter of minutes in years past.
Try this when event trading: Do not enter the market any earlier than E +15. Give market time to digest data and settle in. Somewhere in the 15 - 30 minute window after the event, a trend will/should be established.