Breaking my rule if Oil drops to $15p/b

[MasterOfCoin]

But Silver is surely much less likely to be "confiscated" if the shit hits the fan?
It is much less valuable than gold.


It makes me laugh when I think of how fragile the whole game is.
Money created out of thin air... the system only working because we all agree that this essentially otherwise worthless piece of paper is worth something.

I mean... we have paper money...
But it could easily (well, maybe not easily) be sea shells as our currency!
At one point in time, sea shells we currency for some!

Yes, Silver is less likely to be confiscated.
It's less valuable because it lacks durability- it tarnishes (oxidizes) quickly thus losing it's lustre and purity.
However, it has historically been used to back paper 'money' with real value and at such times is much more likely to be confiscated/ requisitioned or otherwise stolen from you.

What you are forgetting in your reflections on the farce of the whole game, is that the inherantly flawed system only works because you are obliged, basically forced, to use it. - The designated 'fiat' currency being declared 'legal tender' which makes it the only means by which payment can be settled that is recognized in law. Thus you cannot use the law to pursue payment owed in sea shells, Nowler coins, or dare I say it, gold, only in legal tender.

And that, essentially is the flip side of the fraud that allows the whole system of worthless money to function. You use it because you have to. The state declares fake money as the official and only currency recognized by law plus of course outlaws the use of any other currency and in tandem designates a privately owned central bank as the only entity allowed to supply print or produce the declared currency. Wallah! You have money, lol. It says so, look..... 'I promise to pay the bearer on demand the sum of "value x" in other equally worthless pieces of paper to sum of that same value' hahahaha. Note that you don't get gold, sea shells, silver or anything else actually valuable or real, just other worthless promises.

The whole set up is just a blatantly fraudulent ponzi scheme that exists to transfer wealth from those obligated to use the currency (that's you and me) to those that more directly get to use it closer to its point of origin. Meaning get to spend it before its value is eroded by the inflation built in to the process. - Money is not simply 'created', oh no, it is created repayable at interest, lol. An amusing quirk of this creation process is that the 'interest' that is required to be repaid in addition to the original sum is not created, and thus cannot in actuality be repaid, Hence more debt at interest will need to be created to facilitate the original repayment ... and more the next .... and next ... and so on. Ever escalating in size exponentially due to the compounding of interest. Doomed to spiral out of all comprehension and any prospect of stable value over time by design.

And this, we are told by our wise and benevolent masters, is the best and most assuredly greatest and fairest way to facilitate the exchange of goods and services in a thriving and stable environment.

If you are not rolling on the floor laughing yet, then you haven't understood how absurd the whole thing is.

🙄

 

[Nowler]

This totally flew under my radar: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-oil-yuan-exclusive-idUSKBN1H51FA

Granted, Oil was not something that I was considering at the time, but this could have colossal implications on just about everything!

I picked up on this after watching the following link from Oct/Nov 2019:

Obviously the USD is the international currency... but can any of you shine some light on how moving some of the global oil purchases (as in the link) would impact things?

The USD being the world reserve currency means (amongst other thing) that the USD is sought after in general, but certainly in times of uncertainty. Right?

So as China looks set to be the one that takes the U.S's place at the top of the pile of safest securities, this must mean that US bonds will decrease in popularity, and Chinese increase?

 

[darktone]

are you still long WTI with Oanda?

 

[Nowler]

are you still long WTI with Oanda?

Yes, Sir
I just came across this today

 

[darktone]

Yes, Sir

pm sent 👍

 

[Nowler]

This totally flew under my radar: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-oil-yuan-exclusive-idUSKBN1H51FA

How wasn't this massive news!!?

 

[J Livermore]

Obviously the USD is the international currency... but can any of you shine some light on how moving some of the global oil purchases (as in the link) would impact things?

The USD being the world reserve currency means (amongst other thing) that the USD is sought after in general, but certainly in times of uncertainty. Right?

So as China looks set to be the one that takes the U.S's place at the top of the pile of safest securities, this must mean that US bonds will decrease in popularity, and Chinese increase?

Nowler,

I read the link...

If Putin had any common sense he would realize that an ascendent China could someday pose a threat to Russia’s security. Whether it be economic or military.

During the cold war the two nations weren’t exactly buddy buddies. Back in the day, the rumor was that the Soviet politburo had a secret vote on whether or not to have a surprise nuclear strike on China. Supposedly the vote failed because they didn’t know what the U.S. response would be.

I always wondered if that rumor was true or not.

 

[Nowler]

Nowler,

I read the link...

If Putin had any common sense he would realize that an ascendent China could someday pose a threat to Russia’s security. Whether it be economic or military.

During the cold war the two nations weren’t exactly buddy buddies. Back in the day, the rumor was that the Soviet politburo had a secret vote on whether or not to have a surprise nuclear strike on China. Supposedly the vote failed because they didn’t know what the U.S. response would be.

I always wondered if that rumor was true or not.

Is it much different than the threat the U.S poses?
The U.S are far more aggressive than the Chinese.

Wasn't there a few times where mistakes were made interpreting things, and fingers were hovering over "The Red Button"?
I think there was a simulation playing out at one point, and it looked like another nation was after firing multiple missiles. They realised the error in time and avoiding retaliating.

Last time I checked, we are 120 seconds away from midnight on the doomsday clock

 

[Nowler]

On the topic of oil however,
I see we are pulling back a bit - Which I was expecting, so I sold some of my position and am looking to buy in a little lower than where it's currently at.

I spoke with my broker today, and apparently the stats they were providing me were wrong.
I am pretty much on the button of 10% off breaking even as a trader.
Which is still awesome considering where I was... but very disappointing as their stats indicated that I had just turned profitable...

At least now I know exactly where I am at after going through my statements since 2017

 

[J Livermore]

Is it much different than the threat the U.S poses?
The U.S are far more aggressive than the Chinese.

Wasn't there a few times where mistakes were made interpreting things, and fingers were hovering over "The Red Button"?
I think there was a simulation playing out at one point, and it looked like another nation was after firing multiple missiles. They realised the error in time and avoiding retaliating.

Last time I checked, we are 120 seconds away from midnight on the doomsday clock

I was talking about the risk of future incursions into Russia’s territory itself. I didn’t make myself clear enough. Currently, the U.S. only poses an economic threat to Russia’s homeland. Russia’s nuclear weapons make a US occupation of Russian territory with today’s technology a near impossibility.

In the future I do not see the U.S. economy growing fast enough to support scientific research capable of beating Russian scientific research.That plus the fact that our military is too small to be an occupier because it’s based more on technology than man power. We couldn’t even occupy Iraq or Afghanistan without all sorts of trouble. That’s a (dirty) job for infantry not technology.

China on the other hand not only has a big enough population to occupy any territory it wants but it’s economy is growing so much faster than Russia’s that it’s scientific research may be able to better any Russian weapons (nuclear or otherwise) in the future.

He who researches the military technology of the future the best may very well rule large parts of the world.

 

[J Livermore]

Nowler,

Do you have any exit plans for your trades in the oil market or are you just waiting for signs that the rising market may someday be getting old?

I was just wondering.

 

[Nowler]

Nowler,

Do you have any exit plans for your trades in the oil market or are you just waiting for signs that the rising market may someday be getting old?

I was just wondering.

I'm fully out at the moment actually 🙂 Closed the position out about an hour ago because I didn't want to pay the extortionate financing charge, lol (been doing it the last few days)

I'll enter again with a small position when the market opens again in 10mins

I might leave a position open over the weekend due to the OPEC meeting Saturday - not sure yet

The rally has been great, but I suspect we will range a little now (and I don't want to pay financing charges when I am not making money). The next week should begin to indicate how severe the second wave of covid will be (which would be bad for oil demand).

 

[Nowler]

I'm definitely interested for as long as it's under $40.
In fact... even sub 55 sounds good to me

 

[Nowler]

Not quite sure what to do with the Oil trade now.
I booked profits just before the Oil market closed (to avoid the financing fee)... left a very small position on.

I dont know whether to jump back in and size up just yet

 

[Nowler]

I still see $40+, but i'd be surprised if there wasn't a sizeable correction.
It's been a one way street the last few weeks, but we still have oversupply.

If all goes well in the next week or 2, and business really get back online, then that's demand right there. But isn't Iran having a second wave of C19? That's worse than the first...

OPEC have not kicked up any sand lately either, which is unusual.
Compliance was stressed in the most recent meeting, after some considerable non-compliance by Iraq and Nigeria.
Both nations agreed to not only stick with the cuts, but to make up the shortfall too, lol

If they couldn't meet the required cuts last time, then how can they do it this time, PLUS make up for the oversupply?

For now, I will keep a small long on at least.
But I am watching the emergence of a second wave of Covid, and thus, lockdown 2.0

 

[Nowler]

As I am online talking shit at the moment, I thought I should give a quick update on this oil trade.
I have been out of oil for about 2 weeks?? something like that...

I made phenomenal gains (up 40+% this year - though relative to my small capitalisation- i.e I am not getting the round in at the next T2W meet up I make it to, lol) on this position, but I got discouraged about 2 weeks ago.

We were already close to the $40 handle I was aiming for, and we got there way too quick!
You don't normally get such a concise correction in the markets (disclaimer - from my amateur experience) and considering this is OPEC+ we are talking about, you could get a Jew, a Catholic, a Muslim, and an Atheist to agree quicker!

I didn't see much point in 1) accruing the extortionate fee for holding the position after 10pm UK time each day when it wasn't likely to move much, and 2) the same risk reward just wasn't there anymore... I mean... at the time we had phenomenal up-side potential as a result of continued over production while at the same time trying to figure out where to store it.

Yes, demand picked up a little, but on one hand, the second wave was likely to come and bring with it reduced demand and add more pressure to the storage issue. On the other hand, we were back to pre-Covid levels, back where OPEC had their still remaining problems. This temporary agreement to cut production is not reliable.
And I have not even went into conspiracy theory zone yet where Saudi/Russia would rather ruin the US Shale.

Now we have the record high Covid numbers again (though be aware that the media is focusing on it being cases, not deaths - that's a key point to be aware of) in the US... we already saw the stupidity of humans during the hot weather, and the protests from the disgraceful killing of that man by the bellend in the cop uniform. The majority are usually wrong, and the concept of dumb money is not unique to this trading/investing game we play. This is life... we are outnumbered by morons. We have way bigger numbers of Covid to come! It will be interesting to see how the US behave during Independence Day... I still haven't gotten over the fact that we cancelled St. Paddy's Day 🙁

I can see global spikes in this virus.. I mean... at this stage this is not even a prediction... Iran, Germany, US... we are seeing it increase again, including the UK. I assume we wont over-react like we did initially. But I expect more slowdown, and I expect OPEC issues to come back again.

So until then, I am putting money into silver, and precious metal companies in light of all this funny money being printed by Central Banks, and the arificial supporting of the stock market. The economy is 100% in trouble... be under no illusion.
Are the CB's going to provide liquidity forever?

The ratio of Silver to Gold is way out of whack, which fit well with me as I can only afford silver, and that's where all the stupid money will go when they see the too expensive gold rising when the shit really hits the fan.

This blip we saw is covid related... I see no relieving the blatant problem economic problem we already had. In fact, we have exacerbated it - albeit postpone it an tiny amount longer.

I am not giving anyone advice, but I am storing my money in a Dragon Portfolio type way.

For fuck sake... look at what is happening with retail traders! lol (which ironically includes me)
Anyone else smell a bit of euphoria?

I don't rely on this much at all, but I can't help but sense that the information age has distorted the clean stages of a bubble (Displacement, Boom, Euphoria, Profit-Taking, and Panic). Just like once reliable patterns in our game... they all lose potency as more people get on-board. Which is probably why those that continue to evolve (ebb/flow) with the markets last longer than those who don't. Nothing last forever... but another important thing to remember is that history doesn't exactly repeat itself, but it rhymes!

 

[Nowler]

I'll stop editing to death that last post and just post the rest of my thoughts here.
Following on from the comment about my perceived euphoria in the markets...

Look at the amount of retail trading accounts opened since the covid shutdown.
Typically you see dumb money get into the market late, right?
The amount of RobinHood trading account that were opened by dumb money during what is supposed to be an unprecedented global economic shock is staggering! And you see them go for the likes of these massively risky moves... with the free money they were given by the gov. And this is nothing to do with the central banks!! This is the US Government, not the FED!!!

I have heard average Joe's say things during March like " the trick is to pile money in at the bottom of a decline" etc...
No, using this as a guide of what'happening is not a science... but I tell you one thing that I am certain of, and that's the dumb money is not the smart money 🙂

The history books WILL NOT read "During the Covid crisis, the global distribution of wealth was shifted from the haves, to the have-not's" 🙂

The election is right around the corner and the Government has about 3 Trillion $$ to flood the market with (no, not the Fed).

I am not claiming to know what is going to happen. I definitely do not!
But I can generally tell the difference between higher risk and low risk!

TLDR;
- Waiting on oil to correct significantly before jumping back in
- Currently loading up on Sliver and precious metal companies