As I am online talking shit at the moment, I thought I should give a quick update on this oil trade.
I have been out of oil for about 2 weeks?? something like that...
I made phenomenal gains (up 40+% this year - though relative to my small capitalisation- i.e I am not getting the round in at the next T2W meet up I make it to, lol) on this position, but I got discouraged about 2 weeks ago.
We were already close to the $40 handle I was aiming for, and we got there way too quick!
You don't normally get such a concise correction in the markets (disclaimer - from my amateur experience) and considering this is OPEC+ we are talking about, you could get a Jew, a Catholic, a Muslim, and an Atheist to agree quicker!
I didn't see much point in 1) accruing the extortionate fee for holding the position after 10pm UK time each day when it wasn't likely to move much, and 2) the same risk reward just wasn't there anymore... I mean... at the time we had phenomenal up-side potential as a result of continued over production while at the same time trying to figure out where to store it.
Yes, demand picked up a little, but on one hand, the second wave was likely to come and bring with it reduced demand and add more pressure to the storage issue. On the other hand, we were back to pre-Covid levels, back where OPEC had their still remaining problems. This temporary agreement to cut production is not reliable.
And I have not even went into conspiracy theory zone yet where Saudi/Russia would rather ruin the US Shale.
Now we have the record high Covid numbers again (though be aware that the media is focusing on it being cases, not deaths - that's a key point to be aware of) in the US... we already saw the stupidity of humans during the hot weather, and the protests from the disgraceful killing of that man by the bellend in the cop uniform. The majority are usually wrong, and the concept of dumb money is not unique to this trading/investing game we play. This is life... we are outnumbered by morons. We have way bigger numbers of Covid to come! It will be interesting to see how the US behave during Independence Day... I still haven't gotten over the fact that we cancelled St. Paddy's Day
I can see global spikes in this virus.. I mean... at this stage this is not even a prediction... Iran, Germany, US... we are seeing it increase again, including the UK. I assume we wont over-react like we did initially. But I expect more slowdown, and I expect OPEC issues to come back again.
So until then, I am putting money into silver, and precious metal companies in light of all this funny money being printed by Central Banks, and the arificial supporting of the stock market. The economy is 100% in trouble... be under no illusion.
Are the CB's going to provide liquidity forever?
The ratio of Silver to Gold is way out of whack, which fit well with me as I can only afford silver, and that's where all the stupid money will go when they see the too expensive gold rising when the shit really hits the fan.
This blip we saw is covid related... I see no relieving the blatant problem economic problem we already had. In fact, we have exacerbated it - albeit postpone it an tiny amount longer.
I am not giving anyone advice, but I am storing my money in a Dragon Portfolio type way.
For fuck sake... look at what is happening with retail traders! lol (which ironically includes me)
Anyone else smell a bit of euphoria?
I don't rely on this much at all, but I can't help but sense that the information age has distorted the clean stages of a bubble (Displacement, Boom, Euphoria, Profit-Taking, and Panic). Just like once reliable patterns in our game... they all lose potency as more people get on-board. Which is probably why those that continue to evolve (ebb/flow) with the markets last longer than those who don't. Nothing last forever... but another important thing to remember is that history doesn't exactly repeat itself, but it rhymes!