Bottom Is In Place, Volume , Trin Confirm

[vergis92]

Markets seem to have finally made a bottom that's both from a fundamental and technical view on volume, as long as the market rallies not steeper than 45 degrees
it won't look back for months

I get the same signals I got just before the Iraq invasion day, this has got to be the bottom!

market doesn't like uncertainty like 'there may be a war' as soon as war became certain that uncertainty
was removed,









CHAMPION CAPITAL | Forecasting the US markets

 

[Trading2k]

I think we are very close and couldn't see the FTSE 100 below 3500 but this may be the low this year before the Christmas rally (If we get one).

 

[hwsteele]

If you don't mind my asking what

"I get the same signals I got just before the Iraq invasion day, this has got to be the bottom!"

the signal was? if you don't want to say I will understand but would love to know,
Thanks in advance

 

[JoeShmoe]

Markets seem to have finally made a bottom that's both from a fundamental and technical view on volume, as long as the market rallies not steeper than 45 degrees
it won't look back for months

I get the same signals I got just before the Iraq invasion day, this has got to be the bottom!

market doesn't like uncertainty like 'there may be a war' as soon as war became certain that uncertainty
was removed,


CHAMPION CAPITAL | Forecasting the US markets

Disagree personally -- I think we retest the 7800 mark and then make a new low shortly after the US election

 

[tape reader]

I agree with you JoeShmoe.
Personally I think we'll bottom between November and December at around 7500.

 

[JoeShmoe]

Yep, a perfect W shaped bottom, so we have one more rally, one more big sell (capitualtion) and then the markets price in long term recovery

 

[vergis92]

If you don't mind my asking what

"I get the same signals I got just before the Iraq invasion day, this has got to be the bottom!"

the signal was? if you don't want to say I will understand but would love to know,
Thanks in advance

ok, one indicator is this, the 13 day average of 'the arms index' trin
of the NYSE, it has an over 90% success rate, whenever this average reaches
or exceeds 1.5 it signals that there's no more selling to come,

other indicators are the way volume expands relative to price range but are
ambiguous, harder to spot

and investment banks reports also confirm this bottom fundamentally speaking...
so I'm seriously ready to go long

 

[Rhody Trader]

market doesn't like uncertainty like 'there may be a war' as soon as war became certain that uncertainty was removed,

The implication to this statement is that the uncertainty has been removed from the market. It has? This isn't a binary event like the start of a war. A major problem right now is a lack of forward visibility. That's tending to keep people away.

 

[vergis92]

I agree with you JoeShmoe.
Personally I think we'll bottom between November and December at around 7500.

from a seasonal factor perspective,
big lows are made in march and October, so I'm holding the trigger to go long,
mondays sharp rally didn't add up to any technical indicator, I stayed out ,
but now selling, technically it really looks overdone after wednesday's retracement

 

[JoeShmoe]

so I'm holding the trigger to go long,

And youre not the only one. Clearly these days there are many many more people with money in the markets, inc large instis and they are all sitting finger on the button. Many would have bought last week and made profit but if this spikes downm agaon they take those profits and wait for 8000 to be breached again

While technical indicators are great and we should all use them, you also have to use commin sense and instinct when the markets as volatile as it is right now because youre guessing what wave youre in and where the patterns going. Throw in any piece of news being so emotionally reacted to and you have these wild swings. I think we still have some nasty news lurking out these somewhere from the credit crisis

I wont be long until we retest the lows and my guess today is short spike up with no volume followed by aother leg down (sound familiiar?)

 

[JoeShmoe]

my guess today is short spike up with no volume followed by aother leg down (sound familiiar?)

Hope y'all caught it :clap:

 

[tape reader]

I wouldn't go short right now either (speaking long-term). I hurt myself many times selling bottoms.
I'm doing hard getting sell-signals while the downtrend is still on its way. Beware the short-cover rallies!
Looking for the long-term I look at weekly intervals. I'm not quite sure if it will look like a W-bottom.
My take is that the Dow will trade lower like it did between this August and October.
And looking at the weekly chart the stochastic doesn't look very oversold.
---

Hey, good call JoeShmoe!

 

[JoeShmoe]

Here comes the next leg up !