Binary bets /trading: Chancinng 0 or 100

[gerasmus]

What would you opinion be:
Say I'm monitoring several binaries.

Does the binary company (IG Index - Financial Spread Betting) 'manipulate' the binary odds to better fit their own agenda (not loosing money and make punters loose) as market conditions change?

What would the chances be of the following taking place, Binary 1 going to 100 and Binary 2 going to 0 ?

Binary 1:
Wall street cash to be + >200 which is trading at 60/67, time is 17:00GMT. What would the chances be of binary going to 0 or 100 ?
- Is the 60/67 the market perception that the bet would reach 100 ?

Binary 2:
Wall street cash +180-200, trading 28/35, same thing. Would this likely go to zero ?

Idea:
Would one buy Binary 1 hoping that it would go to 100 and sell Binary 2 hoping that it would reach zero ?

 

[Profitaker]

What would the chances be of the following taking place, Binary 1 going to 100 and Binary 2 going to 0 ?

Binary 1:
Wall street cash to be + >200 which is trading at 60/67, time is 17:00GMT. What would the chances be of binary going to 0 or 100 ?
- Is the 60/67 the market perception that the bet would reach 100 ?

Binary 2:
Wall street cash +180-200, trading 28/35, same thing. Would this likely go to zero ?

The chances would depend entirely on the volatility figure that you use to calculate a probability. If, IF the spreadbetters do exhibit any directional bias (due to the loading of their book) we are all free to buy what they offer cheap, and sell what they bid expensive. This applies not only to binaries, but options too.