"Big Playa" Performance Metrics

[Hotch]

So I was leafing through way of the turtle the other day, it's mentioned that they used 2% risk, and it seems to suggest 80-100% returns they got were brilliant.

So let's say that's 50R over a year right?

This seems a lot less impressive then what traders on here are doing.

Liquidity doesn't fit to me. So the only other thing I can think of is that their returns are smoother/more consistent/whatever,

So...why aren't you guys trading billions? Your sharpe/calmar/***** not big enough?


Those who ARE trading billions need not respond, and can simple wire me a few mill.

 

[Pazienza]

I haven't been going all that long. So probably millions year after next, billions within 5 years is a realistic goal for me.

 

[donaldduke]

So I was leafing through way of the turtle the other day, it's mentioned that they used 2% risk, and it seems to suggest 80-100% returns they got were brilliant.

So let's say that's 50R over a year right?

This seems a lot less impressive then what traders on here are doing.

Liquidity doesn't fit to me. So the only other thing I can think of is that their returns are smoother/more consistent/whatever,

So...why aren't you guys trading billions? Your sharpe/calmar/***** not big enough?


Those who ARE trading billions need not respond, and can simple wire me a few mill.

How big can you make 1R?

We is DAY TRADERS

1R would max out well below 100K a year for my style of day trading.

So 50R a year = 5 million is the most i could ever make.
100R = 10million.

Im never going to be a billionaire.

A long term trend follower with 1R= 10million, can make 500 million if they manage to net 50R.

The longer your time frame, the wider your stops and you also have more time to build up a position. A long term trend follower can spend hours building up a 10,000 lot position in some of the less liquid markets.

 

[Hotch]

So you're saying liquidity dd?

 

[Doomberg]

The ones that earn mega bucks will only speak in % talk

Its not good to say on an open forum "yeah i made 700k this year"

Also remember most full time traders withdraw a wage which slows compounding

 

[donaldduke]

So you're saying liquidity dd?

Yeah liquidity. Or scalability might be a better term.

And to your point regarding metrics. In general shorter term systems actually have better metrics than longer term ones. That is why i day trade.

But longer term systems are more scalable and have lower transaction costs.

Ofcourse this lack or liquidity/scalability with day trading only becomes a problem when you have millions in your trading account. So it is a nice problem to have

 

[Doomberg]

Yeah liquidity. Or scalability might be a better term.

And to your point regarding metrics. In general shorter term systems actually have better metrics than longer term ones. That is why i day trade.

But longer term systems are more scalable and have lower transaction costs.

Ofcourse this lack or liquidity/scalability with day trading only becomes a problem when you have millions in your trading account. So it is a nice problem to have

As a day trader what would you think the maximum amount would be before you are getting slowed down to the extent that its damaging your trading? For example if you were risking 3% per trade

 

[donaldduke]

As a day trader what would you think the maximum amount would be before you are getting slowed down to the extent that its damaging your trading? For example if you were risking 3% per trade

Depends on the markets you are trading and also your system.

If you are day trading only the FTSE or the YM.. your limit is going to 10 or 20 times less than if you are trading the FESX or ES.

If you are trading with a 5 tick stop loss your risk limit is going to max out at 10 times less than if you trade with a 50 tick stop loss.

I reckon the maximum possible retail day trading profits will be somewhere in the 100K to 10million a year range.

Of course you can keep on trying to push it further and further by finding more and more markets to trade and more and more intra day systems. But it will get harder and harder to manage for just one person.

 

[Doomberg]

Yeah my main one is Dax, but also Dow, FTSE and sometimes EUR/USD

I don't have a massive amount in my account so not had any probs, but just thinking forward

Do the above have good liquidity? Usually a 40 point stop loss, i close before this but its just incase

 

[Pazienza]

Yeah my main one is Dax, but also Dow, FTSE and sometimes EUR/USD

I don't have a massive amount in my account so not had any probs, but just thinking forward

Do the above have good liquidity? Usually a 40 point stop loss, i close before this but its just incase

EURUSD as much as you want, basically.

Dax and FTSE I'm not sure, I like to sleep in a bit, so US markets only for me.

Dow, not bad, you'd need to be doing pretty good size before you had much of a problem.

ES you should try if you like the Dow, basically you can put (in realistic, retail terms) any amount through with little trouble. Hundreds of contracts.

 

[safvan]

The ones that earn mega bucks will only speak in % talk

Its not good to say on an open forum "yeah i made 700k this year"

Also remember most full time traders withdraw a wage which slows compounding

Withdrawing money to make a living is a huge factor also in a traders life especially the ones that do it full time as a bread earner.

Frankly if we just follow buffet philosophy and try to cap our urges and maintain a decent life style for around 100k a year and do not over stretch, it can really help a lot in the long run.

Granted you would not be able to enjoy the freedom that wealth brings instantly but then everything has a price and patience and modesty is the price one has to pay for long term wealth accumulation.

 

[Hotch]

So, 1% risk (not that that really means anything)

Since nov06:

213% return (round down),
maximum 16% drawdown (round up),
211 trades
R:R is 7:1,
win 19.9%

I presume I should be looking at other aspects, but what?

 

[Shanghai]

So I was leafing through way of the turtle the other day, it's mentioned that they used 2% risk, and it seems to suggest 80-100% returns they got were brilliant.

So let's say that's 50R over a year right?

This seems a lot less impressive then what traders on here are doing.

How do you know what traders on here are actually making? It is an internet forum after all. Isn't it similar to the sex formula, ie aren't you meant to divide a males figure of the number of women he says he has slept with by 3 to get the true answer or something like that?

 

[Hotch]

Well knowing some personally, live calls, etc

 

[Joey25]

So, 1% risk (not that that really means anything)

Since mid September:

213% return (round down),
maximum 16% drawdown (round up),
211 trades
R:R is 7:1,
win 19.9%

I presume I should be looking at other aspects, but what?

Forget the size of your stops, targets etc. and follow these steps:

1) List your daily net total profits in an Excel spreadsheet
2) Calculate @mean(.)*250 and @stdev(.)*sqrt(250)
3) The first divided by the second is your annualised Sharpe ratio. If you score more than 0.5 then you're doing well.

 

[Hotch]

Yeah, like I'm not taking 2 weeks off!