Betfair trading, novice

28.8

Newbie
5 0
Good morning, I want to learn how to trade/lay on Betfair.

My edge is a 28 year research into horse fitness in a percentage before a race.

Will pop in and get some advice.

Thanks

Jim Conway
 

Trader333

Moderator
8,655 981
Sounds interesting and in what way would you wish to use Betfair to trade this as there are several options ?
 

28.8

Newbie
5 0
Hi, thanks that is the problem, if it is fit I want to back it nad more than likely it will move late in the markets because of stable confidence.

If it is unfit, i want to lay it as likely to blow out, but not sure how to especially put up my own prices.

Thanks

Back in 8 hours.
 

Trader333

Moderator
8,655 981
Hmm, well stable confidence has little impact on price in my view as they are unable to factor in the same for all other horses in a race. It also implies that a large amount of money would suddenly be placed on it (if fit) or against it (if unfit) and you would be able to see this in the price charts. There may be a way to profit from it by using the "In Running" trade option because it will be at that level where this edge should come into its own. I am happy to talk more about how this can be done if you wish and the type of strategies that will work if this edge is workable.
 

Msalway2015

Newbie
5 1
Betfair is the best option for what you want to do. You can back at large odds and then trade-out. As long as you have some info and you are "in the know". I would even advise starting up a tipping service, because the more you tip something the more the horse will be backed and the more the odds will fall. Good luck! ;)
 

28.8

Newbie
5 0
Backing fitter horses, Mmmm 96% strike rate laying fav.

Betfair is the best option for what you want to do. You can back at large odds and then trade-out. As long as you have some info and you are "in the know". I would even advise starting up a tipping service, because the more you tip something the more the horse will be backed and the more the odds will fall. Good luck! ;)

Good evening punters, just a short news as bit late now and bet time very soon.

Another winning day for members on what was pretty tough going with rain nearly all day, coats on horses, mobile black out and darkening skies which really makes it difficult to rate the horses.

A bit sugared off with clerk of courses also with a 9 event program them being really slack in not evening worrying about getting the runners in the yard in any sort of time before the races.

The (4) in the last and winner Lord Durante came into the yard and straight onto the track, with about 1 minute before start time, $9.00 and I would of rated top line, I was not happy.


The day was filled with drama as winners clearly on top and won, or top group of 2 running in first 4, or 2-6-5 on top 97% finishing 1-2-3 and trifecta a great $100
and the Pick 4 cost $18 to get back $1,000

This result 6-2-5; race 6, some members got my MMS Spread Sheets, some did not, I had communications problems for about 30 minutes and though tried to send 10 times nothing happened. This is all out of my hands.

Thankfully all came good by the next race.

We had a 98% on top on its own; walk in, Green Card ($3.70) in the 1st and very nice horse also, so watch out for in the spring.

We had another 98%, that very hard horse to catch, Lord of The Sky ($2.40), whom once he missed the kick out wide, that was that.
He has a heart as big as a half a pea!

We had 2 races with the fav. on 96% surrounded x others and once again they did not win.

You had little chance of collecting on Word Of Mouth ($3.10) on 96% and early fav. Shakespearian Lass ($3.80) and late fav. Charivari ($5.60)
winning; all lost.

Our world top laying strike rates of 96% with 117 called and 112 unfit favourites losing is truly amazing.

Plunges went down because they did not have a clear fitness nor fit enough to justify the huge amount of money, punters lost millions.

Jalan Jalan (Caulfield R1) - $9 ➞ $5
Carashan Girl (Caulfield R2) - $15 ➞ $7.50
Heavy (Caulfield R3) - $7 ➞ $3.80
Mick's Hustler (Caulfield R4) - $12 ➞ $4.60
Herstory (Caulfield R5) - $10 ➞ $4.80
Chiavari (Caulfield R7) - $9 ➞ $5.50


We are easily winning 9/10 meetings.

Spread sheets up later on a hard day at the office but a winning day.

Jim
 

28.8

Newbie
5 0
Our world top laying strike rates of 96% with 117 called and 112 unfit favourites losing is truly amazing!

That 96% strike rate is when I pre race fitness% spread sheets from the mounting yard, the favourite on only 96% - 95% (ordinary fitness levels) and mixed in with others on same fitness eg: may be 6-7-8 horses all on those fitness and only 5 have won out of 117 races, amazing results and they are the fav. from $1.70 - $3.80, average may be $2.80.

Huge results, I just have to learn to back em.
 
 
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