Bearish Bunds?

[Martinghoul]

Yo,

We have a wall of supply coming, on the one hand, from everyone and their mother...

On the other hand, we have hardly seen the bottom of this downturn, in my view, so too early to happily reallocate into equities. Deflation is a distinct possibility in the Eurozone, esp given the relative rigidity of their exchange rate.

I find myself confused... Anyone care to express a view? Pls discuss...

 

[jagat]

why not to be bearish on german bund

German bund is having decent resistance at 126. but then there is no reason to be bearish on bund. since ecb is reacting slowly in rate cuts. current projections about rate cuts which may bring rates to 1% may not allow bund to have free fall. and then German DAX has also fallen below 4000 which may become a good reason to be bullish on German fixed income.2008 was nightmare for USA, 2009 can be a tough year for europe. but yes as a trader i would like to short bund future at the time of supply news for intra day trading!!!!!!

 

[DaxDestroyer]

Yo,

We have a wall of supply coming, on the one hand, from everyone and their mother...

On the other hand, we have hardly seen the bottom of this downturn, in my view, so too early to happily reallocate into equities. Deflation is a distinct possibility in the Eurozone, esp given the relative rigidity of their exchange rate.

I find myself confused... Anyone care to express a view? Pls discuss...

Don't you think, everybody is bearish? June trades 130 pips below :innocent:

What about a good run up to new highs? 127,20 50 ? That would be "only" a 126 for June

 

[arabianights]

Sit on hands until govvies bubble bursts (I think it's going to be a reasonably obvious trigger, e.g. a rating downgrade, auction failure, curious remark), then go all in. This is harder for someone trading HF sizes of course...

Apart from that on a day to day basis I have no view about where it's going today, I would guess range bound.

 

[Martinghoul]

Thx, gents... Everything still clear as mud , but I appreciate the views. As far as I am concerned, I would be bullish here for a while yet. With the news yesterday that the ECB will be joining the QE party, who knows, maybe they're gonna be buying guvvies, which might drag the bund up further.

 

[gooseman]

persoanlly a bull here.

 

[DaxDestroyer]

Thx, gents... Everything still clear as mud , but I appreciate the views. As far as I am concerned, I would be bullish here for a while yet. With the news yesterday that the ECB will be joining the QE party, who knows, maybe they're gonna be buying guvvies, which might drag the bund up further.

Don't underestimate the ROLL this week

 

[Martinghoul]

Not much action in the Eurex rolls, to be honest... All seems rather ho-hum to me.

 

[DaxDestroyer]

Not much action in the Eurex rolls, to be honest... All seems rather ho-hum to me.

hmmm March expired at the high

 

[jagat]

below 3% yield looks more reasonable after ecb press conference. first time trichet was not shy in making dovish comments.

 

[Martinghoul]

hmmm March expired at the high

Yep, guess I'm the famous idiot now... The bobls were super exciting this time around, with Eurex getting shut down not once, but twice. Bananas!

 

[DaxDestroyer]

Yep, guess I'm the famous idiot now... The bobls were super exciting this time around, with Eurex getting shut down not once, but twice. Bananas!

No, you are NOT!

Idiots don't have OWN ideas and opinions
Stick to your beliefs. Nothing else!