AXN Alexon

I've recently noticed Alexon PLC (Dolcis brand) has made a breakout from a long term low on the back of good results and the strength of the retail sector (eg. DEB).

Another good performance today - up 7.3 percent continuing the breakout and going through resistance at 92p.

Directors seem to have been buying and there are recent announcements re: Institutional Holdings (I haven't checked if they are buy's or sells - DYOR).

Any views on the technical position?
 

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Probably too late to get in for serious money:(
Stochastics well oversold, so a pullback/profit taking soon.Wait for a pullback if you want to get in.
 
Martin, thanks for your comments, it's very quiet out there at the moment

According to my measurements AXN is at the target set by measuring the height of the ascending triangle. If only I had noticed this 10 days ago!

I will be watching it closely for the pullback in case there are signs that it will go further. It's not unusual for mometum indicators to stay overbought when a new trend gets put in place so there is some hope.

I have better expectations for RDW though - my measurements suggest a target of 270p if we get the breakout...
 

Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
Spot on, Darth...only a little late maybe..I was eyeing them and looking for a spike last month when the price was around 74...lost interest simply because I stopped trading for a few weeks....

My interest was becuase they were listed as one of the most undervalued stocks in "Sunday Investor" quoting AXN on top in the fund managers screen for the cheapest stocks in the market...

Full year results summary:

Turnover £340m
Operating profits £13.6m
EPS 13.4p
PE ratio 5

Market value was about £45m then as far as I remember...

Now directors started buying...

Alexon Group PLC ("the company")

Alexon Group PLC was informed on 6 April 2001 that R Piggott, a director,
bought 9,299 ordinary 10p shares in the company at 69.6p on 3 April 2001 and a further 18,059 shares at 76.7p on 6 April 2001.

I think it's got more to score...but as Chartman said might retrace before the next bounce up...been up nearly +50% since April 3rd...

Still worth to watch I'd say

Riz
 

RogerM

Established member
752 6
AXN is in one of my favourite patterns - a saucer bottom. In the short term this is overbought, but still has plenty to go IMHO. The breakout was at 75 so in an ideal world this will now drift down to find support at the breakout which by then may be at the same level as the new uptrend.

Debenhams operates on a p/e of 14, Arcadia 12, Mothercare 12.4, French Connection 10, Harvey Nichs 8.6 - and Alexon 4.
 

Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
This game is all about timing the trade...it stopped retracing at 115 and started bouncing up right from there... now at 137.5...nearly 10% in 5 days one of which flat...trend seems to be up with regard to MAs, RSI ticking up after forming double bottom at 60 now just over 65, stochastics still ticking up...only we haven't got big volume to push it much further in all time high territory...that seems to be the only concern now

Attaching a chart for this one to view the progress...

Riz
 

Attachments

Hi Riz.

You are absolutely right. I've been updating some of my old threads to try and see how they have performed. With a few exceptions (that could have been managed with stop losses) I found the results somewhat better than expected.

I'm currently trading for real and trying to get a view about trading vs longer term holds.

IMO. Long term holds seem worth while.
What's your opinion?
 

Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
Hi Darth,

One of the hardest questions about share trading/investing I must say :)

It all depends on the individual, their skills, circumstances, tools and size of capital (the time scale one may need it back) really...on the other hand the type of shares one concentrates on and the sectors in combination with general/sectoral trend are all factors one has to consider when deciding on trading vs investing...that also raises another question as to short, medium or long term...

I prefer trading rather than investing for the simple reason to start with I don't have a capital that I can invest and forget about it for a long time, all I have is a limited capital which has to provide quick returns and be available the moment I need it, since I don't have any other source of income, this is why I mainly swing trade and sometimes trade intraday and trade cfds so I can make use of margin trading...if one has that sort of capital it's certainly worth while as you said...about nine companies that I thought were worth to invest in about 1.5 years ago have now gone up over 100%, with proper stop loss even if you get 3 out of 10 right you win a lot...with your skills and performance I don't think you'll ever stop building up your capital by investing long term...

I am sure you're already more than aware of all this, so I'd better limit myself to trading which seems to be the sort that you want to get opinions about...intraday, swing and positions trading are the most common types to consider...

For all especially intraday and swing trading you need to be able to spare time during the day to follow the stocks you trade intraday (that is a necessity without this it's best to forget about it)...TA skills undoubtedly needed together with L2 and real time price facilities which can be arranged anytime so long as one is prepared to pay for them...

Once you get all these and you start short term trading whatever the type is you soon find out that your main problem is your psychology...some traders tend to ignore or underestimate this but my observation is that behind most trading disasters you can find the failure in psychology, trading is one of those most emotional things and your psychology is bound to have an effect on it (either positive or negative, mostly I find out it's negative)...

Most traders know the rules, but not all apply them properly: we know about the money management, stop loss, cut loss run profit, but the question is how many of us apply them without exception...how many times do we witness greed, fear, dithering, pride, inability to accept and stomach one's mistakes taking over decision making and causing big losses...we've covered stop loss or cut losses here so many times, but we still see cases of serious losses just because we don't apply stop loss or cut losses and run losses instead of profits...

So why is this? We know it, but we still do it burning our fingers...the answer I think is psychology...maybe this is why we have a market some will apply some will not so we can have winners and losers...unfortunately big losers being the public and big winners the big guys...

You may by now be saying stop beating about the bush and come back to the question :)

So I'd better come back to your considering to trade short term, in your case I think the question will be whether you can spare time intraday, if you can do it, I think it's worth a try, maybe initially small trades to be on the safe side, as to me you seem to have all the required skills and experience even more than many traders I have observed...there is a lot of volatility over there and if one has the skills and experience to make use of it, why not?

By the way, do you use L2?

Hoping you might find a couple of useful points in all this, and will be glad to make further comments if needed...also other members contribution to this could help it turn into a more interesting and useful discussion...

good luck

Riz
 
Thanks for the reply Riz.

I guess I'm thinking long term relative to your timescales!

The best advice I can find in a book comes from William O'Neal. He suggests taking profits when you make 20% unless the stock performs so strongly that you get there in less than 8 weeks.

In that case - his advice is to wait 'til 8 weeks is up then review the stock to see if it's a long term hold.

Sounds good advice in theory. I'll give it a go and report back.
 
Riz, re: L2

Riz,

I don't have level 2 but maybe I'll add it to my list of tools oneday (along with REFS).

I'd be interested to hear what software you use for day trading. Is ADVFN and Level 2 enough or do you have a more sophisticated trading station?

I have used the real-time charts provided by IG Index for trading indices but feel there is a lack of "power" tools for finding the opportunities or do you just work on the old favorites?
 

Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
HI Darth,

Does O'Neal take the general/sectoral trend into consideration? And also does he advise this for spesific shares or is it just in general?

I started with advfn L2 and prices, only it's refreshing and not as useful as streaming ones, I know use Proquote as well which is all streaming and the best of kind I think...Stocktrade also provides streaming prices for up to about 15 shares you can include in your watch list....I also use IG but not happy with their software, still overall all these provide me enough L2, prices, chart and news...when trading intraday news flow is also important, I use hemscott, digitallook, etc for intraday news flow by e-mail, and proquote and IG for streaming news...

When trading US indices (futures) I use quote.com, it's very useful providing streaming prices, charts and other useful information about the market...if you haven't tried this yet, give it a go, you'll like it...

Riz
 
Thanks for the trading software info. It's very useful.

O'Neil's metholodolgy is the CANSLIM that I have mentioned before.

The M stands for "Market Direction".

The N stands for New eg. New Product, Management and/or industry. He also says that 67% of price movements are group related.

There is a lot of truth in the CANSLIM technique but my current feeling is that it the cahrting and trading aspects are the key.
 
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