AUDUSD Rebound?

Rambo35

Active member
Apr 22, 2013
227
6
#1
I have talked about this currency pair since it hit the 0.9200 mark and I added to my long positions at 0.9050. I think we will see a move higher and a breakout from its current chart pattern. We may saw a capitulation sell-off on Friday ahead of Chinese GDP data as trader’s were preparing for the worst.

Chinese GDP came in at 7.5% and market the second consecutive quarterly slowdown. The Australian Dollar rallied on the news and I think we may see a push higher past the 0.9500 level. That’s just my take on it.
 

wackypete2

Legendary member
Sep 24, 2008
10,140
2,015
#2
Daily Chart with 200 day moving average. Notice the "up" day candle bodies are generally smaller range than the "down" days. Traders have been betting long for the past 1500 pip drop. The selling pressure is still on in this pair. IMHO, if you are taking a longer term view, down is still the way to go. Why try to call a bottom in front of that falling boulder ? I wouldn't consider becoming a longer term bull until .9330 (yellow line on chart) is clearly broken to the upside. If Friday's low is broken, lookout below.

Peter
 

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Jason Rogers

Senior member
Jun 17, 2009
2,768
92
#3
I have talked about this currency pair since it hit the 0.9200 mark and I added to my long positions at 0.9050. I think we will see a move higher and a breakout from its current chart pattern. We may saw a capitulation sell-off on Friday ahead of Chinese GDP data as trader’s were preparing for the worst.

Chinese GDP came in at 7.5% and market the second consecutive quarterly slowdown. The Australian Dollar rallied on the news and I think we may see a push higher past the 0.9500 level. That’s just my take on it.
Hi Rambo,

Like Pete, I'm reluctant to fight the longterm downtrend, but you might be onto something. While retail positioning is still heavily long AUD/USD, crowds are not as long the pair as they were last Friday. Retail positioning can be a contrarian indicator, so the fact that crowds have reduced their long positions and increased their short positions could be signs of a possible rebound. Much will depend on the RBA minutes coming out in a couple of hours.

Good luck and good trading!

Jason
 

Rambo35

Active member
Apr 22, 2013
227
6
#4
It worked our great for me, moved my stop loss so I am making at least 125 pips so I am not complaining here. Different traders have different views which is how markets are created. Thanks for your comments guys :)