Let's make that issue simple..trend following system with a wide stop loss. I take the point about base value and commodities,but you could almost make the same statement about stocks and their fixed asset values couldn't you.
I seem to recall that some of the "Original Turtles" were kicked out for failing to stick rigidly to the "system".
I think there's a web site somewhere on google.
From what they say, it works.
So there's probably a lot to be said for rigid self discipline.
Of course, the Liquorice Allsort model has its attractions.
I find that most of my trades are like the black/brown/white ones: numerous but not very satisfying.
But every so often, I get one of the yellow coconut fondant wrapped ones which is a pleasant surprise.
I did once try, in the cinema, to decide by feel which if the square sandwich ones I was selecting black/white or black/brown but got heartily sick of the experiment before reaching a decent statistical sample. :cheesy:
Same with trading really, you can get geartily sick of making small margins and big mistakes.
I think the best thing is to read and listen to other opinions and use them as a guide to deciding and improving whatever works for us individually............personally i don't think there is a 'one size fits all' solution to trading.
the absolute tops maybe, but the way i see it when prices spike up (greed/fear/panic) and when they spike down greed/fear/panic) these are high emotional buying and selling, psychology of humans, thinking, F me get in and f ing hell get out, which ties in with the saying " if you can keep calm whilst all around are going ape etc" you have the opportunity to obtain good value in top or bottom zones. its not 100% therein lies the risk. But i'd rather go shop for sale goods any day of the week,rather than pay full retail.
I feel comfortable selling into steep rallies and buying into sharp declines , i just see it for what it is panic and people wanting to dispose of goods at sale price because of fear. when people fear it clouds judgement, we become irrational with thought gripped by fear which leaves people frozen mentally, they sit there watching head in hands become agitated internalising ohh F*** i knew i should of closed out.... then the glimmer of hope shines upon them in the form of price retracement which then makes them say phewwwww, did right to hold i'll get out even etc... often it never makes even though people wait and rely on hope only for prices to get hammered again, the agitation starts over as prices fall away even quicker, why didn't i get out at nearly even though i had the chance?? etc.... further declines can make people very angry,sick, physical manifestations with a non physical cause, ie you, your mind. now i feel that humans are more than their mind but the biggest aspect of a human is their non physical aspect. not the outer physical skin, but most people at this stage in our development still focus on external material throughout their whole life from people to possessions, this along with the "monkey see monkey do" upbringing continues to support and nurture tomorrows apes.
However apeman whether through luck or high emotional exposure might be lucky enough to experience "Individuation" .
the point generally late 20's where a person questions his lot in life etc and so embarks on his journey, destination- Enlightenment.
the false neon ad lights, plastic surgery so we can be the external physical object of other peoples desires in order to fulfill the need that we want to be wanted and loved and people selling you lifestyles and catchy tunes like "I'm just a material girl living in a material world"
(Thankyou Madona) become all the more humourous but sad. But that nicely sums up mans existence circa 2000 in history.
As for the next millenia the sillicone implants will slowly be removed ape man i'm sure will evolve into a more grounded sentient being, providing of course we dont pursue the genitically generated breeding route of creating ohh so perfect humans of physical form.
"The new dawn will come when you can look into your brothers eyes and see into his soul"
errrrrrr, hmmm so thats why its good going for top and bottom zones......
If I see a market explode in one direction or another I wait for the pullback, or the volatility to die down, and then jump on the bandwaggon rather than stand infront of the train. I find that quite often the immediate move may be overdone but despite the occassional spoof, there is usually good reason for the move.
I suppose it depends on your timeframe.