Anyone for COCO ?

[DionysusToast]

Education stocks have been getting hammered of late.

To add insult to injury - one of the largest - APOL is being sued left right & centre.

With all the woe, it seems there might be a few bargains around.

Corinthian Colleges results came in under expectations today - they missed by 1 cent/share. The stock took quite a dive and has put in a low of 4.42, way off this years high of 19.31.

Corinthian don't seem to be doing that badly. Revenue grew 38% from last year. Earnings are up 18.5% from last year. P/E is less than 3. They are not swimming in debt and they have a healthy cash flow. Of course Obamanomics could impact their revenue.

So is it worth buying and holding this for a while ? I think so. I am in now at 4.59 for 2000 shares, looking at holding for 6-9 months but will exit if there is a 'windfall' profit.

I am also long APOL, but only 400 shares hoping for a short term bounce.

 

[cr6196]

i believe the reason they are getting hammered is the govt is investigating the group (i'm not sure if the suing you mention is the same thing) for inflating revenues by signing up students that aren't there or something. the relevance being they get most of their money from the government. I also heard a few months ago about the way they were signing on student (crackheads and homeless people mainly) and some rumours about they way they were financing the students etc. it didn't really seem like a good way to do business (for profit colleges by itself doesn't seem to smart). I don't think the degrees are worth anything either. for me it seemed like a complete hassle, there is better stuff out there but on the other hand, this stuff is probablly all priced in. pretty interesting though...US seems slightly more likely to hold onto this kind of spending but if there is any fact in the claims against these colleges than I can see it becoming a target.

 

[DionysusToast]

Indeed - apparently the recruiters are ex-mortgage salesmen.

 

[DionysusToast]

OK - got the short term bounce on APOL - out half of the position around 60c & then out of the remainder when it came off yesterdays high of 40.79.

Obviously - I am not a big swinging dick....

And a chart for those that like pretty candles etc.

Measly profit of $308 on the trade.

 

[DionysusToast]

Well - no windfall from COCO yet but she has committed a couple of cardinal sins in my opinion. This biggest cardinal sin being the fact she's been going down when both the market and her peers are going up. Not holding onto $5.00 after staying above it for a few days was quite naughty too.

So - out go the shares for poor behaviour. Stop was at 4.60 - which is about my average price but at 4.90 I had seen enough to be comfortable with exiting. Comfortable means I'll have no regrets if she rockets up from here.

So - out with a $605 gain and $32 commissions leaving a new handbag for the wife or $573. Not really worth the effort.

COCO is still oversold in my opinion. 25% of the shares are short, so a decent pop could turn into a snowball. There is a risk that their source of revenue will be cut but this requires the government to achieve something and for the lobbyists to achieve nothing. COCO insiders have been buying but in my opinion - this means bugger all. Nothing will happen on funding until the mid term elections (2nd Nov) and if the Dems lose serious ground, the plans to restrict funding will disappear and we'll be off to the races.

So I remain committed until mid November- with these 20 contracts. Max loss on the position is now $800 or $227 if you consider the small gain on the shares. In theory - upside is perhaps $4k if it pops.

COCO options are at the bottom. Not sure how to find the trade in TWS - just the position.

 

[DionysusToast]

BTW - should have stuck with APOL - it's at $45.72 right now.... ho hum...

 

[D70]

Is this a trading thread Dionysus?

You should continue. I think people could learn a lot.

 

[DionysusToast]

It's just a follow up on this trade to be honest - if I put an entry on a post, I should follow it up with an exit.

I'll follow up again when I exit the options trade.

 

[DionysusToast]

LOL @ my timing - a few hours after selling, rumours came out that someone is amassing shares to take them private at $8.

Shares now at $5.60 and rising. Still - best decision at the time IMO to get out when it looked weak.

b@stards...

 

[D70]

Keep the thread going!
What's the next trade.... !?
Come on DT, become a trade2win celebrity!

 

[DionysusToast]

D70 - It's not exactly a frothy market for investing in stocks right now in my opinion. I don't get on well with longer term shorts and there's a lot of negativity about right now, so I'm mostly parking money in a few ETFs I think will be OK if the dollar goes down the pan.

On the other hand, if my mate who's an analyst for a hedge fund drops me any more crumbs, I'll put the trades up here.

COCO options trade is up about $500 right now - the ambulance chasers seem to be gathering around her (i.e. dinky law firms trying to gather pissed off shareholders for a class-action suite) and the media is still on the story - although some more balanced articles are coming out.

Buyout ? DOE softening their stance ? Something out at the conference call later today ?

Anything significant and there's going to be a lot of shorts squeezed. We have 2 months.

Tick tock.

 

[DionysusToast]

Quick update. DOE will announce the timeline for their Education funding regulations tomorrow.

Shares are up to $7 today, I presume in anticipation of this and in light of the DOA backing off a little.

Nov $6 calls now at $1.55 up from 40c entry price.

Obviously, the best news would be new regulations off the shelf entirely but it seems we are a way off that yet....