anyone confident enough to post live 10 winning trades in a row?

the hare said:
Martingale isnt going to improve the win rate, or the number of consecutive wins or losses. It just ensures that the eventual winner offsets the earlier losses, and in its simplest form with fixed R:R puts you ahead by the size of the original bet.

The primary factor which influences the probability of a streak of a given length occurring is win rate. If you have a high win rate, then you'll get longer streaks, if you have a low win rate you'll get shorter streaks of winnners. Thats the situation if the win rate is due to a genuine edge, or artificially achieved by altering R:R to engineer a higher win rate.

As you point out, there's no real correlation between streak length and expectancy.
Click to expand...

Indeed, I expressed it wrong, meant averaging down combined with increased size of every entry, rather than martingale in a classic gambling sense of the term.
 
cornixforex said:
I have much more interesting and productive things to do in life than trying to prove something I see no value in anyway. :)
Click to expand...

The value is to prove what you claim. Without proof, your claim is invalid. Why not spend 1 hour and see if you can come up with 10 winners ? It can't be that hard as I do it a lot of the time.
 
BeginnerJoe said:
The value is to prove what you claim. Without proof, your claim is invalid. Why not spend 1 hour and see if you can come up with 10 winners ? It can't be that hard as I do it a lot of the time.
Click to expand...

I did not claim it's easy to do in 1 hour and spending more time on that is not worth it. :)

Try far OTM (say 20% below the market with monthly cycle) bull put spreads on SPY. I am pretty sure you will see very often streaks of 10+ in a row, but still better keep Victor Niederhoffer in mind (though he acted much more recklessly by selling them naked as opposed to spreads I offer). :cheesy:
 
BeginnerJoe said:
No need to risk your money. Demonstrate using the forum contest.
Click to expand...

It's kind of a pointless thing to do if you achieve it by using an asymetric R:R profile. The sample size is insufficient to prove anything conclusive. I suppose you might win a kindle and generate some lulz.

I do know scalpers who use very tight stops, and 1:1 - 1:2 targets who can pull off that kind of performance over maybe a month, and do it consistently. The problem is, even the very few who can achieve this can rarely capitalise on that ability. There are two problems, the high strike rate should allow them to trade at a much larger position size than someone like me (they get far less consecutive losers) but the psychology of handling the infrequent losers, when trading large position size is something that is not easily achieved, and in practice, the ones of my aquaintance anyway use conservative position sizing for exactly that reason. Raher bizarrly, and from personal experience I'd say that its posible to get to the point where you can handle long losing streaks, and multi week drawdowns far easier than handling a losing trading session with a higher strike rate system. It just gets easier to handle losses when they occur very frequently. There's also something a bit unsatisfying about having a great method, and not fully exploiting it. Its the equivelent of owning a decent car and never driving above 20 MPH becaues you are frightened of crashing it.

The second reason that they cant optimise the strategy is that they inevitably run into liquidity issues if they try to compound.

Thats not to say it isnt a sensible way of going about things, there are a oad of obious disadvantages but if it feels like he right thing to be doing, then you should do it.
 
the hare said:
It's kind of a pointless thing to do if you achieve it by using an asymetric R:R profile. The sample size is insufficient to prove anything conclusive. I suppose you might win a kindle and generate some lulz.
Click to expand...

It isn't pointless. The point is to prove what you claim. It adds weight to your claim. A good trader should be able to control the number of wins according to his objective. The objective for this thread is to come up with consecutive win irrespective of the size of the win. How many here has the control to come up with the goods ? I dare say not many.
 
BeginnerJoe said:
It isn't pointless. The point is prove what you claim. It adds weight to your claim. A good trader should be able to control the number of wins according to his objective. The objective for this thread is to come up with consecutive win irrespective of the size of the win. How many here has the control to come up with the goods ? I dare say not many.
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What is the goal of achieving a certain number of wins as opposed to the goal of extracting maximal profit from the market with minimal drawdown?

I am not negative, just trying to understand the logic behind it really.
 
the hare said:
I do know scalpers who use very tight stops, and 1:1 - 1:2 targets who can pull off that kind of performance over maybe a month, and do it consistently.
Click to expand...

LOL, that's written like about me. :)

I scalp the Euro with tight stops and hit rate is relatively high (over 50%). But 10+ winning streaks do not happen often, much more common situation is a mix of small winners, small losses, scratches and bigger winners.
 
cornixforex said:
What is the goal of achieving a certain number of wins as opposed to the goal of extracting maximal profit from the market with minimal drawdown?

I am not negative, just trying to understand the logic behind it really.
Click to expand...

The logic is to come up with 10 winners in a row to illustrate you have the control necessary to be a good trader.
 
BeginnerJoe said:
The logic is to come up with 10 winners in a row to illustrate you have the control necessary to be a good trader.
Click to expand...

How can you control the exact outcome of certain sequence of your trades? :-0

Trading is the game of big numbers. Outcome of single trade is close to random, only large enough sample is indicative of trader's true performance.
 
BeginnerJoe said:
Why not spend 1 hour and see if you can come up with 10 winners ? It can't be that hard as I do it a lot of the time.
Click to expand...

The issue is what happens on the occassions that you cant do it.

I trade a system thats based on completely random entries, there is no skill whatsoever involved in my entries. The system I trade automatically records the max favourable excursion of each trade, and surprisingly, most of them (probably 80% of them) show a few pips profit at some point.

If I modified the system to grab small profits as they occurred I'd vastly improve my win rate, and consequentially, I'd experience long streaks of consecutive wins. I'd also lose money, which is why I wont be doing that any time soon !

This game is about making money, and win rate isnt really that important.
 
The game in this thread is actually to have large number of consecutive wins. So many claim they can play this game, yet they refuse to demonstrate.
 
BeginnerJoe said:
Because having large number of consecutive wins cannot be random.
Click to expand...

Yes it can !

I would suggest you do 2 things. a) find yourself a probability calculator that allows you to compute the probability of a streak of a given length for a particular win rate. That will allow you to understand what parameters effect streak length.

Then find yourself a simulation tool that allows you to generate equity curves based on win rates etc.

Then spend a few years demoing random sytems. I guarentee if you do that riches beyond your wildest dreams will be yours for the taking
 
BeginnerJoe said:
Because having large number of consecutive wins cannot be random. What else can you attribute that to other than control ?
Click to expand...

Hmm... It depends. Because 10-20 is not "large" sample by any serious measures. Even random coin toss can happen to show that and more.

If sample is truly large (say hundreds of trades), it can be said about the average probability of having a winning trade, but even then, it's still the probability, not certainty. Nobody can control the markets in a way to be 100% sure about the outcome of the next 10 trades.

And of course, if, as The Hare pointed out, one has inverse R:R, the chance of showing 10+ winners in a row would be high, but that is just the characteristics of the trading method, rather than control and high professionalism, and very likely produces not higher profit than some other method, which may have lower win rate, but high R:R.

So I would prefer to measure how good a trader is by % gain made over certain time period (say a year) in relation to risk and maximal draw-down needed to achieve that gain.
 
BeginnerJoe said:
No I don't agree until you demonstrate.
Click to expand...

what, 10 winning trades?
how about 32 winning trades?
Doesn't mean anything, though. Im an aweful trader. Just 'trade' for the enjoyment, like people who bet on the horses for entertainment.
 

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