Analytics from FBS Holdings Inc.

[Dmitry Shagardin]

Royal Bank of Scotland: yen’s up on Goldman issue

Japanese currency was climbing against euro for the third consecutive day. The demand for yen grew as investors’ concerns about situation in Greece reinforced affected by investigation of Goldman Sachs Group’s fraud issue.

Strategists at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in Sydney believe that the news risk is rising as German and U.K. regulatory bodies stepped in applying to US Securities and Exchange Commission for details on its last week accusation of the bank.

According to the institution, Goldman Sachs at the beginning of 2007 sold debt obligation connected with subprime mortgages without announcing that hedge fund Paulson & Co. helped to choose what securities will form investment portfolio betting against the market. Goldman Sachs doesn’t admit any claims about its wrong actions.

Royal Bank of Scotland’s specialists favor cross-yen pairs.

Analysts at NTT SmartTrade Inc. in Tokyo say that yen’s advance, however, was limited as importers use the currency’s climbing to 3-week maximum to sell it. The last Tankan survey showed that Japan’s large manufacturers predict that the national currency will rise to 91 per dollar this fiscal year.

 

[Dmitry Shagardin]

Morgan Stanley: Aussi can decline to 84 cents by the quarter-end

It has become less likely that Australian dollar will rise to the parity with US dollar after it added 28% during the past year.

Such assumption was made because the country’s central bank may stop increasing interest-rates as quickly as it was doing. In addition, yuan’s revaluation turns out to be more possible. Specialists at Barclays Capital project that Australian currency will suffer the most from appreciation of Chinese currency.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley are very bearish on AUD/USD. They suppose that Aussie can lose 16% hitting the level of 84 cents by the end of this quarter and 78 cents in December as higher borrowing costs have negative impact on the economic growth.

BNP Paribas: pound will decline

Analysts at BNP Paribas SA predict that that British currency can fall more versus US dollar. This would happen as UK has to stimulate exports in order to compensate cuts in government and private spending.

The country will need to put public and private sector in order and decrease in currency may be the main instrument of support.

According to the specialists, investors are to keep being short on sterling. The target of decline is set at $1.48. The bank advised to stop trading if pound rises to $1.54.

 

[Dmitry Shagardin]

Rabobank: coalition government won’t solve British problems

British currency was declining as the positions of the parties have recently changed ahead of elections. It keeps decreasing since Thursday when the third by the number of the votes Liberal Democrats’ party won television debates.

As a result, it became more likely that after the elections coalition government will be formed that won’t be dominated by none of the parties.

In such case it’s not clear whether the country will be able to get its finance in order and maintain its AAA credit rating or not.

Analysts at Rabobank in London claim that coalition governments can succeed in Europe but are certainly not designed for Britain. That makes investors doubt and demand for cable is down.

 

[Dmitry Shagardin]

Fortis Bank Nederland NV: Britain's inflation rose above target level

Britain’s inflation rate in March extended higher that economists had expected. It was 3.4% higher than in this month the previous year and added 0.6% since February. The median forecast of 30 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was 3.1%.

Inflation exceeded government’s upper limit for the second time in 2010. The Bank of England has to maintain inflation at 2%.

Inflation rose as energy costs went up ahead of the election. Oil prices rose by 77% during the past years.

Economists at Fortis Bank Nederland NV in Amsterdam expect that the Bank of England will lift from 0.5% up rate in August. They think that in the next few months inflation would stay above its target level.

BNP Paribas: loonie will grow to 98 US cents

Canadian dollar started climbing from the 3-week minimum versus US dollar helped by the expectations that Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney will show that the central bank’s interest rates will be lifted in the near-term.

Strategists at BNP Paribas expect that loonie will grow to 98 US cents. They underline that the country’s economic data keeps being extremely positive supported by the improvement of its main export market in the US.

The specialists predict that the Bank of Canada will turn to more aggressive monetary policy according to the report coming on April 22.

Danske Bank A/S: yen will fall to 95 yen per dollar in a month

Japanese currency was down versus higher-yielding currencies including US dollar. It decreased against all of its 16 major counterparts.

It happened as the markets seem to be optimistic about global economic recovery. Yen reacted at the stocks’ advance as German investor confidence was better than forecast this month.

Analysts at Danske Bank A/S in Copenhagen expect that yen will survive a significant decline in the second quarter. They suppose that risk appetite will grow.

 

[Dmitry Shagardin]

Okasan Securities: keep selling euro

The advance of the single currency was spoilt by the speculation that Greece will need extra amount of financial help. Such assumptions reduced the demand for euro.

So, according to Bundesbank President Axel Weber, 30 billion euro from EU won’t be enough to save the indebted country.

Today Greek government sold 1.95 billion euro ($2.6 billion) of 13-week T-bills at a yield of 3.65%.

Tomorrow the EU, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank will start the process of fixing terms for the Greece’s bailout package.

Analysts at Okasan Securities Co. Ltd. in Tokyo expect that Greek crisis would have a long-term negative impact on the market. They recommend continuing selling euro. They believe that Greece would have to keep spending cuts and increasing taxes.

 

[Dmitry Shagardin]

Toronto-Dominion Bank: Bank of Canada starts hiking rates

Bank of Canada claimed today that it will start increasing interest rates as economic growth and inflation turned out to be higher than it was anticipated. As a result the necessity to hold rates at the record low level stimulating economy fades away.

As for the extent and timing of the operation, central bank’s governor Mark Carney noted that they would be determined in context of economic activity and inflation.

Canadian dollar went above the parity with US having the most gains since January.

Strategists at Toronto-Dominion Bank in Toronto think that it’s now almost certain that the rates will be lifted in June.

 

[Dmitry Shagardin]

Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd.: sterling will gain

British currency climbed versus dollar and euro after the data release showed that the number of jobless claims (Сlaimant Count Change) reduced in March by 32,900 that indicates gradual recovery of country’s economy. Median forecast of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg showed that the number of people receiving unemployment benefits in March should have dropped by 10,000 from February.

Analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. in London expect further rising of cable as there were already several times then macroeconomic data made positive impact on sterling’s rate.

Strategists at UBS AG in Stamford note that sterling would be popular among investors who are eager to take risks.

MF Global: euro will fall until Greek problems are solved

The single currency hit new 8-day minimum at 1.3390 failing to rise above 1.3450. The market still finds itself under pressure of Greek debt concerns.

Despite the fact that the European Union and the International monetary fund agreed to provide Greece with 45 billion euro in loans, the structure and conditions of bailout are not decided yet.

Currency strategists at RBC Capital Markets in London claim that today’s absence of news has negative impact on Greece. Strategists at MF Global in Chicago suppose that the downtrend for euro will maintain until debt issue isn’t solved.

Strategists at Credit Suisse Group see 3 main questions connected with Greece’s problems. They are interested whether Greece has made an actual request for aid, what is the exact role of the IMF and whether the commitment of EU governments is still uncertain.

 

[Dmitry Shagardin]

Barclays Capital: euro may fall to $1.30 in 3 months

The single currency rebounded versus US dollar after 4 days of going down. The market’s worrying that the financial aid will be provided to Greece later than it needs to pay its debts.

Economists at Barclays Capital warned that there are other European countries suffering from budget deficits. They underline the optimistic sentiment that Greece will meet its obligations on tax revenues. Never the less, the specialists expect euro to fall to $1.30 in 3 months.

Analysts at Mizuho Trust & Banking Co. in Tokyo also project that euro will fall. They claim that Greece crisis won’t be over in the near-term.

US oil stocks went up

US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that country’s crude oil stocks added 1.9 million barrels in the week before April 16, while the market was looking forward to only 0.1 million barrels gain. The previous week there was 2.2 million barrels decrease. As a result, American crude oil stocks were rising in 11 of the 12 past weeks.

 

[Dmitry Shagardin]

ING Investment Management: euro can fall to $1.23-$1.24

ING Investment Management sees the possibility of euro’s decreasing to $1.23-$1.24. The analysts think that this year US dollar can reach the maximal level versus euro since October 2008.

It can happen as US yields went up and became more attractive for investors concerned about Greece’s debt crisis. In April yields on 2-year Treasuries rose to year’s maximum on the positive economic data. Employment was improving at the fastest pace in 3 years and the International Monetary Fund raised this week its forecast for US economic growth.

The analysts also expect that dollar will rise to 99 yen by the end of 2010 as Japanese investors will invest in growing US economy.

Commerzbank AG: Greece applied to EU and IMF for financial help

Greece finally officially asked European Union and International Monetary Fund to activate the 45 billion euro bailout package.

The country suffers to the extreme rise of borrowing costs to the unsustainable levels destroying Greece’s attempts to constrain the budget shortfall. The risk premium reached 590 basis points yesterday. The national debt is equal to 300 billion euro.

There is the danger that the crisis will spread to another countries with high debt levels such as Spain and Portugal menacing the stability and even existence of the single currency.

Analysts at Commerzbank AG believe that the bailout plan for Greece will be successfully implemented. The specialists think that if the EU will act to slow, the loans will be provided by the IMF. As a result, Commerzbank expects short euro’s recovery versus US dollar.

 

[Dmitry Shagardin]

The elections to British Parliament scheduled on May 6 are approaching and the prospects of getting so-called hung parliament without any party’s majority seem to strengthen. There are 2 points of view on the possible outcome.

Kenneth Clarke, the Conservative Party’s Business Secretary and already experienced politician, sees the situation as very dangerous. He warned of pound’s volatility and immediate bond markets’ reaction that will come as soon as the government won’t be effective in cutting country’s deficit.
Kenneth Clarke vs. Goldman Sachs: how the elections will affect sterling?

There already were such cases in the past, for example, due to the hung Parliament formed in 1974 the country had to apply to the International Monetary Fund.

Goldman Sachs has an opposite view on the problem. It recommends its clients to buy pounds. The analysts base their conclusions on the strong growth prospects of UK economy in comparison with weak European ones. They underline that fears over a hung Parliament have already calmed down.

UBS economists believe that as all parties declare that they will be fighting with deficit and get it in order in than four years, there is no difference and the markets can relax.

However, the IMF revised its 2011 growth forecast for Britain from 2.7% down to 2.5%. In addition, credit ratings of the county could be cut if the deficit problem isn’t solved.

 

[Dmitry Shagardin]

BNP Paribas SA: pound can strengthen to $1.56

Sterling is growing due to the housing prices advance…

British currency was gaining against all 16 if its main competitors. It began rising versus US dollar for the first time in 3 days. Pound was supported by positive UK economic data.

According to Hometrack Ltd., UK house prices rose for a ninth month in a row adding 0.2% from March’s level.

The results of the poll published in today’s Sun newspaper showed that Conservative party is leading with 34% of votes. The Conservatives state that they will reduce the budget’s shortfall faster than the Labour party.

Analysts at BNP Paribas SA in London note that housing data will help sterling in the near term. According to them, the cable can strengthen to $1.56. The specialists think that the markets see the possibility of Conservative party’s success.

Deutsche Bank: dollar can climb to 100.00 yen in 3 months

Analysts at Deutsche Bank claim that dollar can climb to 100.00 zone in 3 months trading versus Japanese yen.

US currency went down from March maximum at 94.70 to its minimal level at 91.60 on April 19. Then the greenback rebounded and jumped above 94.00. In the shorter term the specialists forecast that USD/JPY will trade between 92.00 and 96.00.

In the second half of 2010 the uptrend for dollar will remain. In a year the greenback may reach 105.00.

Goldman Sachs: Greece should get aid at least by May 6

Greece has to repay 8.5 billion euro debts by May 19…

Yesterday in Washington Greece’s Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou claimed that the country was going to get financial aid rather soon and reassured investors that there was no risk of Greek debt restructuring.

Never the less the situation is still very tough. According to German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, the European Union hasn’t made yet the final decision to grant Greece bailout or not and neither did Germany.

Strategists at Morgan Stanley in New York think that the Greek crisis can have global consequences.

Greece needs to repay 8.5 billion euro ($11.3 billion) for bonds maturing on May 19. Economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. say it’s necessary that the aid is provided in advance by approximately May 6 for the country to stay payable.

 

[Dmitry Shagardin]

UBS AG: Germany hasn't agreed yet to bailout Greece

The single currency was close to hit its 3-month minimum trading versus US dollar. Euro was negatively influenced by the speculation that 45 billion euro rescue package won’t be enough to prevent spreading of the debt crisis.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel claimed that the country will start implementing its part of the loan granting only when Greece shows clear plan of deficit reduction. She said that the negotiations between the International Monetary Fund and Greek officials may continue until the beginning of May.

Strategists at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in Tokyo note that the markets are worrying that Germany can delay any increasing of bailout for Greece.

Analysts at UBS AG in Stamford expect German authorities to come up with a resolute decision to lend money to Greece or not.

Traders at the global payments firm Custom House claim that investors regard any short rebound of euro as the chance to sell the single currency. The slow development of the bailout plan may pull euro below $1.3200.

Commerzbank: euro will climb to 0.8732 pounds

The single currency yesterday tested again 2010 minimum at 0.8600 trading versus British pound. Commerzbank analysts expect the pair to jump to 0.8732 zone. In this area there is the 23.6% retracement of the decline during March and April.

If the rate falls down, EUR/GBP may be supported at 0.8565/55 levels representing long term pivot and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2007-2008 growth.

 

[Dmitry Shagardin]

UBS: hung parliament isn’t fatal for pound

UBS analysts think that even if the elections will end by getting hung Parliament, pound’s decline will be only temporary as all 3 parties are going to fight against the country’s huge budget deficit.

The specialists note that the cable can find itself in the most dangerous situation if the Conservative Party gets a majority and begins to reduce deficit with a too rapidly without waiting for the recovery to get more firm. According to UBS, quickly budget shortfall cutting is the outcome to really fear.

The economists believe that if the Bank of England decided to restart quantitative easing program that would have negative impact on pound.

Toronto Dominion: loonie will rise to 98 cents per US dollar

Canadian currency was very close to the parity with US dollar. The market was waiting for some clue that bailout won’t let the budget crisis to spread to the other indebted European countries.

Analysts at Desjardins Group in Montreal note that loonie was trading in a narrow 73-point range between C$0.9984 and C$1.0057 during 11 of the past 14 trading days.

Canada’s currency will be influenced by Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney’s tomorrow comments, the Federal Open Market Committee interest rate decision on the next day, US and Canadian GDP releases on April 30 and news about Greece’s situation.

Analysts at Toronto Dominion expect Canadian dollar to reach 98 cents per US dollar by the end of June and 95 cents by the end of the third quarter.

 

[Dmitry Shagardin]

Royal Bank of Scotland: Greek crisis turned into European one

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet and International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn are now in Berlin in order to persuade the country’s authorities to provide Greece financial help as uncertainty only worsens the situation.

Trichet didn’t manage to prevent the single currency from 12% decrease against the dollar in the past five months as politicians can't reach firm agreement on the aid for Greece.

Germany will have to grant Greece the biggest individual loan of $60 billion aid package.

Economists at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London claim that if Greece doesn’t get help, it will weight on the economy of the whole euro zone and German jobs. They underline that the financial crisis stopped being just Greek but became European. Economists at KBC Securities note that the possibility of Greek default is constantly rising.

Bank of New Zealand Ltd.: Aussi will grow

Australian dollar gained versus all 16 of its main counterparts. It rose from a 4-week minimum versus US dollar. It happened as in the first quarter of 2010 inflation increased nearly in 2 times. As a result, the probability of Reserve Bank’s interest rates hike got higher.

Strategists at Bank of New Zealand Ltd. in Wellington claim that inflation data exceeded market’s expectations and Aussi will be rising on the speculation about rates’ increase. Consumer prices added 0.9% last quarter, after gaining 0.5% in the previous 3 months.

Australia central bank’s meeting will take place next week.

Credit Agricole: pound will decline in the long term

British currency declined versus 14 of its 16 major competitors.

It happened as the former Bank of England policy maker Timothy Besley claimed that the country’s economy was still too weak. He thinks that further evidence is needed to show the recovery is taking hold.

Strategists at Credit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank in London see that the cable will stay under pressure in the long term. According to them, the reasons are in growing political uncertainty and GDP figures released last week showing that in the first quarter UK economy added only 0.2% while the results of the previous 3 months were twice better.

Pound lost 5.7% versus the dollar in the past three months.

 

[pssonice]

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[leovirgo]

Re: give us an idea for ...

transfering news into profitable trades.

these are the fundamental analyses, why don't you pick your own TA to trade? your way of posting is already qualified as 'trolling'... enough to earn some infractions

 

[Dmitry Shagardin]

EUR/USD: technical analysis

The single currency was rebounding in the short term from year's minimum at 1.3145 but didn't managed to get higher than 1.3265. Euro lost nearly 70 pips. It happened as German CPI release turned out to be worse than expected. In April it contracted by 0.1% while investors thought that it would rise by 0.1%.

As a result, European currency was pulled down again to 1.3200 area.
If the rate goes up, resistance levels will be at 1.3265 (session’s maximum), 1.3275/85 (intra-day level/April 26 minimum) and 1.3320/25 (intra-day level).

If the pair declines, support levels will lie at 1.3145 (session’s minimum), 1.3130 and 1.3100.

USD/JPY: technical analysis

The greenback is rebounding versus Japanese yen. US currency managed to win back its Tuesday losses. It grew from yesterday’s minimum of 92.80 on Tuesday getting above 93.40.

If the pair overcomes 94.40 resistance it can continue rising to 95.00 zone. The principal support lies now in 93.75 area.

The pair is currently trading at 93.80/90. If the rate goes up, resistance levels will be at 94.40, 94.80 and 95.10. If the pair declines, support levels are 94.00, 93.75 and 93.40.



You can find more information at out site)

 

[Dmitry Shagardin]

Re: give us an idea for ...

transfering news into profitable trades.

We're putting together currency forecasts of major banks and companies and we also make TA. I'll try to post it often!
You can visit our site if you're interested)

 

[Dmitry Shagardin]

Saxo Bank: daily currency forecast

According to the daily forecast of Saxo Bank’s analysts, trend for EUR/USD is regarded as neutral. It’s possible that the single currency will be able to recover to 1.3285. As a result, Saxo Bank projects that the pair will fluctuate in range between 1.32 and 1.3285.

The greenback is expected to rise versus Japanese yen to test 94.85. In this case, it’s advised to buy dollar from 93.37 to 94.75 yen.

British pound may extend against US dollar to 1.53. It’s necessary to buy sterling under 1.5145 stopping below 1.5095.

The pair AUD/USD is likely to increase to 0.9225/35. Purchasing should start above 0.9175.

The trend for USD/CAD is regarded as neutral. The pair is going to consolidate between 1.0050 and 1.0150.

UBS, BNP Paribas: negative forecast on euro

Currency strategists at UBS AG in Stamford claim that euro will rest under rising bearish pressure in the near term affected by political uncertainty and escalated borrowing costs.

Analysts at Bank of New York Mellon Corp. report that pension funds and banks sold euro in April at the highest pace since the second half of 2008. That time European currency lost more than 25% versus the greenback from the middle of July to the end of October.

Analysts at BNP Paribas note that investors keep using any rebound of euro to sell the single currency. The specialists expect euro to drop to $1.2650.

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See further information at our site!

 

[Dmitry Shagardin]

Barclays Capital: dollar can gain to maximum since August 2008

Analysts at Barclays Capital think that if the greenback manages to close above 95 yen, it can head towards the maximal level since August 2008 at 110.29 yen.

According to the specialists, the currency may rise through the top of a weekly ichimoku cloud at 94.30 yen and its 21-month average at 94.76 yen. Barclays Capital expects the end of April to be important for dollar.

The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg is that dollar will rise to 100 yen by end the year.

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