A low-risk/high reward Soros Style trade

marbig said:
You will not have to wait 20 years.
You will not have to wait 20 months.
You will not have to wait 20 weeks.
And I humbly suggest that it's NOT a sh1t trade.

When the market cracks the 1.20 eur/chf, it will be quick and when most people least expect it. So set your trades now in preparation.

And the main beauty of the Soros trade was NOT great timing. How long do you think Soros took to build his position.Do you think that he knew WHEN the GBP was going to crack? (The timing of the announcement by the BoE was a surprise to everyone)

The success of the Soros trade was his commitment and belief in the fundamental economic rationale that the GBP was being grossly (and artificially) overvalued for European Monetary Union purposes.
Click to expand...
I respectfully disagree with most of this. I can expand on the details, if you like.
 
marbig said:
I see that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has again intervened to hold the Euro/Swiss Franc to 1.20
Swiss National Bank steps back into currency markets - Telegraph

The Eur/Chf of 1.20 will collapse.

Any budding George Soros traders will know that a Central Bank that attempts to hold a currency at a specific level will ALWAYS get beaten by the market.
The Money Market/ Hedge fund sharks can smell the blood in the water as the SNB bleeds from all the Euros that it bought. (It has been buying Euros with Swiss francs so that the Swiss franc would be weaker).

The SNB is now taking sizable losses from its purchases of the Euro over the last 8 months when it started to try to weaken the Swissie. (The Swiss Govt is desperate to weaken the Swiss franc to keep its industries competitive)

But the STREAM of money from Greece to the safe haven of the Swiss Franc has turned into a RIVER of money as Spain and Portugal now weaken and their citizens also send their money to the Swissie safe haven.
It will soon turn into a FLOOD of money to the Swissie as Italy and France get weakened by the elections in the near future and the increase in bond yields.

(High reward) The fall in the euro/swissie is guaranteed by the inevitable and impending future TORRENTIAL FLOODING into the Swissie.
(Low risk) The chance of the SNB being able to engineer a substantial and ongoing weakening in the Swissie is neglible. NO country can continue indefinitely to buy Euros that keep falling in value.

In summary, SELLING the Eur/Chf is an exceptional low risk/high reward trade. It may take a while, but it will happen! (y)
Click to expand...

Doubled my exposure to this trade today. Sold Eur/Chf at 1.2020.
Sold and hold.

Potential election of Hollande in France and problems in Holland are pushing Euro in my favour. The Swiss National Bank are now taking punishing losses on their purchases of the Euro.
It is costing them more and more each day to try to soften the effects of the flood of money flowing into the Chf
 
marbig said:
Doubled my exposure to this trade today. Sold Eur/Chf at 1.2020.
Sold and hold.

Potential election of Hollande in France and problems in Holland are pushing Euro in my favour. The Swiss National Bank are now taking punishing losses on their purchases of the Euro.
It is costing them more and more each day to try to soften the effects of the flood of money flowing into the Chf
Click to expand...
With all due respect, this is also incorrect.
 
marbig said:
Doubled my exposure to this trade today. Sold Eur/Chf at 1.2020.
Sold and hold.

Potential election of Hollande in France and problems in Holland are pushing Euro in my favour. The Swiss National Bank are now taking punishing losses on their purchases of the Euro.
It is costing them more and more each day to try to soften the effects of the flood of money flowing into the Chf
Click to expand...

do some more, its free money as you claim, always is, thats why the whole world is doing the same trade
 
Martinghoul said:
With all due respect, this is also incorrect.
Click to expand...

Then you should go long on the Eur/Chf.

But Spain has been losing €10 Billion per WEEK to Switzerland for the last couple of months as the wealthy Spanish move to the safe haven currency.
The Greeks are still losing € 7 Billion per week and the Portuguese are just starting to seriously move their funds out of the Euro.
If Mr Hollande gets elected in France, then you can expect a deluge from France as well. (the last time a leftist government won power, the French bourse dropped 20% in the next trading session).
 
marbig said:
But Spain has been losing €10 Billion per WEEK to Switzerland for the last couple of months as the wealthy Spanish move to the safe haven currency.
The Greeks are still losing € 7 Billion per week and the Portuguese are just starting to seriously move their funds out of the Euro.
If Mr Hollande gets elected in France, then you can expect a deluge from France as well. (the last time a leftist government won power, the French bourse dropped 20% in the next trading session).
Click to expand...

Marbig, you have a well reasoned set of posts in this thread.

I am going to join you in this trade. I have just set my sell orders at 1.2020. (I am hoping for a small bounce in the EUR to get me into the trade).

I agree that this could be a longer term trade, but I think that it may be much sooner than people think. Definitely worth a punt by me. Thanks for the thread.
 
marbig said:
Then you should go long on the Eur/Chf.

But Spain has been losing €10 Billion per WEEK to Switzerland for the last couple of months as the wealthy Spanish move to the safe haven currency.
The Greeks are still losing € 7 Billion per week and the Portuguese are just starting to seriously move their funds out of the Euro.
If Mr Hollande gets elected in France, then you can expect a deluge from France as well. (the last time a leftist government won power, the French bourse dropped 20% in the next trading session).
Click to expand...

Mr Hollande has now been elected in France. The French bourse will take a big hit when it opens.

The Eur/Usd has dropped 120 pips in the first hour of trading. (I am making big bucks on that pair).:clap:

Yet the Eur/Chf has not moved. I have doubled my trade again on selling the Eur/Chf.(y)
 
marbig said:
Mr Hollande has now been elected in France. The French bourse will take a big hit when it opens.

The Eur/Usd has dropped 120 pips in the first hour of trading. (I am making big bucks on that pair).:clap:

Yet the Eur/Chf has not moved. I have doubled my trade again on selling the Eur/Chf.(y)
Click to expand...

Sold and hold for the Eur/Chf. Its a medium term winner trade. The SNB simply cannot hold against the raging torrent of money moving from the Eur to the Chf.(y)

Edit Have closed all the Eur/Usd trades for nice profits. :clap: Will come back and hit that market again later.
 
marbig said:
Then you should go long on the Eur/Chf.

But Spain has been losing €10 Billion per WEEK to Switzerland for the last couple of months as the wealthy Spanish move to the safe haven currency.
The Greeks are still losing € 7 Billion per week and the Portuguese are just starting to seriously move their funds out of the Euro.
If Mr Hollande gets elected in France, then you can expect a deluge from France as well. (the last time a leftist government won power, the French bourse dropped 20% in the next trading session).
Click to expand...
I am short CHF, indeed, but I don't like to be long EUR. As I have said before, I am long NOKCHF and SEKCHF both and enjoying it.

As to your figures, 10bil a week and 7bil a week are numbers that you have exaggerated quite a bit. At any rate, best of luck to you and let's see what happens.
 
marbig said:

Sold and hold for the Eur/Chf. Its a medium term winner trade. The SNB simply cannot hold against the raging torrent of money moving from the Eur to the Chf.(y)

Edit Have closed all the Eur/Usd trades for nice profits. :clap: Will come back and hit that market again later.
Click to expand...

Eur/Usd shorts have been very kind to me in the last couple of weeks.

Have maintained my sold and hold for Eur/Chf.
 
marbig said:
Eur/Usd shorts have been very kind to me in the last couple of weeks.

Have maintained my sold and hold for Eur/Chf.
Click to expand...
Well, so, basically, it appears that you just wanna be short EUR, which isn't smth I disagree with. However, if you wanna make money being short EUR, why choose to do it vs one of the few ccies where a) the CB is intervening; and b) carry is negative? Surely that doesn't make a lot of sense? So, for example, if you took the risk capital allocated to EURCHF and actually used it to do EURUSD, wouldn't you have done a lot better?
 
The EURCHF spike was on the back of Medley, so nothing really of any significance.

As to EURUSD, it's relevant, because it's a different way to be short EUR, innit?
 
Last edited:
Martinghoul said:
The EURCHF spike was on the back of Medley, so nothing really of any significance.
Click to expand...

It IS significant if you were short around 1.2010 area. Many traders in that position were stopped out. Some brokers spiked as high as 1.2075. Today it ended back at 1.2006

There are certainly better ways of using your money.

Peter
 
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