5 countries in deep financial trouble

hhiusa

Senior member
2,687 139
It should not be a suprise to anyone about the countries on this list.

Mexico
Thousands of would-be tourists from America and elsewhere had to cancel spring break trips to Mexico due to ongoing violence related to the drug trade. Mexico was the second country recently identified by the U.S. Joint Forces Command as possibly poised for a "rapid and sudden" collapse. Mexico's "politicians, police, and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and pressure by criminal gangs and drug cartels," says the report.
The violence and tourism decline could not come at a worse time. Economists predict a 3.3 percent contraction of the Mexican economy this year. The poor economic growth means that the government is getting strapped for funds. In April, it asked the International Monetary Fund for a $47 billion loan. While credit-rating agencies don't expect Mexico's debt to grow riskier soon, and the risk of its sovereign derivatives has not skyrocketed like some other countries on this list, serious problems still remain for the Mexican economy. The country depends on the United States to consume its exports and pay Mexican immigrants who send money back home. If the U.S. recession deepens, Mexicans will feel the pain as much as Americans.

Latvia
Iceland isn't the only country that's seen massive protests against economic hardship. In January, a 10,000-strong demonstration in Latvia's capital, Riga, turned into a riot. Tremendous economic growth since the end of the Cold War earned Latvia its place as one of the "Baltic Tigers." GDP growth was 11.2 percent in 2006, for instance. But Latvia's Ministry of Finance forecasts a 14.9 percent drop in GDP this year. Latvia is getting a $7.5 billion emergency loan from the IMF, but the organization is sitting on part of the money because of the Latvian government's failures thus far to reform its budget. The past two years have seen the cost of Latvia's credit default swaps increase over one-hundred fold. Moody's rates Latvia's bonds as Baa1, or "moderate" credit risks, and projects that they could become riskier bets in the medium term.

Croatia
The country's beaches on the Adriatic Sea draw so many visitors that tourism is almost 20 percent of the country's GDP. But since the recession is taking a bite out of travelers' pocketbooks, Croatia's economy is getting bitten as well. The government forecasts unemployment could rise as high as 12 percent this year. And a recent poll found that 78 percent of Croatians think the country is going in a bad direction, with unemployment cited as the primary reason. All this bad economic news might be one of the reasons S&P projects a possible rating decline for Croatia's BBB-rated bonds. The BBB rating means that Croatia does not have payment problems yet, but are in a position where their ability to pay for debt could be easily weakened.

Kazakhstan
While the Central Asian nation's GDP has grown in recent years, Kazakhstan has two problems that have created the potential for economic disaster: a reliance on foreign lending and a reliance on oil. Kazakhstan holds 3.2 percent of world's oil reserves. But the soaring oil prices that have boosted Kazakhstan's economy are no more, and investors have pulled money out of Kazakhstan in response. The cost of buying protection against Kazakhstan's debt has skyrocketed about 75 percent during the past year. The cost is back up to a peak reached in October, and it currently costs $875,000 a year to insure $10 million of Kazakhstan's debt. S&P has a negative outlook on Kazakhstan's BBB-rated sovereign bonds, meaning they could get riskier in the next six months to two years.

Belarus
Minsk, the capital of Belarus, was mostly destroyed during World War II and much of the city was rebuilt in the form of hulking, utilitarian, Soviet-style buildings. Belarus also retains a heavy Soviet influence in its financial system—all but one of the country's 31 banks is controlled by the state, according to AM Best. Because of Belarus's failure to reform its financial system, the firm gives the country its highest score for financial risk. Even though Belarus scores relatively well for political stability, that economic rating is enough to push it into the riskiest of the report's classifications.

Belarus's problems aren't just speculative. Although its economy is still growing, the IMF expects it will expand 1.4 percent this year, compared to 10 percent last year.The country's government has also been approved for a $2.46 billion IMF loan. But the IMF now forecasts that the country will need a further $10.7 billion in 2009. Still, other experts disagree about just how fragile Belarus's economy is. Its bonds are rated as B1 from Moody's, meaning high credit risk but also at the top of the pack of the high-risk countries.
 

Jack o'Clubs

Experienced member
1,554 342
I stopped reading (or at least ascribing credibility) here:


If the U.S. recession deepens, Mexicans will feel the pain as much as Americans

Since the US economy is not in recession.

And here:

Economists predict a 3.3 percent contraction of the Mexican economy this year.

Since Mexican GDP will grow about 2.5% this year.
 
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Jack o'Clubs

Experienced member
1,554 342
You complete and utter chump. This is cut and paste from an article from 2009.

You ponce around this forum writing garbage like:

Wikipedia is not a source. It is a second-hand source at best. :LOL::LOL:

I meant cite a real source from a scholarly journal, peer-reviewed source or a natural person who is an authority on the subject. Citing Wikipedia is like citing the sister of your best-friend's grandmother.

Ever heard of the game of "Telephone" or "Chinese Whispers"!

And yet you're too bloody thick to realise the facts don't stack up to someone with even half a brain in something you cut and paste. You really are an idiot. Maybe you should start sourcing from Wilipedia, it'd be more accurate.
 
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Pat494

Legendary member
14,501 1,542
Here is an interesting video of 10 countries which are near to breaking up.

 

hhiusa

Senior member
2,687 139
You complete and utter chump. This is cut and paste from an article from 2009.

You ponce around this forum writing garbage like:



And yet you're too bloody thick to realise the facts don't stack up to someone with even half a brain in something you cut and paste. You really are an idiot. Maybe you should start sourcing from Wilipedia, it'd be more accurate.

I copied the article so that it could read from here. Wikipedia and accurate are antonyms. Which facts don't stack up? This sounds more like you are too "bloody thick" to even state anything in a coherent fashion even resembling an argument. Try stating an thought instead of mudslinging.
 

hhiusa

Senior member
2,687 139
I stopped reading (or at least ascribing credibility) here:




Since the US economy is not in recession.

And here:



Since Mexican GDP will grow about 2.5% this year.

The US economy could stay in recession and it wouldn't matter because it is only a $1 trillion short of the GDP for the entire EU, which is comprised of 28 failing member states. Every country depends upon the economy of the US. It is so big that a single collapsing sector of the market (real estate), sent European countries into a recession. Your goverments bought the United States" bad debt and they shoveled the steaming bad of *$%# to Europe. Hook, line, sinker.


Ireland is in hot water as well.
 

Jack o'Clubs

Experienced member
1,554 342
I copied the article so that it could read from here. Wikipedia and accurate are antonyms. Which facts don't stack up? This sounds more like you are too "bloody thick" to even state anything in a coherent fashion even resembling an argument. Try stating an thought instead of mudslinging.

You've cut and paste the whole thing from this 2009 article. Chump.


http://money.usnews.com/money/business-economy/articles/2009/04/17/10-countries-in-deep-trouble

Do you read or understand anything you mindlessly cut and paste onto this forum? Did it occur to you, as it did me, that there might be a problem with an article stating the Mexican economy is due to contract -3%, when it's obvious it's growing? Are you gullible or stupid, or both?
 
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hhiusa

Senior member
2,687 139
You've cut and paste the whole thing from this 2009 article. Chump.


http://money.usnews.com/money/business-economy/articles/2009/04/17/10-countries-in-deep-trouble

Do you read or understand anything you mindlessly cut and paste onto this forum? Did it occur to you, as it did me, that there might be a problem with an article stating the Mexican economy is due to contract -3%, when it's obvious it's growing? Are you gullible or stupid, or both?

I didn't cut and paste this. I used Excel and uploaded the image below.

Judging by these countries credit ratings, it is clear to see who is in bad shape.
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/forex/206236-standard-poors-sovereigns-rating-list.html

The general meaning of our credit rating opinions is summarized below.
AAA’—Extremely strong capacity to meet financial commitments. Highest Rating.
AA’—Very strong capacity to meet financial commitments.
A’—Strong capacity to meet financial commitments, but somewhat susceptible to adverse economic conditions and changes in circumstances.
BBB’—Adequate capacity to meet financial commitments, but more subject to adverse economic conditions.
BBB-‘—Considered lowest investment grade by market participants.
BB+’—Considered highest speculative grade by market participants.
‘BB’—Less vulnerable in the near-term but faces major ongoing uncertainties to adverse business, financial and economic conditions.
B’—More vulnerable to adverse business, financial and economic conditions but currently has the capacity to meet financial commitments.
CCC’—Currently vulnerable and dependent on favorable business, financial and economic conditions to meet financial commitments.
CC’—Currently highly vulnerable.
C’—Currently highly vulnerable obligations and other defined circumstances.
D’—Payment default on financial commitments.

Mexico
Local: A Foreign: BBB+
Portugal
Local: BB Foreign: BB

It is not suprising Mexico rates themselves better than they are.
 

Jack o'Clubs

Experienced member
1,554 342
Your thread starts with six or seven big paragraphs cut and paste from an article written in 2009. True or false? Maybe you didn't realise it was written in 2009, although anyone with a bit of nous would have spotted the clues. BUT MY POINT IS THAT YOU ARE OBNOXIOUS TO A LONG STANDING AND USEFUL FORUM CONTRIBUTOR LIKE SPITLINK FOR QUOTING WIKI AND THEN UNCRITICALLY POST COMPLETE CRAP FROM A 6 YEAR OLD SOURCE AND ARE TOO THICK TO EVEN REALISE YOU'VE DONE IT.
 

Fugazsy

Veteren member
3,661 677
Your thread starts with six or seven big paragraphs cut and paste from an article written in 2009. True or false? Maybe you didn't realise it was written in 2009, although anyone with a bit of nous would have spotted the clues. BUT MY POINT IS THAT YOU ARE OBNOXIOUS TO A LONG STANDING AND USEFUL FORUM CONTRIBUTOR LIKE SPITLINK FOR QUOTING WIKI AND THEN UNCRITICALLY POST COMPLETE CRAP FROM A 6 YEAR OLD SOURCE AND ARE TOO THICK TO EVEN REALISE YOU'VE DONE IT.

lol
 

Jack o'Clubs

Experienced member
1,554 342
I didn't cut and paste this. I used Excel and uploaded the image below.

Judging by these countries credit ratings, it is clear to see who is in bad shape.
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/forex/206236-standard-poors-sovereigns-rating-list.html

The general meaning of our credit rating opinions is summarized below.
AAA’—Extremely strong capacity to meet financial commitments. Highest Rating.
AA’—Very strong capacity to meet financial commitments.
A’—Strong capacity to meet financial commitments, but somewhat susceptible to adverse economic conditions and changes in circumstances.
BBB’—Adequate capacity to meet financial commitments, but more subject to adverse economic conditions.
BBB-‘—Considered lowest investment grade by market participants.
BB+’—Considered highest speculative grade by market participants.
‘BB’—Less vulnerable in the near-term but faces major ongoing uncertainties to adverse business, financial and economic conditions.
B’—More vulnerable to adverse business, financial and economic conditions but currently has the capacity to meet financial commitments.
CCC’—Currently vulnerable and dependent on favorable business, financial and economic conditions to meet financial commitments.
CC’—Currently highly vulnerable.
C’—Currently highly vulnerable obligations and other defined circumstances.
D’—Payment default on financial commitments.

Mexico
Local: A Foreign: BBB+
Portugal
Local: BB Foreign: BB

It is not suprising Mexico rates themselves better than they are.

You utter mong. Foreign and local refers to the bond currency. Local ccy bonds will usually have a higher rating than foreign (usually dollar) because there is no FX mismatch risk. You have absolutely no clue what you're posting about do you? Idiot.
 
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hhiusa

Senior member
2,687 139
Check the credit ratings anywhere Mexico isn't in really good shape with a BB rating. Standard & Poor is a veritable source. I don't care if it was written 1990, the article has valid points about the failures of these economies. Remain in denial about these corrupt, backward economies. I wasn't the one doing the rating. It seems all that you can do repeat yourself about the 2009 and not read anything.
 

hhiusa

Senior member
2,687 139
You utter mong. Foreign and local refers to the bond currency. Local ccy bonds will usually have a higher rating than foreign (usually dollar) because there is no FX mismatch risk. You have absolutely no clue what you're posting about do you? Idiot.

What are you on about now? I was just amending my image below with text. The statement below is not related.
 

Jack o'Clubs

Experienced member
1,554 342
Mexico: S&P BBB+ FC long term, A-2 (investment grade) FC short term, A (investment grade) LC Long Term, A-1 (investment grade) short term. Ratings upgraded 2013. Source: Bloomberg Professional terminal five minutes ago. I can give you Moody's, Fitch and R&I as well if you want. None suggest an economy 'in trouble'. Now **** off and stop posting **** you don't understand.
 
 
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