29th November 2017 - The North Korean tests could temper the risk-on sentiment again

Walid Salah Eldin

Active member
204 1
The latest intercontinental ballistic missile launch from the new labeled a state sponsor of terrorism by Trump North Korea could temper the risk-on sentiment during the Asian session.
The North Korean missile test could drive down the future rates of the US major equities indexes raising the gold price again above $1295 per ounce to have a closer place to $1300 psychological level which could hold in the beginning of this week.
As usual, the North Korean test could temper sentiment in the Asian session driving the investors to take some of their profits off the table, after yesterday US blue chips new wave of gains which have been sparked by higher trust in the US economic growth.
After a surge in U.S. equities guided by the senate budget committee advancing of the republican tax bill and the unexpected rising of the U.S. consumer confidence to 17 year high in November.

While UST 10yr yield is still floating unchanged at 2.32%, after The Fed chairman nominee Jerome Powell confirmed before the Senate Banking Committee his support to the current way how the Fed operates the monetary policy.
He assured on continuation of the current gradual way of tightening by raising The Fed's benchmark interest rate and trimming its balance sheet.
Yellen's nominated successor said that the case for a December rate hike is coming together, after She said last week that the next interest rate rising will be relatively soon.
New York Fed President William Dudley who is to retire too next year from the Fed has said also that "the U.S. economy is running at close to full employment and growth is expanding at an above-trend pace".
The markets became fully priced on another interest rate hiking by 0.25% next month after these remarks, despite the worries about the low inflation pressure in US which have been highlighted in the recent FOMC's meeting minutes.

While the upbeating economic activities and the improving of labor market in US are still driving up the investors' appetite to load more US assets at the current prices which can grow up with inflation building up.
The data which came out earlier this week from US have shown monthly rising of US new home sales by 6.2% last October, while the market was waiting for decreasing by 6.3% after soaring by 14.2% in September.
The Conference Board reported on yesterday an unexpected improvement in U.S. consumer confidence in November to 129.5 from an upwardly revised 126.2 in October, while the consensus was referring to drop to 124.5 from the 125.9 originally reported for October.

God willing, We are waiting ahead today for the release of US Q3 GDP second reading which is expected to show upward annualized growth revision to 3.2%, after the preliminary reading has shown growth by 3% following expansion by 3.1% in the second quarter and by 1.4% in the first quarter.
The core PCE deflator, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation which is expected to show tomorrow yearly rising by 1.4% in October, after increasing by 1.3% in September, while the Fed's target is 2%.
Before next Friday waited Nov US ISM Manufacturing index release which is expected to show retreating to 58.5 from 58.7 in October.

The Gold gradual tendency to go up over the short term drove it to have a closer place to $1300 psychological level.
The gold is now at a higher place above its daily SMA50 and its daily SMA100 and its daily SMA200 which could pass below its formed bottom on last Oct. 6 at $1260.60.
As the selling pressure on gold has lost momentum since its bouncing up on last Oct. 27 from $1263.73 to keep this bottom unbroken.
XAUUSD is now trading in its 16th consecutive day of being above its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) which is reading today $1283.20.
XAUUSD daily RSI-14 is referring now to existence inside its neutral area reading 57.384.
XAUUSD daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in its neutral territory at 75.432 leading to the upside its signal line which is in the same area at 74.273.

Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ $1283.09, Daily SMA100 @ $1284.91 and Daily SMA200 @ $1266.49
S1: $1260.60
S2: $1251.16
S3: $1235.24
R1: $1306.03
R2: $1316.01
R3: $1335.04

Have a good day

Kind Regards
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends
Walid Salah El Din


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