Walid Salah Eldin
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The markets are still dominated by the prospects of watching continued solid growth pace in US with reflation and tax reforms ahead sooner or later.
The FOMC recent meeting minutes have shown last Wednesday that there are several policy makers became more concerned about the benign inflation pressure in US despite the economic recovery and the improving of the labor market.
But their worries are not looking enough to refrain them from raising the interest once more by 0.25% next month as widely expected.
With the trust in the economic activity in US and also EU, The oil prices could keep their ascending pace on supporting the energy companies shares around the globe, while the markets are waiting for clearing about OPEC and non-OPEC oil cut extension.
The equities major indexes future rates in US are in the positive territory, after they could easily rebound to their record highs amid this week thin trading volumes.
The US equities could drive up their counterparts in European markets which looked unfazed of the mixed political stance in Germany, After the dramatic collapse of Merkel's governmental coalition talks with 2 parties on a dispute over the migration policy.
Merkel looked skeptical about forming a minority government and said that "she prefers new elections". She is looking now for renewing the grand coalition with SPD and the reviving of this perspective could calm down the markets.
From another side, Nov EU PMI flash figures came yesterday to show solider expansion pace in both of the manufacturing sector and the service sector.
The odds of watching lower unemployment rate and stronger price pressure in EU can give the ECB leeway to raise to track the Fed in raising rates next year, despite the Brexit which is expected to erode the economic growth rate in EU and UK.
The optimism about global growth could contain the market sentiment in Japan too sending Nikkei 225 to its highest level since the financial crisis, despite the Japanese yen appreciation in the recent days.
But this optimism seems worrying the financial authority in China which is looking ahead for lower leverage to keep the demand for the Chinese bonds up putting weights on their yields to tackle them, while the global yield curves are rising.
It seems that China which is looking for sustaining its financial situation became more interested in paying lower debt cost than containing the inflation pressure ahead.
After bottoming out at 1.1553, EURUSD could have in the beginning of this week a higher low at 1.1712 in its returning way to retest 1.1880 resistance level which kept the pair below it for almost 2 months.
EURUSD is now above its daily SMA50, its daily SMA100, while it is still underpinned over longer range by continued being above its daily SMA200
After the pair had formed a series of higher lows starting with its formed bottom at 1.0340 on the third day of this year to be the lowest level of the pair since December 2002.
EURUSD is trading in its ninth day above its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) which is reading now 1.1633, after gathering upside momentum on Nov. 14.
EURUSD daily RSI-14 is referring now to existence in a lower place inside the neutral region reading 61.512.
EURUSD daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in its overbought area above 80 at 94.550 leading to the upside its signal line which is still in the neutral region at 68.414.
Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 1.1761, Daily SMA100 @ 1.1764 and Daily SMA200 @ 1.1344
S&R:
S1: 1.1712
S2: 1.1553
S3: 1.1479
R1: 1.1880
R2: 1.2032
R3: 1.2092
Kind Regards
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends
Walid Salah El Din
The FOMC recent meeting minutes have shown last Wednesday that there are several policy makers became more concerned about the benign inflation pressure in US despite the economic recovery and the improving of the labor market.
But their worries are not looking enough to refrain them from raising the interest once more by 0.25% next month as widely expected.
With the trust in the economic activity in US and also EU, The oil prices could keep their ascending pace on supporting the energy companies shares around the globe, while the markets are waiting for clearing about OPEC and non-OPEC oil cut extension.
The equities major indexes future rates in US are in the positive territory, after they could easily rebound to their record highs amid this week thin trading volumes.
The US equities could drive up their counterparts in European markets which looked unfazed of the mixed political stance in Germany, After the dramatic collapse of Merkel's governmental coalition talks with 2 parties on a dispute over the migration policy.
Merkel looked skeptical about forming a minority government and said that "she prefers new elections". She is looking now for renewing the grand coalition with SPD and the reviving of this perspective could calm down the markets.
From another side, Nov EU PMI flash figures came yesterday to show solider expansion pace in both of the manufacturing sector and the service sector.
The odds of watching lower unemployment rate and stronger price pressure in EU can give the ECB leeway to raise to track the Fed in raising rates next year, despite the Brexit which is expected to erode the economic growth rate in EU and UK.
The optimism about global growth could contain the market sentiment in Japan too sending Nikkei 225 to its highest level since the financial crisis, despite the Japanese yen appreciation in the recent days.
But this optimism seems worrying the financial authority in China which is looking ahead for lower leverage to keep the demand for the Chinese bonds up putting weights on their yields to tackle them, while the global yield curves are rising.
It seems that China which is looking for sustaining its financial situation became more interested in paying lower debt cost than containing the inflation pressure ahead.
After bottoming out at 1.1553, EURUSD could have in the beginning of this week a higher low at 1.1712 in its returning way to retest 1.1880 resistance level which kept the pair below it for almost 2 months.
EURUSD is now above its daily SMA50, its daily SMA100, while it is still underpinned over longer range by continued being above its daily SMA200
After the pair had formed a series of higher lows starting with its formed bottom at 1.0340 on the third day of this year to be the lowest level of the pair since December 2002.
EURUSD is trading in its ninth day above its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) which is reading now 1.1633, after gathering upside momentum on Nov. 14.
EURUSD daily RSI-14 is referring now to existence in a lower place inside the neutral region reading 61.512.
EURUSD daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in its overbought area above 80 at 94.550 leading to the upside its signal line which is still in the neutral region at 68.414.
Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 1.1761, Daily SMA100 @ 1.1764 and Daily SMA200 @ 1.1344
S&R:
S1: 1.1712
S2: 1.1553
S3: 1.1479
R1: 1.1880
R2: 1.2032
R3: 1.2092
Kind Regards
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends
Walid Salah El Din
