28th September 2017 - The Fear of Tension Escalating in Iraq sends WTI higher

Walid Salah Eldin

Active member
201 1
WTI could easily keep its creeping up to be traded currently near $52.75 per barrel, after US EIA crude oil inventory in the week ending on Sep. 22 by 1.846m barrels to 470.986m.
While the talking is still running in the markets about the possibility of extending the current OPEC and non-OPEC cut deal which has started in the beginning of this year.
The oil prices are still underpinned by the rising worries about the supplements from the North of Iraq "Kurdistan" increased significantly following The Kurds referendum.

The Kurdish independence referendum can spur a new wave of violence in the middle east, after it ended to supporting the independence of Kurdistan by 92.7% of the votes with 72.16% sharing of eligible voters.
The referendum has been condemned by Iraq and its neighbor countries which have millions of Kurds who can ask for joining their counterparts in Iraq.
Despite the economic negative impact on it, Turkey has said that it is to cut the oil supplies from Kurdistan and it did not rule out the direct military intersection in Kurdistan.

The escalating door is wide opened in this hot region of the world, as Iraq is now looking for Re-controlling Kirkuk which is the biggest oil field in the region, after the Kurds have kept it in hand following Saddam's falling.
Kirkuk in the main source of funds to The Kurds and the oil barrel from it has one of the world cheapest costs.
Surely, the Kurds cannot accept that submission to the central government in Bagdad and also it's hard to believe that Kurdistan may change its current boarders following that denied referendum by Iraq.
The Kurds believed that there will never be acceptance of their referendum from inside Iraq or even from outside of it.
So, they have chosen to make this referendum in its pre-announced appointment anyway triggering "The Iraqi main concern since 2003".

After limited setback to 51.50, WTI could resume its ascending channel to be traded currently near $52.75 in a higher place above its daily SMA50, its daily SMA100 and also its daily SMA200.
After forming a bottom at $45.82 at the end of last August, WTI could keep its existence above its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) which is reading $50.54 today in its day number 19 of continued being below the trading rate.
WTI could gather higher upside momentum by coming over its resistance at $50.45 which stopped it previously in the beginning of last August.
WTI daily RSI-14 is referring now to existence inside its overbought territory above 70 reading 72.850.
WTI daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having its main line now also inside its overbought region above 80 at 87.472 leading to the upside its signal line which is lower in this same area at 86.140.

Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 48.90, Daily SMA100 @ 47.82 and Daily SMA200 @ 49.75
S1: 51.50
S2: 49.65
S3: 47.46
R1: 54.08
R2: 55.05
R3: 55.73

Kind Regards
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends
Walid Salah El Din


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