27th Nov declare your positions

[SSINGH]

wouldn't buy in yet....i'm waiting for a buy at around 4100....exiting at my target of 4300..then shorting from here...thats shorting from 4300 to finish my trading cycle!

 

[minime69]

utilising 1 week, 1 hour chart..............

RSI = 70 indicating over bought - sell signal
MACD= neutral with negative bias - especially after 4 day run
bollinger bands also indicate a sell.........

hi wallstreet,

missed most the morning, on your charts are you using a 1 week chart and a 1 hour chart or is it a 1 week in 1 hour intervals?

sorry to ask but i like to see what signals you are getting when you trade, anyone else want to share chart set ups???

 

[wallstreet1928]

yes I looked at a 1 week chart and the time period being 1 hour!!

 

[wallstreet1928]

damn i got out too early................still have to learn to be patient and let profits run!!

that's something that i'll never learn

 

[Interceptor]

Possibly the dreariest day I can remember.
FTSE's like a lost child-it doesn't know which way to go without the Dow holding it's little hand.

 

[wallstreet1928]

haha...............I like the analogy!!

yes it has been clinging to 4200 level....

just sit on the sidelines mate.........I'm currently neutral!!

 

[wallstreet1928]

if Dow can break 8700 level convincigly then I'll go long otherwise i'm sitting back..........

 

[tommac]

Blimey--I`m falling asleep here. Are we really this pathetic that we can`t make up our own minds.

 

[minime69]

the old boredom headache kicking in.

 

[foredog]

Morning everyone............

I am neutral today with no trades as been too lazy to do research, I was up late last night playing Call of Duty 5 on PS3?! My asthma tends to flare up if I don't get a good nights sleep........

If you don't feel right don't trade....is my motto!!

I think I will trade in the afternoon when US markets open........

anybody got any live trades at present?

enlighten me?

Thats why it's a dull day today

all those good folks in the US having turkey for thanksgiving rather than trading.

Wish i'd done the same, couple of scrappy losses and not much chance to make them back....oh well sh*t happens

 

[wallstreet1928]

I have only done 1 trade today..........

I have finished work and now I'm off to Gym for a workout and play squash with mates!!

good luck all..........

foredog is right, relax and enjoy your evening like the Yankees...........

 

[tommac]

Thought my software had lost connection --but no , just that the market has ground to a halt

 

[Interceptor]

One trade, off at flat.
Methinks I'll start taking US bank holidays off, as well as ours.
Now THERE'S a plan!

 

[risk_monkey]

Still bearing down

Hi guys,

My FTSE view if you care for it...

Been shorting with options since around march and took profits (luckily enough) around mid october. I watched the rally from the sidelines which looked fishy to me; volume looked really low for the movement which is either huge long sentiment for most of the volume or a dead cat bounce...or a bit of both? Either way the retest this month around the 20th looked more convincing, sentiment really pushed this up probably fuelled by mutuals having to top up and taking the low as an opportunity. Currently sentiment has just dropped off dramatically, and it will probably looks worse due to thanks giving. So basically I have just taken a short position with a stop just above probable resistance around 4400. Though I would say that this is a pretty loose trade and if i hadnt just done quite so well out of previous trades I would probably hang on and wait to see if i could get better prices around 4400, should be using better money managment at the mo (but hey ho). If this goes my way I will probably trail a stop down to 3700 again at which point it would be nice to try for a new low, but in all probability will continue consolidating in the wedge till end of december.

Its still a bear trend, theres plenty of bad news in the pipleline... but seems too early for a new low.. so much to consider...

Cheers

 

[tomorton]

Shorts opened around 4209 this morning but neither stop nor target triggered. As said above, a really boring day. I am holding overnight but will lower stops a little.

 

[wallstreet1928]

I like your analysis risk_money... Keep it coming!!!

I'm bearish on this market as well been contemplating a short but the bank & oil sector seem to be recovering well and nobody seems to be taking there chips off the table....take barclays for example, it bounced off £1.20 and is currently around the £1.60 region without any consolidation.....!!!

Are we forming a mini bottom here for the short term?!!

I don't keep positions as long as you do, but your strategy is working well for you so keep it up and I wish you every success my friend.

Keep giving us your constructive analysis, I for one would really appreciate it

Thanks

 

[Interceptor]

Nice post, risk_monkey.

 

[risk_monkey]

Cyclicals and bear markets

I like your analysis risk_money... Keep it coming!!!

I'm bearish on this market as well been contemplating a short but the bank & oil sector seem to be recovering well and nobody seems to be taking there chips off the table....take barclays for example, it bounced off £1.20 and is currently around the £1.60 region without any consolidation.....!!!

Are we forming a mini bottom here for the short term?!!

Thanks for your comments wallstreet. Got some impressions for you on the banking sector.

I would agree about the possible proximity of a banking sector bottom. However the sector as a whole made a new low while the FTSE 100 didnt around 20th November. With governments being so protectionist about banks at the moment it is difficult to imagine many of them going bust, and at some point (probably when investors think the worst of the sub prime and other slime is factored in) long term investors will see the sector as heavily oversold. I would think sentiment for the sector will boost equities long before yields catch up.

In terms of the wider market its always useful to bear in mind the business cycle. I found a good diagram here in case you don't have one:

Sector Rotation for Recession - Lessons from the Business Cycle :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting Free Website

Its important to note that the finance sectors are almost always the first to fall at the beginning of a contraction. I've read lots of views that argue that the severity of the finance fall sets the pace for the remainder of the bear trend in the wider market. Which kind of makes sense in that most industries in general are dependant on a healthy credit and banking system. I would counter this by considering that many large businesses were very cash rich at the beginning of this disaster (though not GM apparently . Some other recent analysis on market oracle has said that as the bear market trend plays out it will form a long 'U' shape. Which is absolutely disastrous for options traders that thrive on volatility. IMO the end of the bear run may be gentler but when this is all over I think we are going to see a violent reversal in the markets. Governments are printing money like there's no tmrw. The inflationary M3 implications of this are going to reprice markets in a profound way. Cant wait to ride that one in a year or so!

Not sure about oil. Always steared clear of it due to the amount of political influence. OPEC are likely to reduce production shortly which will boost the price again, not sure how this will impact oil stocks. Perhaps you can tell me?

rm

 

[wallstreet1928]

interesting.............thanks for the diagram riskmoney!!

good analysis once again!!