26th July 2018 - Draghi's cautiousness undermines the common currency again

Walid Salah Eldin

Active member
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The single currency is still undermined by no sign of monetary policy shifting toward tightening, after the ECB's president Mario Draghi kept his cautiousness attitude further refraining from giving any new hint about the interest rate outlook in his press conference following the ECB governing council members meeting today.
The ECB as widely expected kept today the main refinancing rate at 0, the marginal lending rate at 0.25% and the deposit rate unchanged at -0.4% respectively.

The members ended their previous meeting on last Jun. 14 on a pledge to maintain the interest rates at their current low levels through the summer of 2019 driving EURUSD to form a lower high then at 1.1851.
Some market participants were looking forward today for figuring out when in 2019 summer, but he has seen that there is no need to figure out further of this given guidance.

Draghi indicated today that the risks to the growth outlook remain broadly balanced, While the inflation rose in June 2% year on year which is the highest scale of rising since February of last year and the unemployment has slipped to the lowest level since December 2008 reaching 8.4% thanks to the ECB accommodative policies.

There was also no will to refer to confrontation with Italy which has about $2.3tr of debt and has a new government willing to implement expansion measurements at the current growth expansion era which can allow to take such needed financial expansion measurements in Italy.

There was no need to stress this time on the warning about the Trade War tension impact on growth, After yesterday successful meeting between European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker and the US president Trump who pulled back his word about imposing 20% tariffs on the imported cars from EU.
There was also no need to reply or comment on Trump's accusation of currency manipulations to EU during his CNBC broadcasted meeting last Friday.

Anyway, the markets are cheered by that deescalating which should hold till reaching a trade deal between US and EU. S&P 500 is now gathering more upside momentum, after overtaking last Mar. 13 formed resistance at 2800 level.
While The focusing over the Trade War will be ahead limited between US and China, after Trump announced that he is thinking of imposing tariffs on all of the valued $505b Chinese imported goods to US.

EURUSD is still trading in consolidation between its formed resistance at 1.1851 on last Jun. 14 and its formed bottom on last Jun. 29 at 1.1508.
After repeated failure to rise above 1.1750, EURUSD retreated again to be trading currently close to 1.1655 just below its daily SMA50.
While the pair is still undermined over longer range by continued trading below its daily SMA100 and also its daily SMA200.
The pair is now in its seventh consecutive day below its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) which is reading today 1.1747, as the pair has been satisfied today by just reaching 1.1743.
EURUSD daily RSI-14 is referring now to existence inside the neutral region reading 46.759.
EURUSD daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in its neutral area at 61.014 leading to the downside its signal line which is higher at 67.974, after negative crossover in this same area.

Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 1.1680, Daily SMA100 @ 1.1938 and Daily SMA200 @ 1.1976
S1: 1.1508
S2: 1.1308
S3: 1.1109
R1: 1.1851
R2: 1.1996
R3: 1.2138

Kind Regards
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends
Walid Salah El Din


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