2023 Market Forecast by Solidecn.com

SOLIDECN

Experienced member
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Chart of the Day - EURTRY

Norges Bank decided to leave rates unchanged at a meeting today but there is one more rate decision to be announced today. Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey will announce its rate decision at 11:00 am GMT. Market expects no change from CBRT with one-week repo rate staying unchanged at 9:00 am GMT. The Bank said that it has ended the rate cut cycle after a 150 bp rate cut in November and indeed rates stayed unchanged at the December meeting later on. While Turkey is facing massive inflation, there is a view that rates may stay unchanged until mid-2023 when elections in Turkey take place. However, should the Bank make a move at one of the coming meetings, it is more likely to be another cut rather than hike.

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Apart from CBRT rate decisions, traders will also get a chance to take a look at ECB minutes. ECB hiked interest rates by 50 basis points at the latest meeting, slowing the pace of hikes from previous 75 bps. Bank noted that rates will have to rise further significantly and a balance sheet reduction schedule was also announced. While there were some rather dovish comments from ECB members in recent days, minutes may not reflect it as they relate to the December 15, 2022 meeting.

Taking a look at EURTRY chart at the H1 interval, we can see that the pair has bounced off the 200-hour moving average (purple line) and climbed above the 20.28 swing area later on. The nearest resistance zone to watch can be found in the 20.42 area and is marked with recent local highs. Should CBRT surprised with a rather unlikely rate cut, the pair may quickly jump above the aforementioned 20.42 zone and look towards all-time highs from late-2021 in the 20.68 area.​
 

SOLIDECN

Experienced member
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USDCAD - macroeconomic statistics did not support the position of the Canadian currency

The industrial goods price index lost 1.1% in December, exceeding the previous month's –0.5% decline, with annual growth slowing to 7.6% from 9.4% earlier. The value for commodities declined 3.1% after the –0.8% correction in November and from 7.9% to 7.5% YoY. The main reason for the negative dynamics is the fall in oil prices on world exchanges, where quotes of the benchmark Brent Crude Oil fell to 86.00.

The US dollar fell below the key support level of 102.000 in the USD Index against the negative statistics from the housing market: the volume of construction of new houses in December amounted to 1.382M, which was lower than 1.401M earlier, and the number of building permits issued amounted to 1.330M compared to 1.351M in November. Investors ignored data on initial jobless claims, which fell to 190.0K from 205.0K in a week.

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On the daily chart, the trading instrument is growing within the global Triangle pattern with dynamic boundaries 1.3620–1.3300 towards the resistance line, and the technical indicators maintain a sell signal and hint at a correction.

Resistance levels: 1.3523, 1.3697 | Support levels: 1.3409, 1.3224​

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SOLIDECN

Experienced member
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EURGBP Takes Advantage of the Additional Support Line Stability

The EURGBP pair faced additional negative pressures to form strong negative waves and suffer some losses by crawling towards 0.8722, to face additional support and settle above it, noting that the main stability within the bullish channel that appears on the chart allows us to wait to gather the additional positive momentum to manage to form bullish waves and target 0.8820 followed by pressing on 0.8880 barrier in order to find a way to resume the bullish rally in the upcoming period.

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The expected trading range for today is between 0.8740 and 0.8820.​
 

SOLIDECN

Experienced member
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BTCUSD - The pair's upside potential remains

Positive sentiment associated with monetary factors still prevails. Investors are confident that against the backdrop of declining inflationary pressures, the US regulator will start raising interest rates less rapidly, reducing the increment to 25 basis points from 50 basis points. These actions should lead to a decrease in support for the US currency and at the same time reduce the likelihood of the US economy going into recession, which increases the risk appetite of investors.

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The price corrected to the level of 22500 (Murrey level [6/8]), a breakdown of which will give the prospect of developing a decline to the levels of 21250 (Murrey level [5/8], Fibonacci retracement 61.8%) and 20000 (Murrey level [4/8], Fibonacci retracement 38.2%). The key level for the "bulls" remains the level of 23400, consolidation above which will ensure growth to the levels of 25000 (Murrey level [8/8]) and 26250 (Murrey level [+1/8]).

Resistance levels: 23400, 25000, 26250 | Support levels: 22500, 21250, 20000​

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SOLIDECN

Experienced member
EURUSD - Growth is possible.

On the daily chart, the downward wave of the higher level А ended, within which the fifth wave (5) of А formed, and the development of the upward wave B started. Now, the entry first wave 1 of (А) of B is developing, within which the third wave of the lower level iii of 1 has formed, a local correction has ended as the fourth wave iv of 1, and the fifth wave v of 1 is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the EURUSD pair will grow to the area of 1.1100 – 1.1300. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.0755.

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SOLIDECN

Experienced member

GBPUSD - Growth is possible.

On the daily chart, the downward fifth wave of the higher level 5 of (V) ended, within which the wave (5) of 5 formed, and the development of the upward first wave (1) started. Now, the third wave of the lower level 3 of (1) is forming, within which the wave iii of 3 has ended, a correction has formed as the wave iv of 3, and the wave v of 3 is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the GBPUSD pair will grow to the area of 1.2900–1.3500. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.1835.

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SOLIDECN

Experienced member
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EURJPY Keeps the Bearish Bias

EURJPY pair provided negative close below the additional barrier 142 yesterday, to increase the chances of activating the negative attack again, while the current weak trades are caused by stochastic contradiction against the moving average 55 that provides negative signals by settling below the mentioned barrier.

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These factors allow us to expect forming temporary sideways fluctuation until gathering the additional negative momentum to ease the mission of starting the negative attack and press on 140.25 level soon, while breaking it will confirm the continuation of the negativity by targeting 139.4 and 138.2 levels.​
 

SOLIDECN

Experienced member
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Silver - The price is in a correction and may grow.

On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level ended as the second wave (2), and the third wave (3) forms, within which the entry first wave of the lower level 1 of (3) develops. Now, the wave iii of 1 has formed, and a local correction is ending to develop as the wave iv of 1, within which the wave (c) of iv is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the XAGUSD pair will grow to the area of 26 – 27. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 21.80.

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SOLIDECN

Experienced member
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USDJPY - The price is in a correction and a fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 ended, and a downward correction develops as the fourth wave 4, within which the wave of the lower level a of 4 formed. Now, the wave b of 4 has ended, and the wave c of 4 is forming, within which the wave (iv) of c is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the USDJPY pair will fall to the area of 121.67 – 118. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 134.54.

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SOLIDECN

Experienced member
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EUR Drops After French and German PMIs

Flash PMI indices for January from France and Germany were released today at 8:15 am GMT and 8:30 am GMT, respectively. French release turned out to be mixed - the manufacturing index showed a big beat and returned above the 50 threshold while the services index missed expectations and moved deeper into contraction territory. Similarly mixed results were shown by German reading. However, in this case manufacturing data missed expectations while services gauge beat and moved back above 50 point threshold.

France
Manufacturing: 50.8 vs 49.7 expected (49.2 previously)
Services: 49.2 vs 49.9 expected (49.5 previously)

Germany
Manufacturing: 47.0 vs 47.8 expected: (47.1 previously)
Services: 50.4 vs 49.6 expected (49.2 previously)

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EURUSD moved lower in a knee-jerk move following the French release but this drop was quickly erased while European indices moved higher. However, upward move on EURUSD was entirely erased following release of German data. DE30 erased big part of the gain but continues to trade slightly above pre-announcement levels.

EURUSD took a hit following release of German PMI data and is looking back towards the 1.0860 support zone.​
 

SOLIDECN

Experienced member
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USDCHF Negotiates the Resistance

USDCHF pair provided new positive trades to test the bearish channel’s resistance, noticing that stochastic shows new negative signals now, waiting to motivate the price to resume the main bearish trend, which its targets begin at 0.9100 and extend to 0.9100.

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We remind you that breaching 0.9230 will push the price to start bullish correction that its targets begin by testing 0.9335 areas. The expected trading range for today is between 0.9140 support and 0.9275 resistance.​

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SOLIDECN

Experienced member
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ETHUSD - Murray analysis

Since the beginning of this year, the ETHUSD pair has been growing within the framework of a general market uptrend: last week, for the first time since September, the quotes rose to the area of 1678.7, but now they have lost some of the positions they won, dropping to the level of 1625 (Murray level [5/8]).

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The key for the "bulls" is currently the level of 1650 (Fibo retracement 23.6%), consolidation above it will give the prospect of further growth to the levels of 1750 (Murray level [6/8]) and 1875 (Murray level [7/8]). In general, the upward trend in the market remains, as evidenced by the upward reversal of the Bollinger Bands and the increase in the MACD histogram in the positive zone. The Stochastic's exit from the overbought zone does not exclude a corrective decline, but its potential is seen as limited by the 1500 mark (Murray level [4/8], the middle line of the Bollinger Bands). If the price consolidates below this level, the decline will be able to continue to the area of 1375 (Murray level [3/8]) and 1250 (Murray level [2/8]), but so far this scenario seems less likely.

Resistance levels: 1650, 1750, 1875 | Support levels: 1500, 1375, 1250​

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SOLIDECN

Experienced member

Soy Technical Analysis​

Bearish Scenario:
Soyabeans is trading in the upward channel, noting the AO indicator shows negative signals waiting to motivate the bears to confrim the break of the main bullish trend 1477.45 support (Fibo retracement 38.2) which extends to 1465.42 - 1456.05 (Fibo retracement 50).

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Bullish Scenario:
We see a hammer candle in 12 hours chart which can indicate trend reversal. Breaching MA 50 would push the price to continue the bullish trend that its targets begin by testing 1511.8 - 1520.16.​
 

SOLIDECN

Experienced member
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GBPJPY Provides Sideways Trades

The GBPJPY pair continued to provide sideways trades to keep its stability within the bearish track that depends on the stability of the major resistance at 163.40, in addition to the continuous barrier formed at 162.10.

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Note that stochastic reach to the overbought areas hint getting rid of the positive pressures, to increase the chances of gathering the required negative momentum to provide new negative trades and wait to reach 158.60 followed by 157.10 levels soon. The expected trading range for today is between 161.80 and 159.25.​

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SOLIDECN

Experienced member
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XRPUSD - Current trend

The XRPUSD pair has been growing within the general market trend since the beginning of this month, and this week has reached 0.4290 for the first time since November.

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Currently, the quotes have corrected to the 0.4000 area, but the current short-term uptrend will be reversed only after the breakdown of the middle line of Bollinger bands in the 0.3780 area, and then the asset will be able to return to 0.3418 (Murrey level [6/8]) and 0.3174 (Murrey level [5/8]). The key "bullish" level is the resistance zone 0.4330–0.4395 (Fibonacci correction 23.6%, Murrey level [+2/8]), the breakout of which allows growth to 0.4750 and 0.5219 (Fibonacci correction 38.2%).

Resistance levels: 0.4395, 0.4750, 0.5219 | Support levels: 0.3780, 0.3418, 0.3174​

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SOLIDECN

Experienced member
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USDCHF Exits the Bearish Channel

The USDCHF pair traded with strong positivity yesterday to breach the bearish channel’s resistance and settles above it, to head towards building expected correctional bullish wave in the upcoming sessions, targeting 0.9335 areas initially.

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Therefore, the bullish bias will be suggested for today, taking into consideration that breaking 0.9195 will stop the expected rise and press on the price to resume the main bearish trend again. The expected trading range for today is between 0.9160 support and 0.9300 resistance.​
 

SOLIDECN

Experienced member
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GBPCAD forms new bullish channel​

The GBPCAD pair formed minor bullish wave recently as appears on the chart, to support the chances of resuming the bullish attack, as the continuous stability of 1.6420 support line and stochastic attempt to provide the positive momentum allow us to expect targeting 1.6745 level soon, while surpassing it will increase the chances of providing strong pressures on 1.6930 barrier, to form the next main target for the bullish trades.
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The expected trading range for today is between 1.6550 and 1.6745.​
 

SOLIDECN

Experienced member
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USDCAD - Growth is possible.​

On the daily chart, the upward fifth wave of the higher level 5 develops, within which the wave (3) of 5 forms. Now, the wave 5 of (3) is forming, within which the first wave of the lower level i of 5 has formed, a local correction has ended as the wave ii of 5, and the wave iii of 5 is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the USDCAD pair will grow to the area of 1.3978 – 1.4500. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.3315.

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SOLIDECN

Experienced member
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USDCHF - Growth is possible.​

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 develops, within which the upward first wave (1) of 3 formed, and a downward correction ended as the second wave (2) of 3. Now, the wave C of (2) has ended, and the development of the upward wave (3) of 3 has started, within which the first wave of the lower level 1 of (3) is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the USDCHF pair will grow to the area of 0.9600–0.9900. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.9081.

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SOLIDECN

Experienced member
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Dow Jones - The US stock market is preparing to continue its growth

Tesla Inc., an electric car maker, released financial results yesterday, with fourth-quarter revenue of 24.32 billion dollars, lower than forecast of 24.68 billion dollars, and with earnings per share of 1.19 dollars, higher than the previous quarter's figure of 1.05 dollars. In turn, technology giant IBM Corp. posted revenue of 16.70 billion dollars against a forecast of 16.13 billion dollars and earnings per share of 3.60 dollars, well above 1.81 dollars a quarter earlier.

Among the negative publications, one can single out yesterday's report of the manufacturer of aviation, space and military equipment, Boeing Co., whose quarterly revenue amounted to 19.98 billion dollars, an increase of 35.0% compared to the previous quarter. The company's recovery still failed to turn it into profit, with a loss per share of 1.75 dollars after -6.18 dollars per share in the previous quarter.

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On the daily chart, the index quotes continue corrective dynamics, again trying to overcome the channel's resistance line at 34160, and the technical indicators are in a state of uncertainty.

Support levels: 33300, 32500 | Resistance levels: 34160, 35300​
 
 
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