Drop into a support zone so the attached setup is attractive but its buying right into previuos support so I'm leaning towards skipping it, would rather play the continuation and go short on a break lower.
Too busy to update yesterday. The trade I mentioned in the above post made it to PT1 but probably would've been a B/E attempt.
I had two others, both attached. First was a long on E/U which was stopped for B/E (and would've been a full loss otherwise). Second was a short on G/U which was stopped for B/E and also would've been a full loss...so...not too unhappy with yesterday.
I do feel like I missed a bit of a sitter with the last G/U chart attached, getting in on a larger swing via a 1-2-3.
Managed to catch the move in cable today. It *looks* like a great trade as I should make at least 2R on it but in all honesty I should've pulled the plug on it sooner, but I had a 'hunch' (as much as I hate them) that we would be going higher so gave it a lot more room than I normally would.
I took half off for 0.6R at the first green line.
A quarter off at the second green line for 0.86R.
And took off a tenth of the position as we tested previous highs at the third green line.
*Grabs calculator* that leaves 15% of my original position on and I'm holding onto that looking for a sustained break above 1.55.
There is a case to be made for the stop-and-reverse off a 1-2-3 near the highs but I was busy with work stuff at the time and missed it.
Looks like some corrective price action in E/U over the past 4 hours or so. Tempting to set a sell stop beneath the low but we have ECB rate decisions in 5 mins and more importantly a press conference from Draghi in 45 mins, so sitting on the sidelines for now.
ECB news conference quickly stopped my G/U long out at breakeven, +2R for the trade, feel like I'm not going to be making enough on winners so something to look into.
I did decide to trade the corrective price action on E/U which I noted above (post 35) but only in 25% of my normal size as it was over a big news event. I had a sell stop below the low which got slipped 3 pips, a small 5 pip stop, took half off to cover my risk (a bit wussy in hindsight), took 25% off at the first green line and the last 25% off at the second, as you can see I left quite a bit on the table but at the time it felt right.
Return on the trade was in the vicinity of 7R but as it was a quarter of my normal size I'm counting it as 1.75R.
I think Elliot Wave theory has some application when the wave count and price action is blindingly obvious. My knowledge is not what it should be but I'm in the process of learning.
I think the last 24 hours of GBP/USD price action fits quite well. 3 Waves down yesterday each corrected by small rally (5 waves in total), and then overnight and this morning a correction fitting the sideways A-B-C digging into resistance template, similar to that which preceded the sell-off in E/U which I caught yesterday.
Would like to short via a 1-2-3 at the high of the channel or if given a nice continuation play at the lows.
Couple of attempts at cable today, first attempt was for breakeven (first chart).
Second attempt was a great entry but I pulled the plug a bit early and it sailed off without me, -.5R.
Third attempt was another quarter size trade on a break of the low, took half off to cover risk at 1R and took the rest off at 3x my original risk, so roughly 3.5R on the trade although as only a quarter of the size its actually 0.865R
E/U displayed similar corrective price action and I managed to catch the top of the channel. Took half off for slightly better than .5R, quarter off for 3R, last quarter off for 5R, net return was 2.8R.
Interesting to note the ending diagonal as higlighted on my last chart, I would trade the reversal if presented but its Friday night.
If I'd traded the two smaller trades in full size average win would be 2.85R, and technically it is 2.85R as it's return per unit of risk (R), but I would rather think in terms of how much I'd normally risk on a trade with is 1% of my account.
Very happy with these stats, I'm net up 6R and average winners are 3x that of average losers with essentially a 50:50 hit-rate (ignoring breakevens).
The bulk of returns did come from some large moves in the last few days but I don't feel like I got lucky as I called the context in advance (corrective price action) and was patient waiting for good entries at good levels. This style of trading will tend to rely on a smaller amount of large wins so it's nothing to worry about.
Will be concentrating on reducing the average loss by being willing get out sooner, and increasing the average win by looking to take off my first half at better than 1R.
I'm toying with the idea of sizing up my trades off swings as I have been (so e.g. if 1R = £100 and I need a 20 pip stop that will be £5 pp) BUT using a standard stop size of maybe 5-8 pips above my entry level. Trades should be going my way asap so this is an interesting way to cut those that don't. I think size of spread is pretty prohibitive for this though.
One trade yesterday and perhaps chasing it a bit. I'm most happy trading reversals as you (hopefully) are almost always getting in at extremes and its very obvious when you're wrong.
Continuations, particularly buys for some reason (which doesn't make any sense in FX!), I sometimes find difficult to commit to. Maybe I should limit any continuation trades to buying/selling into clean space, instead of into the middle of a range like the trade I have attached.
I only risked half my normal size on it for that reason, and I took a -.2 of my normal 'R' loss on it, so I'm quite happy with how I traded it. This is the kind of trade I need to be quick to cut if it doesn't run my way asap and that's exactly what I did.
Adjusting the amount I want to risk to suit each trade was not part of the original plan and, in hindsight, in the 3 or 4 examples where I've trimmed my risk a bit in the past couple of weeks actually trading my full size would've increased my returns dramatically. However, I have a long way to go and I'm happy to stay within my comfort zone whilst keeping an eye on how any adjustments I make would affect returns.
FOMC this evening so more than likely to be a day of sitting on hands and preserving capital.