Recent content by stutch

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    Futures and Spread instrument mapping

    Hi, I don't know much about futures, can anyone tell me what is the equivalent instrument on a futures trading platform to FTSE ( UK 100 Rolling daily) and similarly the DAX. These are listed on Tradefair which I think is a white label for Capital Spreads. I looked at the Interactive Brokers...
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    How to backtest forex?

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    Source of Top Quality FX data?

    Oanda data for free (nearly)
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    Probability based trading

    If you look at the long term, taking long positions is profitable but you may have a severe draw down. If you only took short positions, that is profitable too. The shorts are more often profitable when the longs are losses and vice versa. It combines two winning systems to reduce draw down. It...
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    Probability based trading

    One point I forgot to add is that not all positions are 50/50 positions. As a scalping strategy if your limits are closer to your opening position and your stops a further away you move the odds in your favour. This is contrary to what a lot of books say so let me prove it. Take a limit order...
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    Probability based trading

    I apologise for not being explicit in my articles but I do not want anyone to treat what I say as advice or guidance on trading. I see this as the start of some research work and I don't really want to publish what I am doing at this stage or my work becomes worthless. My original question was...
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    Probability based trading

    Points noted. To start answering your question : I do not know what the market will do next. If I do not know what it does next then my entry point is not important. The entry point for the graphs is the open price on a 10 minute interval, but I could choose any point that exists within that...
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    Probability based trading

    Thanks to JohnnyT for comments and assitance. I can confirm that the dukascopy EUR/USD data and the EURGLOBEX futures data (bid) has a correlation of 0.98 for a sample size of 1918 elements. This means it is 'almost' the same or there is a very close correlation of open prices of the 10...
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    Probability based trading

    Unfortunately time is crucial to this. Extending the time frame turns this to mush. Interestingly though in the longer time frame there are some huge gains to be made, with huge risk and no way of 'predicting' the outcome. This lead to the reasoning behind some of the discrepancies you see...
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    Probability based trading

    Hi, I wondered if anyone traded blind based on probability. I have come across an anomoly based on the probability densitiy funcitons of currencies and to put it simply I don't know how to trade it. A spread (bid/ask) of greater than 1.3 kills it dead, it becomes a losing system. I normally...
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    Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns

    I have both "Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns" and "Trading Classic Chart Patterns" by Bulkowski. I have found them both useful. He is the only guy I have seen who provides a statistical significance in the construction of the chart. If I was going to buy just one of these books I would go for...
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    Forex blackbox

    Hi, I am happy to take advice and guidance on where this thread should be but I think the guys in here can probably answer my questions. I'm not sure if its a data feed/software or broker question. I'm working on an automated blackbox approach to forex . My back testing is nearing completion...
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    US Trading from UK - advice please

    US Trading from UK - advise please Please can anyone advise me about the best process to use to trade US Options from the UK. I was thinking about using OptionsXpress, is there any advantage to using a US bank account ? Is a US bank account easy to open from the UK. Are there any tax...
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    Crest Stock/Borrow/Loan

    I noticed on the Crest tab of www.advfn.com a steady increase as the shorts went on AAL in March, the price dropped and the crest loans disappeared. Unforunately the Crest data is delayed by days. Does anyone know where I can see up to date crest data ? Thanks.
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    IT careers and certification

    I work in IT and have had 12 years as a contractor, and about 5 years permie. I have conducted technical interviews for a large number of people for my current employer. I look at CV's and try to filter out what I require from the buzz words in the experience - e.g. Oracle/SQL/UNIX etc. Then I...
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