Recent content by simcom

I had the same problem - cost me weeks of wasted time and dashed my hopes of billions! :o I think the data I had the issue with was Yahoo EOD Dow 30. Only when somebody on here told me about it did I realise why the results seemed so amazing.

In a somewhat perverse way, I'm actually slightly pleased whenever I have a difficult drawdown to cope with. Because the strategy I trade is highly simplistic, I often have nagging doubts about whether it could really work (even though I have spent thousands of hours proving to myself that it...

In my research into expectancy/expectation, I have come across multiple ways of calculating a figure. The two methods that stand out as the most common are as follows: Expectancy = (Probability of Win * Average Win) - (Probability of Loss * Average Loss) Expectancy = (1 + Average Won/Average...

A useful resource for calculating the probability of a losing streak over a particular number of trades: http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~churvich/Undergrad/Handouts4/13-Streak.pdf

Although it's not related to your specific problem, I found this comparison of log-in times from different browsers interesting: Browsers Never realised there was such a massive difference!

I've been trialling something similar as an experiment, for the past 18 months. Uses tight stops on IG Index (just above their minimum stop distance). So far, results have been surprisingly consistent with those from historical testing. Risking 0.5% per trade, made about 150% over the course of...

Thanks for replying so quickly - that's a great help.

Does anybody know if it is possible to get TS (or another decent program) to place trades only at particular times? I would want to trade at the same time each day, with the parameters of the trade (direction, stop etc.) being determined by other signals which should be fairly easy to program...

Or a few against you to make a crippling loss... :(

Fair enough - to be honest I don't really have much more information. I guess the question I am asking is more general, i.e. 'Would I trade a strategy that has been consistently profitable over the last ten years considering it is based upon random entries at a certain time of day?' Realised...

I realise that the discussions of tight stops and random entries have been nearly done to death elsewhere on these forums recently, so my intention is not to start another one of these. This is more of a question for the sake of personal interest. I have had somebody tell me about a method...

Be patient, hold your horses! I'm sure it will all come in good time :thumbsup:

Good advice. When we arrived back in the UK from Australia a few years ago we did a similar thing to the people you describe. Went to look at some of my parents' and grandparents' old houses. Even though we were only stopped outside for about 30 seconds, it was enough to get the net curtains...

It was around one trade per day. I know that that should be enough, but I suppose I don't want to fall into the trap of thinking I'm invincible ;)

My strategy (mechanical) uses ATR (Average True Range). It determines the stop loss size in points that is equivalent to a certain percentage of the 14-day ATR. I used to use profit targets but found that in the longer-run it was better without them. This varies widely depending on the strategy...