Recent content by RedGreenBen

I think I asked a similar Q here a couple of years ago. My answer now (older but only possibly wiser) is to relax about the 'big picture' and just look at the charts... there are clear patterns to exploit. For some reason it's tempting to look for reasons not to do it. (and not trading 'market...

England's best player (the rain) looks like he will play in the next test as well. If we have another great English summer (i.e. wet) then we might just scrape a draw out of the series. The trouble with Lords is that we'll drop Monty for a seamer and lose our best batsman :)

Heavy churn rate to consider as well. See how good we are at not giving a straight answer?! Ben

Lots of interesting stuff on this topic in Stuart Sutherland's "Irrationality", Irrationality: Stuart Sutherland: Amazon.co.uk: Books This also happens to be 'the best book about trading that isn't about trading'. Ben

To get back to the original question (even if the diversion has been fun)... I doubted myself a lot more in a 'real job'. With trading you have a nice simple measure that tells you if you are any good or not. Before trading I did jobs that I was crap at, yet got promoted through luck and...

I think I'm one of those BUT I've found it a hindrance rather than a help when it comes to trading (although basic numeracy is required). Ben

I wouldn't worry about what it is called. You need to see if this approach has 'value'. Test the tweaked parameters against the preceeding ones and see if it improves your results. I think I know the answer, but this approach should give you useful information. Ben

They *may* be the same (it's too late in the day for me to do the maths) but the first version is definitely correct and the second may be, although the brackets might be a bit muddled. Ben

I think they are called Fibonacci levels :)

It's free-to-air on Sky but not Freeview. You aren't missing anything useful though. I recommend 'Countdown' followed by 'Deal or No Deal' on Channel 4 as a much better background to day-trading :) More constructively, ransquawk.com, if you really must. Ben

I agree BUT try creating a random time series in Excel (price at t+1= price at t +/- a random amount) and plot it. You will be amazed (or perhaps I am easily impressed) by the S/R, trends etc that you will see. Ben

I tried the quantitative route and much to my disgust(!) realised that a lot of it is intuition that can only be gained from thousands of hours watching price. Having said that, I am amazed that people don't do just a very basic analysis like categorising trades by type (e.g. with or against a...

I'm not an expert on this, but didn't want you to go answer-less. Tighter stops/target increases the probability of both being hit, but which way is any bias?! So I think you need to test it and find out with your particular system which produces the more favourable long-term outcome. Ben

I don't know how they quantify them either, you probably have to get a load of PhDs in one room and pay them a lot of money to produce data with wide error bars :-) I do though think that 'probability' (for want of a word that covers all these concepts) is probably the key idea to get a grip of...

If it is then consistently profitable trading is impossible. If you can see the chart in terms of probabilities (isn't that what resistance is... an area above which probability decreases?) then you are doing OK.