Recent content by nnash

When people use the word "gambling" in the pejorative sense they mean placing a bet with negative expectation. Most traders are gambling in that sense, using systems that are no better than the fool at the horse track who thinks he also has a system based on ideas from the 1970s. On the flip...

"The first $100k is a real bitch" --Charlie Munger That Munger quote sums up a ton to me although with inflation it should be closer to $200k now. Of course, there is a base living expense that decreases as a % of your capital/gains as your capital increases. That is why the idea of starting...

The word "killer" in the title and the table of contents to Trading Evolved makes it look pretty suspect to me. Looks like just recreating the same useless algorithms from retail trading platforms in python. I just picked up Mastering Python for Finance second edition by James Ma Weiming for 10...

What improved my psychology was eventually finding systems and edges that actually work. Before then I was trading based on things that didn't work and blaming it on "psychology" for not working. Yes, at the highest level golf is a game of psychology too. If you have barely ever went to a...

I have read hundreds of trading and finance books the last 20 years. If I started over I would go with: The Darkside Of Valuation and Investment Valuation by Damodaran Volatility Trading by Sinclair. Advances In Financial Machine Learning by DePrado Market Microstructure in Practice by...

All you need to worry about is getting a network adapter that has no problems with ubuntu. KDE Neon with Plasma is just a vastly superior version of Windows that is easier to use than Windows 10. Windows 10 is just so ridiculously bad. Basically any modern PC hardware is blindingly fast when it...

I have a little model for NFL games this season but it doesn't give many signals over a season in a backtest. Being so it doesn't generates enough samples to really know if it has any kind of edge even though I can think of reasons it could. I am going to enjoy betting meaningless amounts with...

Haha Treatise on Probability is so brutal. I have really never been able to get anywhere in it and I love Keynes mind from what I have been able to digest. Schumpeter is in the same group with Knight to me. Tough but not completely impenetrable. I just think there is something about men of...

I highly recommend picking up the book Risk Uncertainty and Profit by Frank Knight. Book is almost a hundred years old now and far more depth than any modern trading related book on risk.

I don't think the Democratic party is capable of selecting an opponent than can beat Trump. All you have to do is pick a centrist and you win a land slide without trying. Instead the party is hell bent on picking the most radical candidate it can, as if twitter is real life and is actually...

In the words of Marcos Lopez de Prado most financial discoveries are false. Most strategies don't work but most retail traders because of all kinds of psychological bias believe their system must work. Even the Buddha is going to lose money if he was trading a losing strategy. You need to...

If you are competent at your job you should always take the higher salary from another company. You basically then get a free call option on the previous employer wanting you back at an even higher salary. In the wise words of Charlie Munger "the first $100k is a real bitch". Get to $100k...

Fear of missing out just means you don't have enough years under your belt yet. I would have a hard time enumerating all the trades I have missed out on in my life now. Who cares though, there will be more than enough trades to take now and in the future.

Like QE, tether printing is not working as well the next time around. If you look at the current market cap we have had 1 billion added to tether just since May. It is not exactly tough to understand the motives to liquidate BTC about $11k if you have a large position. The higher it goes the...

Not sure how you come to this conclusion. 80% of the volume in the US and 70% of volume world wide is algorithmic. In general for anything: "Algorithms beat individuals about half the time and they match individuals about half time. There are very few examples of people outperforming...