Recent content by AriaS

I disagree. We can use averages for the purpose of this calculation. Of course, it will be approximation, same as all the trading always is. Btw, ChatGPT agreed ;)

Please, paste my previous reply to the language model that you are using. We are not looking for a break-even rate of the entire strategy. We are looking for the probability of any given random trade to become a winning trade (you can tell this to the language model, and it will understand its...

It should be subtracted, and here is why: spread shifts our entry against us, therefore TP is harder to reach. The probability to reach it with spread=0 should be higher, than with spread>0. Let's check two examples that both have SL=TP=10 pips. The 1st has no spread and the 2nd has spread=1...

Random win probability I often like to calculate the random win probability of my strategies to see whether it's luck or an edge: First, we need to calculate the probability of a trade to become a winner. Here's the formula: (average loss - average spread) / (avrg loss + avrg win) My strategy...

Just tools that provide different perspectives of the market, and sometimes, when lots of people use them, they can work as a self-fulfilling prophecy.

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Update: I enlarged the investment to 4.4K . Every component is in profit, except XWU

Update: I constantly keep working on the strategy and improving it. The main latest development is 2 new back testing algorithms. One is testing 3 months back and the other one also takes into account around 3 problematic time segments in the past. Need 3.2% this month for the first 30k allocation

I started it on a live account (Darwinex) in May. It's slow in the meantime. As you can see, the swaps "ate" half the profit. I guess it's not a good idea to run it through CFD. I think I need to somehow connect it to my IBKR account. But currently I am more concentrated on my forex strategy.

Update - 3 months: +7.4% Drawdown: Darwinex shows 4.78%, Myfxbook - 2.89%. I carefully checked the equity curve and Darwinex is the correct here. Traded 26 pairs. Won 69 trades out of 80 Currently 6 open trades in loss: -2.9%. Four of them are open for a long time now. The loss is stable and...

I only have the live one. Do you mean that I should share the screen pics here? I can, but anyone can simply input these Darwins into the Darwin backtesting tool and see what PnL this portfolio would produce.

https://www.darwinex.com/darwin/DFBH https://www.darwinex.com/darwin/XWU https://www.darwinex.com/darwin/WISI https://www.darwinex.com/darwin/TXRT https://www.darwinex.com/darwin/QBG https://www.darwinex.com/darwin/HSYF 40% in XWU and WISI.

This darwin seems to be in line with my own rules of success and it's really tempting to invest in it. On the other hand, the trader behind it has 25 Darwins and 1/3 of them are losers. They don't seem to be a part of his learning curve because they all started in around 2022. What are your...

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