What has worked for me--Wolfe Waves

Yes OK why

........

Clam61, great thread on FF. Made notes and will digest over the weekend and watch next week. I trade GBPUSD exclusively at the moment and often see the 5-0 harmonic set up, which ties in with WWs by the looks of it, well perhaps loosely, but the harmony, cleaness in moves etc all seem to add weight to better WW entries.

Looking forward to seeing more of your posts.

Ive studied the wolfewave and can say that they rarely perform in todays markets. Most natural setups are manipulated beyond recognition for textbook wolfewave traders to take advantage of the formation, and the result is generally a greater loss on behalf of the trader. It takes a long time to fully master wolfewave theory, and taken that the wolfewave rarely forms in todays markets is it worth the time and effort? wolfewaves were tradeable during the 80's and 90's but these days it is far to common knowledge I'm afraid to say... All common knowledge becomes the norm, and when something within the market becomes the norm, it is no longer tradeable in terms of extracting regular profit.

You would be better off studying some well known technical analysis books, and focus upon price action as it takes long enough to learn what is required to become profitable already, so one should really focus upon the faster route to success, which in my opinion is without doubt price action and technical indicators.

...Clam and others certainly seem to be trading regular, profitable setups across a range of timeframes (5min thru daily) on several fx crosses at the moment, as per his pics above. I've looked into WWs before and found it didn't suit at that time, but from Clam's (and others) input on forexfactory, my interest has been rekindled. It is precisely the focus on price action/patterns that attracted me to the method in the first place, but I agree that indicators have their place too.

My belief is, that having a comprehensive range of trading strategies/methods/systems is one of the keys to long term trading success. Wolf wave patterns exist in today's market and are there to trade alongside 100's of other setups. I wouldn't rely on WW alone, or indeed any other single route.

Ofcourse ChowClown you are entirely correct as one must use all of the tools all of the time, however as I have already mentioned the fake-outs are just as common as the real thing and thus in my experience this is the systems downfall, best of luck.

clam61 said:

about relying on the wolfe wave alone. honestly..you can. bill wolfe and his son have made a living (and a good one at that) by doing this only. this is also my plan

you dont need to trade every single type of move. you really don't. often people think that--they want to be able to pick tops and bottoms and ride trends etc. you really dont. what you need to do is to master one concept and get your win percentage ridiculously high with that.

to make money, you simply begin taking bigger positions...more and more slowly.

theoretically, imagine if you could get your win percentage to 100%, but you could only trade once a year. how much would your position be?

Click to expand...

I'm interested in learning more about this.

Can you suggest a good source of information for learning more about Wolfe Waves aside from having to cough up $3k for the original manual?

LOL looks like some subscribers are already taking the bait...

Clam61, I never said wolfewaves dont occur, I said that there are just as many fake-out wolfewaves in todays market because they are common knowledge. For every wave you win with, there will be another set-up that goes against you, and thus you are where you began. Your very naive to think that you can trade profitably long-term with wolfewaves alone in todays market climate. Why dont you produce some charts to show all the failed 1-2-3 wolfewave set-ups that have appeared in recent years ?

"beware the information you find on investopedia, voodootrader, and linda radshke's book about wolfe waves is plain WRONG. not slightly wrong..but absolutely wrong"....

.....and your the only guy who knows the truth and is willing to give the truth to everyone? Apologies for my cynicism, however Ive been around this game since the 80's, and to suggest on the forum that wolfewaves are some kind of holy grail is nothing short of laughable. In todays market the big boys use wolfewave set-ups to create fake waves, then when all the newbies see a textbook set-up that they believe is going to be profitable they pile in and invariably lose, because thats the whole idea. Just to show how stupid this is, why do you think there is still a market to trade ? If the wolfewave produced profits every 1-2-3 set-up that formed time and time again, do you not think it would have destroyed the market by now ? The very reason why it hasn't destroyed the market is because there as many fake 1-2-3's as genuine.

If you are unable to discern why I used the word "at-least" taking into consideration the context of this being Bill's proprietary technique being placed on a public forum, I assume without consent, then what more can I say ? Bill is somebody I have a lot of respect for, even if I dont think the waves are as tradeable today as they once were, but that is my opinion and I'm entitled to that. If you are doing well and can make money then thats great news for you.

With regards to our spirited debate ? Perhaps you may delineate precisely what it is that I'm meant to be replying too ?

You do seem to be quite confrontational, I observe rather heated discussion on the other forum that you linked to in the opening post, however that is not going to stop me from listening to what it is you have to say. I made some perfectly viable statements in previous posts and it appears you took a defensive position from the outset when returning my input. You ought to be aware that people are going to apply a critical analysis of any technique that is offered as a potential solution to trading profitably.

Wolfe Wave= A,B,C Correction

My personal opinion is that 'Wolfe Wave' is continuation pattern and is equal to A,B,C correction Thats way is bad idea to give $3000 to get 'Wolfe Wave' manual :!: :!: :!:
Here is a 1 min chart of EUR/USD from friday You can see 1,2,3,4,5 followed by A,B,C correction and trend continuation

clam61 said:

sorry, but according to wolfe wave rules, that is not a wolfe wave.

wolfe waves are actually a specific form of diagonal triangles. according to EW theory diagonal triangles are found in wave 5 and C waves...

however i am not an EW expert so I cant tell you what wave these wolfe waves are found in

Click to expand...

Wolfe Wave or not Walfe Wave That is the ??????????????? :cheesy:

dont know if anybody is interested, but see attached file (it has been sitting on my "to read list" for some time). if you are an expert on this pattern, please advice if article is worth studying not only for me but for those interested in expanding their arsenal :cheesy:

Clam, was this one of the articles you referred to as being inaccurate?

jacinto said:

please advice if article is worth studying not only for me but for those interested in expanding their arsenal :cheesy:

Click to expand...

well, guess the above is answered whith the post below......

should read every word people write

clam61 said:

* beware the information you find on investopedia, voodootrader, and linda radshke's book about wolfe waves is plain WRONG. not slightly wrong..but absolutely wrong.

Click to expand...

assume this other file is the investopedia one, right?

clam61 said:

wolfe waves are actually a specific form of diagonal triangles. according to EW theory diagonal triangles are found in wave 5 and C waves...

Click to expand...

sounds logical to me
i dont know WW but i have seen them around and the moves can be dynamic if the trend is changing and that would mos tlikely happen at the end of 5th wave or so called C leg corrections
i would be interested to see some examples apparently the first post has some but i cant seem to see them

Basically all a Wolf wave is. 3 lower lows in a wave form or 3 higher highs in a wave form.

Buy the third low and sell the third high. you can add fancy lines to it if you want to make it look pretty.

Mr Wolf talks rubbish when he says everyone draws them wrong. he dont have the answers if he did he would not need to sell his method.

Bottom line is, its an over bought and over sold method

Thanks clam61
appreciate the charts

clam61 said:

you;ve alreayd seen waves on M1 to H4 waves, here is a monthly for you.

Click to expand...

naturally i dont know the rules to what constitutes a wolfwave
but the examples appear to be a contraction phase of a directional move
or simply put 3 drives to a high or to a low
which can masquerade as a bull or bear flag but nonetheless interesting pattern

clam61 said:

hi andycan

although there are three points one one side, it is not like a three drives pattern. three drives patterns typically have to have certain fib ratios or be equal to each other, which in case it becomes a slanted triple top.

i think investopedia describes it as a three drives pattern..but that is incorrect.

a wolfe wave, and this comes from teh manual itself, is a special form of a wedge. these "special" characteristics are what help you differentiate between a regular wedge that you see all the time that has a big failure rate, to a wolfe wave with a high success rate

Click to expand...

thanks for the explanation
though the 3 drive pattern does not have to be fib related but im sure the hardcore fib enthusiast can match it to a fib ratio
as a geometer the 3 drives tends to be a move that is running out of steam sometimes its a retracement (B leg)
sometimes its the A or the C leg or even a subdivisions of either.
but i do know many count it as an abcde maybe
or a 12345 what makes it interesting and accurate is the overbalance of time when making the move

clam61 said:

you know i used to be into elliot wave, etc. but after glenn neely, author of mastering elliot wave, states that forecasting for trading is useless and that he himself is only 50% accurate overall, i ended up moving away from elliot wave and concentrating on finding a solid technique

i tried moving average crossovers. even with good monye managemnt you can make $ even in a choppy environment. the problem wtih that is stop loss. you must wait for the moving average to go the other way before you exit. but then the question becomes...where is my stop loss going to be? and if i dont know my stop loss...how much capital am i risking?

Click to expand...

excellent i have not got a clue how the elliott boys count their waves
i dont use EW but i use my own form of wave theory i dont use fib like most do
i use geometry which is a completely different concept
but i must disagree with you on forcasting i do make road maps of where the market is going and my accuracy is more than 50% by far
but as i said they are guides.