Articles

For daytraders and scalpers looking for a quick trades or even a bit longer hold from 5 minutes to 1 hour, it's not easy to do. When day trading stocks, not knowing which way the market will go or the sentiment of the next few minutes is the fastest way to go broke. So watching the breadth such as the composites such as NASDAQ, DOW, or S&P 500 is a fundamental tool used to day trade effectively. Getting an idea what the immediate sentiment is crucial is seeing when and where the buyers or sellers are coming. Believe it or not, stocks are not islands and are not random. Participants move in and out for reasons others prices of stocks. There is always a correlation to some type of data, be it news or other related stocks. So finding a...

A look at what is happening in the markets at the moment and if this is just a correction or the start of a longer term down-trend. As I was about to write my alert, I happened to see the above quote and figured it was just too good not to put in the letter. In many ways, it explains the serious problems we are currently facing. Our illustrious leaders in the U.S. government (and I direct this squarely at both parties) have failed us in the biggest way. They have depreciated our currency; created incredible debt; run up mind boggling deficits; created a derivatives time bomb; got us into two wars that we can't possibly win (but they cost us dearly in money we can't afford to pay and precious lives); succeeded in making us the world's...

In the first part of this article Return of the Bear - Part One we looked at secular patterns the stock markets move in and the current state of the Bull Market. The Monetary Background I've always believed that the "rate-of-change" (ROC) of interest rates is more important than the actual level of interest rates. If levels are so important, how can one explain the extreme economic weakness in the 1930s when rates were in the basement compared to relative prosperity in the 1970s and 1980s when rates were in the stratosphere? caption: Chart 8. Vertical lines show when ROC crosses above +30, stocks become more risky. To prove this point, Chart 8 compares the annual change in the level of the Discount Rate to the S&P Composite. The...

Introduction - There are occurrences in the business cycle when the consensus of my proprietary primary trend indicators find themselves within the confines of the bearish camp. Unfortunately, now seems to be one of those occasions. The last time the technical, economic, and monetary indicators aligned themselves in such a negative way was the turn of the millennium. Then, as now, for the benefit of my subscribers, and their valued clients and investments, I feel duty-bound to publish a Special Report setting out the arguments for the impending scene about to unfold. In early 2000 it like the market was at, or close to, a secular or very long-term peak (albeit if not in absolute price terms, certainly in inflation-adjusted ones)...