Yellowlion's EURUSD Trading Journal

[yellowlion]

Good Morning All,

Well .4990 continues to exert it's influence on EURUSD as the pair prints 3 lower highs. If you think a symmetrical lower low will complete the pattern then .4775 may be what you're looking for. .4700/4680 could shake out the symmetry critters and is a nice cluster to get higher from. It's also a nice cluster to penetrate, break the uptrend, and set sights on .4470.

so the question is: does EURUSD quit at 1.50 and take it's ball and go home on an impulse lower? or does it gather it's wits, try unsuccessfully for 1.55 and fill a few of my orders along the way?

Who knows...?

 

[yellowlion]

quick +25 off .4857. normally don't post my scalps but I'm liking the long side.

 

[yellowlion]

11/17/09... I wouldn't be at all surprised if we got a horizontal triangle developing here that could take a couple good weeks to complete. That would be the harbinger for a final upward move.

I was kind of hoping for something larger till maybe early 2010 on the daily. This isn't it (obviously), but I do favor an upside resolution (which would also negate the larger triangle at this level.)

4hr

 

[yellowlion]

Happy Saturday All,

Research out of the annual Investment Decisions and Behavioral Finance conference at Harvard a couple week's ago:

"...answering a logic question - when phrased in terms of people - is easier than answering it when phrased in terms of cards or abstract objects."

This is an interesting piece of info in two ways:

1) A trader who learns to think in terms of the psychology and emotions that construct price patterns, and the psychology and emotions occurring at particular numbers and lines, would do just as well or better with less effort.

2) My locic is correct - Wall Street is full of ***holes.

 

[Tarhini_Trade]

hi, great journal...can you send a link to the article on the Harvard Investment Decisions and Behavioral Finance conference? Thanks

Happy Saturday All,

Research out of the annual Investment Decisions and Behavioral Finance conference at Harvard a couple week's ago:

"...answering a logic question - when phrased in terms of people - is easier than answering it when phrased in terms of cards or abstract objects."

This is an interesting piece of info in two ways:

1) A trader who learns to think in terms of the psychology and emotions that construct price patterns, and the psychology and emotions occurring at particular numbers and lines, would do just as well or better with less effort.

2) My locic is correct - Wall Street is full of ***holes.

 

[BrendanTTA]

Happy Saturday All,

Research out of the annual Investment Decisions and Behavioral Finance conference at Harvard a couple week's ago:

"...answering a logic question - when phrased in terms of people - is easier than answering it when phrased in terms of cards or abstract objects."

This is an interesting piece of info in two ways:

1) A trader who learns to think in terms of the psychology and emotions that construct price patterns, and the psychology and emotions occurring at particular numbers and lines, would do just as well or better with less effort.

2) My locic is correct - Wall Street is full of ***holes.

Totally agreed with point 1. I had spent years of research to construct a system that I can use to trade with less effort. For more information see here and find FX Programming Trading.

 

[yellowlion]

hi, great journal...can you send a link to the article on the Harvard Investment Decisions and Behavioral Finance conference? Thanks

hi atarh,

I don't believe the transcripts for that conference are available online. You can contact CFA and see if you can receive a hard copy.

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Someone please sign on with Brendan! He needs money for the holidays.

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I'm liking the long side to .5060 as this correction winds down. got a nibble in at .4827.

 

[yellowlion]

ewwww...another at 4902.

 

[yellowlion]

closed 02 entry at 28...single entry now adjusted to .4901....


closed trade at .4936 for +35. It looks to get higher but I need to get some sleep and I'm not comfortable holding this entry overnight....looks good on a pullback or down to .4875/46.

 

[yellowlion]

Good Morning All,

Well we did get higher and we are currently testing and finding resistance at the previous hourly high of .4998. Current high print is .4997.

two seperate analyses on the long side suggest at least a test of the .5063 high with .5200 still very much on the table going forward.

To the downside would be a continuation of the 1.50-1.48 range trade.

I favor a break to the upside but I'm sure the range won't go down without a fight. Also, as the US holiday draws near, volumes will decrease to holiday thin conditions making for easy manipulation of the market.

I always refer to the massive 2006 Thanksgiving Day breakout of the miserable summer range in EURUSD, which started the push to the all time high above 1.60.

So anything can happen as conditions thin out.

 

[BrendanTTA]

Good Morning All,

Well we did get higher and we are currently testing and finding resistance at the previous hourly high of .4998. Current high print is .4997.

two seperate analyses on the long side suggest at least a test of the .5063 high with .5200 still very much on the table going forward.

To the downside would be a continuation of the 1.50-1.48 range trade.

I favor a break to the upside but I'm sure the range won't go down without a fight. Also, as the US holiday draws near, volumes will decrease to holiday thin conditions making for easy manipulation of the market.

I always refer to the massive 2006 Thanksgiving Day breakout of the miserable summer range in EURUSD, which started the push to the all time high above 1.60.

So anything can happen as conditions thin out.

EURUSD has broken out of 1.50 - 1.48 range. Currently at 1.5057, on its way to 1.5200.

 

[yellowlion]

Hi All,

Had some orders in 1 short @ 60 and 1 short @ 82....woke up and closed both

the 82 at +25 and chickened out of the 60 for +1.

short -term looks a little overbought but the longer term hourlies still have room to the upside...no current strategies for the near term..... one for ..5200.

 

[yellowlion]

Good Morning All,

Happy Thanksgiving for all in the US.

Glad to see the trend traders making money yesterday. Some nice profits taken. Way to go!

Will be trading today but in limited capacity. I like EURUSD into .5200


In keeping with the attitude of gratitude idea,

Are you an experienced/successful trader with a genuine desire to help bring beginning and/or struggling traders forward in their development? Are you available for all or part of the trading day for real-time coaching and off-hours strategy development?

if so, I would like to chat with you.

Yellowlion Trading is seeking 1 experienced, active, & consistent Elliott/Fibonacci trader/analyst to join the trading group.

Must be thoroughly knowledgeable in all aspects of Elliott/Fibonacci methods with the ability to creatively think outside the box, have clear,concise chart analysis skills and the ability to convey strategies to others, have a positive trading and social mindset, and above all, have the ability and desire to be helpful to traders seeking to improve their skills.

Please contact me through my profile here or through the Yellowlion Trading website for a complete list of desired skills and further details.

Thanks Much.

 

[yellowlion]

Good Morning All,

I see pain around the board this morning and want to offer my condolences in empathy. The group was anticipating the correction in EURUSD off .5150 (actually 5143 was the top) and several members had a strategy of averaging longs into it; anticipating a profit target at 5200.

The strategy looked good with entries at 5040, 5011 and a 'hail mary' entry above the s/l level at 4955. We were using 25 pips below the 1hr 200 as our s/l.

You can calculate the # of pips we lost if you wish.

So we feel ya over here also.

The Group is still looking for an experienced Elloitt/Fibonacci trader to come on board for coaching and strategy sessions. See the post below if you are interested.

 

[yellowlion]

EURUSD..1 long @ 25...

 

[yellowlion]

wow what a deal.....

I lost the internet for 2.5 hours. I was watching my position on Bloomberg tank to .4845....I knew we were coming into fib support so I called my broker and got a nice fill long at .4830...got the internet back and I just closed the .4830 at .4875 +45 so now the position is

1 @ .4880 trade balance 0.00.

Jeez Louise...

 

[yellowlion]

wow what a deal.....

I lost the internet for 2.5 hours. I was watching my position on Bloomberg tank to .4845....I knew we were coming into fib support so I called my broker and got a nice fill long at .4830...got the internet back and I just closed the .4830 at .4875 +45 so now the position is

1 @ .4880 trade balance 0.00.

Jeez Louise...

closed the trade at .4904 +26.

Man I traded that like crrrrap on the exit side. But all in all it could be much worse...

 

[yellowlion]

Good Morning All,

Hope everyone in the US had a Happy Thanksgiving weekend. Once again, Thanksgiving proves to be a volatile time for the markets.

I saw some pain around this board and I know of one 30,000eur blow up. I'm sure there are more. I feel you guys because I've been there. I know the despair, and I also know that the despair is a stepping stone to a profitable trading career.

Blow-ups are part of the growth process. They happen to nearly everyone when they trade real money. Real and demo money are two entirely different trading environments. You can learn any successful method trading demo...but you can only master your trading self with real money. Do a thorough re-assessment. Look on the web for templates for a trading blow-up assessment. There used to be a good webinar on the CBOT website but I think that is gone. Take some time off. Then get back in the game as a new and improved trader.

Unless of course daddy or a taxpayer or two can bail you out, then you can just go back to the old game and never learn anything.

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Boy I had such a nice entry at .4830 but the initial .4925 entry got in my way and I traded lousy on the exit side. Still managed +26 pips out of it. Considering the day and what went on around the community, I'm more than satisfied.

I'm having a decent year so far up 160% from April going into December. My trading year starts on April 15, US Income Tax day. Pay taxes, take profit, and start with the new balance.

Still need an experienced Elliott/Fibonacci trader to help out in the Trading Group. contact me through the website in my profile for details.

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For Monday,

I was expecting that there would be some strategy developed for Dubai World over the weekend. Although that hasn't happened, it would appear that the community feels a little less tense here at the open. Indeed .4827 gave up 200+ pips for EURUSD on an impulsive move higher.

Although nerves have been rattled a bit, I do think .5200/5300 is achievable especially if there is some easing of tension in the UAE. I have some orders in and will keep the post fresh if I get any fills.

 

[yellowlion]

Good Morning All,

It would appear there has been something of a coup here at T2W. All the best to the new staff and moderators and congratulations to the award winning threads.

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Kind of chopping around in EURUSD. Looks like we could see the lower 4900's before getting higher but support could come in above .4975. (or maybe not...it just got taken out in the few minutes it took to write this post)

Instinctively I would think a second round of selling - not so much on the Dubai news but on the overall implications of the Dubai news - is probable, however the holiday season may temper any near-term efforts to correct the excess....

5200/5300 EURUSD remains on the table...

 

[yellowlion]

Good morning All,

Some crosscurrents emerging in the market and I'm not surprised that the banks are at the head of the turbulence. I had mentioned yesterday that instinctively, I would expect another round of selling not on the Dubai news itself, but on the uncertainty it created. I also suggested that the holiday shopping season 2009 may be too inconvenient a time to correct any excess in the system.

My guess is there will be a strong defense against any such correction at least until Santa flies. But the hint of a desire for one is certainly present.

EURUSD set up bearish off .5116 but has yet to acknowledge it. Staying supported just shy of 5100, a full correction could take price into the lower 50's with .5040 a logical target. 5200-5300 remains on my radar.

A couple scalps start the month +27. I'm not trading well right now so I'm gonna tread lightly.