Yellowlion's EURUSD Trading Journal

[yellowlion]

10/07/09 05:30 gmt

Oh Yeah!

Just a giant shout out to all the gold bugs sitting at all-time highs.​

Gus wrote:
usdjpy made a daily demark bar 13 y'day which is an indicator of bottom (sometimes, lol).

Hi Gus,

Counting DeMark's Sequential huh? That guy is amazing. Whenever I see or hear the name Tom DeMark it takes me back to when I was in school. I used to spend summers hiking the backcountry of Arizona and Utah. One trip through Sedona I carried "The New Science of Technical Analysis" with me and read it on the trail. I was really astounded by his pattern recognition abilities. His work is awesome.

Sometimes is a key concept in trading. We play probabilities that have a better than average chance of winning but sometimes they fail. Sometimes they fail in a succession of somtimeses.

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Well 12 pips is not much heat to take to put 50 in the bank.

Now What?

The S&P 500 came within ~4.50 of the monthly sma. Can they get it through? I bet they can but I also bet it's not sustainable.

For EURUSD, Asia completed a ZigZag off .4762 by truncating it at a short-term 200 sma but I think there's more room on the downside. At least a test of .4670 - .4650.

I'm in a watch and see mode right now. I will look for short entries if we get up near the highs and watch how EURUSD is behaving when it catches a bid. Essentially I'm still looking for shorting opportunities but I'm currently not interested down here.
I may even get long off support.

Yellow's Daily COMEX Gold

​

 

[yellowlion]

10/07/09 15:25 gmt

Hi All,

Hey Gus,

Here's what FX Wizard, the administrator over at the FX Street forum had to say about your USDJPY analysis.

I agree with it, it looks like Yen could be confirming a medium term bottom, hope the support which is testing right now will hold, as a breakout could bring back fear to the markets (remember last year when yen was going up every day).

Regards,
FXWizard

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Well EURUSD did test .4670 -.4650 as suggested in the London open post. The pattern looks good but so far no confirmation that that support level will hold. Price is testing the initial resistance zone right now .4695 -.4705. True confirmation doesn't come until .4740 so it's a tough pattern to trade low risk.

.4630 is the next support level if .4650 fails.

Counterintuitive 1 long at .4682 .

15:32 GMT Never mind.Closed it at .4684. I'll wait.

 

[gus]

Ok, I was going to put up a pretty chart, but have been thinking lately of our honeymoon last month and in the end one image won out.

If I did the attachment right, it's Miss Buckeye in the small harbor of Damariscove Island, Maine. She's a 1961 Lyman.

 

[yellowlion]

10/08/09 05:30 gmt

Good Morning All,

Gus, congratulations on your marriage and best wishes for a happy life together. Damariscove Island looks peaceful and quiet. What a terrific spot. I bet the Lyman had a good time too. Nice.

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Shoulda-woulda-coulda yesterday. Got long at .4682 and didn't like the way it looked so I jumped out b/e. I was correct in getting out but instead of keeping an eye on things I got busy with a boat project and missed the opportunity.

.4670 - .4650 did hold right at the lower bound with the US taking it 40 pips off support and Asia taking it 80 pips higher; 5 hours straight up to the current top at .4773.

.4800, .4832/46 and .4889 are potential targets. Beyond that , say hello to .4950/.5000.

First, however we probably will shed a bit to alleviate the overbought condition that currently exists. With enough enthusiasm however, there is room to get higher on a sideways consolidation or by staying overbought and just bidding it up.

I've resumed looking for shorting opportunities now that we're back up here. My thoughts remain that I do think US S&P 500 equities have the rocks to punch through the monthly sma and even make a fresh high but I don't think it's sustainable.

I just think we're doing a retest of the high on beginning of Q4 fund inflows.

COMEX Gold printed 1049.70 today and 1050.00 - 1053.00 should put a cap on things near-term.

US Benchmark rates are declining - now at 3.19.

October is here.


Wish me luck. :clover:

 

[gus]

And what a lovely month October is! 40 degrees right now, but going to 65 later.

Close the week here or higher be the highest since week of 8/22/08

Yellowlion, may the trading wind be at your back. BOL

 

[yellowlion]

10/08/09 15:45 gmt

Grrrr,

Put in a few orders early London and went to bed.

First filled nicely at .4797 and went 80 pips but my target was 100. Woke up and took 30. Grrrr.

Just looked for another discretionary entry and the market steps in front by 6 pips, just outside of my rule parameters so no entry. Grrrr.

Chopping around in volatile conditions. I'm gonna continue the boat project and let the orders take care of themselves. Gotta get the varnish on before the winter rains come.

No change in my outlook or analysis. Looking for short entries to 1.60.

 

[gus]

Oh a varnish project. It will look good next year. I love the smell of varnish, hope it's not the mast!

I'm short from 4791 - not sure how long I will stay with it. But my 240min chart said sell and daily made a TD Combo bar 9

 

[gus]

out .4768, but may jump back in..................

 

[yellowlion]

10/09/09 04:30 gmt

Good Morning All and Happy Friday,

It's 10/09/09 4:30 GMT - That's 10/08/09 21:30 PDT and I'm already in bed.

Have a very busy day tomorrow, this market has succeeded in frustrating the heck out of me, so I'm cancelling all orders and going to bed.

They want to step in front or reverse 20 pips beyond in clear air and I'm not gonna take IT ANYMORE!

Volumes are light and shenanigans are high so I'm gonna take my 4.2% earnings for the month and sit on my hands until some clarity comes back into my life.

Wish me luck. :clover:

and what do I get?

See you in the US morning.

 

[yellowlion]

10/09/09 15:45 gmt

Hi All,

Well it looks like the chop continues so I'm calling it quits for the week. Got a full day.

+3.0% for the week +4.2% for October.

And a great autumn weekend for everyone!

 

[JDTRADER]

I gave up on EUR/USD. I'm getting better results on GBP/USD.

Have a good weekend, a long one if your in the U.S

 

[gus]

Hi All,

Well it looks like the chop continues so I'm calling it quits for the week. Got a full day.

+3.0% for the week +4.2% for October.

And a great autumn weekend for everyone!

Sunday evening - I have one indicator saying Monday should be a down day for EUR/USD, but early trading does not seem to reflect that, but I will be trying to find a good short entry. Beautiful day here today.

 

[yellowlion]

10/12/09 06:15 gmt

I gave up on EUR/USD. I'm getting better results on GBP/USD.

You're not the first person who has recommended Cable as a better market. I don't know, I've come to be kinda intimate with the Euro and the pair treats me well.

Since it may be slow today with the US markets closed, permit me to tell a little story.

I cut my teeth starting in early 1997 trading stocks. My first account was with Suretrade and my first trade was Aeroflex 100 shares long. I made that trade from the school library and it netted $200 bucks in a couple days.

Arizona State University library was a wonderful resource. They had all the Technical Analysis literature from the early classics to Constance Brown and John Ehlers who were just coming into their own at the time. I read everything and hand copied a lot of the material into notebooks (I have a hand copy of Prechter/Frost.) 'spent a small fortune Xeroxing pages from the literature too.

I widened my list of stocks and started trading the Fidelity Select Sectors. I remember getting long the Gold Sector when it was 225.00, I wish I still had that trade on.

I made some money and I lost some money and experienced the rollercoaster ride of a novice trader. I was also double majoring in Jazz Piano and Mathematics at the time and I began to realize that this ever growing list of stocks and sectors was causing me to do little but chase my tail. I didn't have the time and I knew I was spread too thin. I needed to pare down.

During the height of .com in the late 90's I found myself trading Archer Daniels Midland almost exclusively. While .coms were going crazy, ADM traded in classic technical style in a leisurely manner. I pictured a bunch of farmers sitting around trading this thing. That's how it traded. It was relaxed, I understood it, and I made money.

During 2000 I fell in love with the QQQ's. Now I think they're the QQQQ's. The NASDAQ 100. I scalped them on price pattern alone. No indicators at all, just pattern recognition. I didn't start out like that but I realized after a while that I wasn't even looking at the indicators so I took 'em off. Like when I was balancing between my training wheels on my bike so I went home and took 'em off. It was a lot of fun and I held my own. That's all I traded. It was enough work just to do that.

in 2001-2002 a research firm held a stock/options trading competition. If I remember correctly it was six 2 month preliminary rounds where the top 1000 traders in each round qualified for the final round. So the final round was the top 6000 traders. I chose the QQQ options market for the final round and placed 9th in Arizona and 200th overall.

I learned what the masters told me over and over again. You only need one or two markets to earn a comfortable living. Pick one that you like and learn it, study it, and learn it some more until you know you are a part of the crowd. Every market has it's own participants, like ADM, or GBPUSD, or the QQQ's. Stay with your choice and you will get to know that crowd like they are your friends. And you will be rewarded for it. It will give you all the challenge, despair, and joy that you will ever want or need.

Sunday evening - I have one indicator saying Monday should be a down day for EUR/USD, but early trading does not seem to reflect that, but I will be trying to find a good short entry. Beautiful day here today.

May be quiet during the US session Gus, go out and get a pumpkin for the porch instead.

 

[yellowlion]

10/12/09 15:30 gmt

I forgot it's only the Bond markets that are closed on Columbus Day (how civilized they are). Oh well, I got some extra sleep and now I'm gonna go a shortin'. Let's see if I can get one.

 

[JDTRADER]

Nice read sir

 

[gus]

May be quiet during the US session Gus, go out and get a pumpkin for the porch instead.[/QUOTE]

Thanks for the suggestion.

Got it! Local farm with lots of pumpkins, maybe took us 30 minutes to pick the RIGHT ONE. Of course it's on the straw bale next to the scarecrow who's sitting in the Adirondack chair. All that's got to move when we get a load of firewood.

 

[yellowlion]

10/13/09 16:00 gmt

Good Morning All,

Lowest volume of the year for the S&P's on Friday and even lower still yesterday. I'm bored with these markets. It is indeed pumpkin picking time and I'm glad to see folks enjoying the season. We had our first rain last night. Winters coming.

The uptrend off the .4480 lows is still in place. What will happen when volume comes back in? My current attitude -> Who cares. For now the momentum is with the bulls and if I don't fall asleep at my desk to the lovely rain outside, I may play a short in the lower .49's.

Aye, the lower 49's...I remember back in '20...'three master she was...rrrr.

I'm making a coffee.

 

[yellowlion]

10/13/09 16:00 gmt

Good Morning All,

Lowest volume of the year for the S&P's on Friday and even lower still yesterday. I'm bored with these markets. It is indeed pumpkin picking time and I'm glad to see folks enjoying the season. We had our first rain of the season last night. Winters coming.

The uptrend off the .4480 low is still in place. What will happen when volume comes back in? My current attitude -> Who cares. For now the momentum is with the bulls and if I don't fall asleep at my desk to the lovely rain outside, I may play a short in the lower .49's.

Aye, the lower 49's...I remember back in '20...'three master she was...rrrr.

I'm making a coffee.

 

[yellowlion]

10/13/09 18:45 gmt

Going out on a limb a bit here but there could be some Central Bank activity starting on the long dollar side.

Short a nibble at .4826.

 

[AmateurTradersOnline]

What Up yellowlion Nice looking blog mate. I knicked a few pips on the EurUsd this morning. Will def keep and eye on your posts. Good effort with the posts though buddy keep it up.