At this time according to COT reports, public is very bullish. Commercials and large traders have dumped a lot of stock on to them and hence we should be expecting a serious downside move.
Forget COT reports -- even "Moodies" - why should ANYBODY take note of that totally RUBBISH Credit agency -- It got the economy HOPELESSLY WRONG with the Banks and the "Sub Prime Slime" credit which was 99% responsible for the 2008/2009 downturn.
(Yet amazingly whole Markets react on MOODY's statements -- if you go 100% OPPOSITE to what they say you probably would be better off).
Markets operate by "Fear and Greed" -- Large traders will have to buy stock back again -- Institutions etc can't fund Pension Funds etc simply by holding Cash in a Bank at a pathetic 0.25% A YEAR. They will HAVE to re-enter the market -- My guess is that they are trying to force down stocks to a low level so they can snap up huge DECENT portfolios for Cents in the Dollar.
I'm quite happy to hang on to their coatails when the Market rises.
Note also that there are a lot of new High Tech industries emerging -- Space exploration, Alternative Energy, CLEAN use of Coal and Gas, Robotics, Micro technology for use in Medecine etc etc as well as the older traditional ones that everybody always needs as I've said before -- Food, Cleaning, Current Energy.
Don't forget also Leisure industries -- people have a lot more spare time now and these seem to do reasonably well even in times of recession. Most people STILL in spite of everything want to keep their Summer holidays / travel arrangements.
The outlook for world economy is actually OK -- A different sort of economy but companies will still need to be a part of it. We can't keep an economy going by just telling the consumer to keep spending more on Credit Cards --eventually (as it did in 2008) these will be "Maxed out". We need to start MAKING things again, Growing more of our own food, improving management and exporting this technology to other less developed countries.
We can't expect the consumer to fuel the recovery -- as people know debts either have to be paid back at HORRENDOUS rates of interest or you go Bankrupt -- no other choices.
Fortunately the Politicians are beginning (VERY SLOWLY though) to realize this - even though it will take YEARS for the changes to be implemented.
The Long term prospects for the Market are VERY BRIGHT if you can survive a few of the inevitible large dips.
Its a Good time now to select a decent portfolio and snag a few bargains.
Just don't get too greedy and expect to "Get Rich Quick". You might be lucky but a decent strategy is the only "winning" play in volatile markets IMO.
Cheers
jimbo