Why stops are going off early ??

[Ponce]

Greetings,

Do you drive a car? If so, I imagine that whenever you do get in your car to drive somewhere you have a predefined destination. I was wondering if everytime you drive, you calculate the risk of having an accident on that route for that particular journey based on historical data and performance. If so, does that influence your decision to wear a seat belt?

If the journey takes 1 hr do you leave 30 minutes early, drive in the opposite direction for 15 minutes before doing a U-turn and driving in the right direction or do you leave on time and head in the correct direction right from the start?

Greetings,

Analogy is a bit off.I do drive,and if Im heading 100 miles ,I make sure I have enough fuel to make it,or the ability to refuel.If you are happy with random risk / reward enjoy.When you enter a trade ,direction is all you look for? I do know why you feel this way,the best response I can offer is this: Go to a random direction and time generator,Random.org works well. Pick 10 coin flips per day,and 10 random times during trading hours.Using the NQ,with a risk of 3 points and reward of 40 ,plot it any day you have chart data,and see if the results are positive. Only a 10% win rate produces .43 math,envy of any trader.65 gross pts per week,per contract.

cordially Ponce

 

[Ponce]

Greetings,

Do you drive a car? If so, I imagine that whenever you do get in your car to drive somewhere you have a predefined destination. I was wondering if everytime you drive, you calculate the risk of having an accident on that route for that particular journey based on historical data and performance. If so, does that influence your decision to wear a seat belt?

If the journey takes 1 hr do you leave 30 minutes early, drive in the opposite direction for 15 minutes before doing a U-turn and driving in the right direction or do you leave on time and head in the correct direction right from the start?

Greetings again,

The important part of your analogy assumes you know where you are headed,North is a bit vague,how much North,and if your destination moves,when do you decide to stop heading North?

Ponce

 

[new_trader]

Greetings..etc.

What gives you the impression my entry and risk is random?

 

[new_trader]

Greetings again,

The important part of your analogy assumes you know where you are headed,North is a bit vague,how much North,and if your destination moves,when do you decide to stop heading North?

Ponce

No, the important part of my analogy assumes the driver is experienced and has good judgement. The driver doesn't use fancy formulas and magic numbers to determine whether they need to swerve to avoid a collision.

P.S: Greetings

 

[Ponce]

Greetings..etc.

What gives you the impression my entry and risk is random?

Greetings,

Never thought your entry or direction was random,although it does make money if traded with r/r as the only constant.

If you have an acceptable risk,and realistic target on every trade,you have the formula to trade full time.Congrats,never forget to prepare for the unthinkable,the trader who shorted YM 14k without a stop,or tgt,got in an accident,head injury,coma,wakes up 5 deep with over 5000pts on each.Best trade he ever made was an accident.

cordially Ponce de Leon'

 

[Ponce]

No, the important part of my analogy assumes the driver is experienced and has good judgement. The driver doesn't use fancy formulas and magic numbers to determine whether they need to swerve to avoid a collision.

P.S: Greetings

Greetings,

It is a tough journey.Pride,the need to be right,having the best indicator,inside information,all the things people think will make a great math expectancy.

You will come to this conclusion hopefully sooner than later.Trading is a numbers game that is so easy its impossibly hard.Estimate how many trades you would enjoy making per day,multiply by 5 and figure how many max trades per week you are comfortable with right now.Important part,how much are you willing to risk for the week if every trade lost.Example max drawdown you are willing to risk for the week is $2000.Easiest way to learn this game is divide that figure by the number of trades you are willing to take that week.If its 20 trades,you will risk 100$ per trade,period.If you know your math expectancy is .8 you can be confident on a $1600 a week profit.All of a sudden trading is not whos got the better swammy or crystal ball,but a business run like a Casino with odds in your favor.So consider winners 5 times larger than your losers,and winning only 30% of the time. .8 math,and then skill of reading a market leverages that.Thus a 50 pt NQ that took only 1 stop to enter.Good luck.

cordially Ponce

 

[new_trader]

Greetings,

Fancy formulas and magic numbers have no place in an arena of gladiatorial combat where only the fittest survive.

 

[barjon]

Greetings,

Do you drive a car? If so, I imagine that whenever you do get in your car to drive somewhere you have a predefined destination. I was wondering if everytime you drive, you calculate the risk of having an accident on that route for that particular journey based on historical data and performance. If so, does that influence your decision to wear a seat belt?

If the journey takes 1 hr do you leave 30 minutes early, drive in the opposite direction for 15 minutes before doing a U-turn and driving in the right direction or do you leave on time and head in the correct direction right from the start?

nt

imho your analogy is doubtful.

I would say that if price is the car then the market is the driver and you (me) are a hitch-hiker. You might hitch a lift on the northbound carriageway in anticipation that the driver is headed that way, but he won't tell you his destination and he might just turn off at the next junction and follow a meandering route back and forth as he is wont to do.

good trading

jon

 

[new_trader]

Jon,

Price isn’t the car and the car isn’t the market. The car is the car and the driver is the driver.

 

[rawrschach]

So your point is that your analogy isn't actually an analogy?

So it's superfluous and completely pointless?

 

[new_trader]

If you think so. Maybe if you read it again you will 'get' it.

I'm done here.

 

[rawrschach]

What about forgetting something at home and go back to get it before getting back on your way?

Unless you are clairvoyant and can tell whether or not the market will test the level again...

If he is trading DMA then his stop order going through would show up on T/S.

 

[johnlvs2run]

Greetings,

Analogy is a bit off.I do drive,and if Im heading 100 miles ,I make sure I have enough fuel to make it,or the ability to refuel.If you are happy with random risk / reward enjoy.When you enter a trade ,direction is all you look for? I do know why you feel this way,the best response I can offer is this: Go to a random direction and time generator,Random.org works well. Pick 10 coin flips per day,and 10 random times during trading hours.Using the NQ,with a risk of 3 points and reward of 40 ,plot it any day you have chart data,and see if the results are positive. Only a 10% win rate produces .43 math,envy of any trader.65 gross pts per week,per contract.

cordially Ponce

Are you saying you can be consistently profitable from random entries?