Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[roguetrader]

Ruh Roh Shaggy

as the markets are an extremely harsh place......

Indeed

Well we came into the week with a relatively bullish chart picture and were given a demonstration of how rapidly the picture can change, in two heavy volume days the INDU lost 290 points. Volume surged on both days indicating that institutional selling was behind the move. If you were swinging and got caught long I hope at the very least you honoured your stops. I must say I find it somewhat odd, that coming into quarter end in a position to report a tidy profitable quarter that they would take the market down like this , but there you go, not really my concern. Nice week for the intraday crowd also.
Looking at the charts now the picture ranges from, not very pretty, to downright fugly, with INDU being the worst. The daily uptrend line (on a closing price basis) has been violated and the index has retraced more than 50% of the move up from the April lows.on the way it ploughed straight through the consolidation range of the past month or so, has smashed through the 200 and 50 day sma"s and taken out what I would have viewed fairly good support in the 380-390 area. Momentum needless to say is to the downside, initiative with the bears. Next potential support I see is at 10,250 ish, a swing high from mid April and 61.8% fib of the move up. and below that 10,140. On any upside bounce we should see resistance at the 380-390 level that didn't provide support, also the 50 day sma currently at 376

 

[bakula]

RT
Like our comment re long.....honouring stops. Well, i have learnt an expensive lesson. Also, for the past few weeks i had been intra-trading off and on and was making better returns and obvioulsy faster.
Trading swing on the Indu is difficult with stops...have to be loose due to intraday moves....
The more i am trading, more i am favouring intraday...anyway, at the moment work till 4pm so miss the begining of the trading day...

 

[JillyB]

Good post RT

I can't really say more than that. I too see support being at 10250 ish as this is also part of the longer term trendline.

I orginally posted the charts below earlier today in discussion with Julian on the Trading the SPX thread. The 1 hour chart shows how the trend was broken at around 1pm on Thursday just before trading opened.

The second 4 hour chart shows how we have just completed stage 3 of the 5 stage wave going south and how this could encourage a bounce from 10250 with both short term support and the longer term trend merging around this area.

If it breaks through this level then a test of 10,000 would probably be in order. We shall wait and see.

Personally, my style of trading has done well in the oscillating consolidation of the past few weeks. I find it more difficult to stay with the trend on days such as Thursday and Friday, closing out too soon when I could have let the profits run. I am currently reading up on this (thanks to FC for that one).

Bye for now

 

[Racer]

This is earnings warning season, so if Dow in bear mood, the bulls better watch out!

 

[roguetrader]

RT
Like our comment re long.....honouring stops. Well, i have learnt an expensive lesson. Also, for the past few weeks i had been intra-trading off and on and was making better returns and obvioulsy faster.
Trading swing on the Indu is difficult with stops...have to be loose due to intraday moves....
The more i am trading, more i am favouring intraday...anyway, at the moment work till 4pm so miss the begining of the trading day...

It's all horses for courses Bakula some prefer intraday and some prefer swing, or longer, in reality bottom line is the same, if you're any good at it you'll do ok. If not you'll get burned.
Generally speaking swing trading brings fewer trades, bigger risk per trade and accordingly bigger gains, Intraday, offers more trades, smaller risk per trade and accordingly smaller gains. Any trade you enter in any timeframe has to be managed appropriately otherwise you get lucky or burned. Burned is by far the most likely outcome for poorly managed trades in any timeframe.
Most people's posts I read say intraday trading via spreadbetting is particularly difficult, I don't know since I've never done that and to be honest I'm not even entirely sure exactly what spreadbetting is or involves so I couldn't comment. But it might be wise to seek counsel from some who use them before risking too much.

 

[Racer]

It's all horses for courses Bakula some prefer intraday and some prefer swing, or longer, in reality bottom line is the same, if you're any good at it you'll do ok. If not you'll get burned.
Generally speaking swing trading brings fewer trades, bigger risk per trade and accordingly bigger gains, Intraday, offers more trades, smaller risk per trade and accordingly smaller gains. Any trade you enter in any timeframe has to be managed appropriately otherwise you get lucky or burned. Burned is by far the most likely outcome for poorly managed trades in any timeframe.
Most people's posts I read say intraday trading via spreadbetting is particularly difficult, I don't know since I've never done that and to be honest I'm not even entirely sure exactly what spreadbetting is or involves so I couldn't comment. But it might be wise to seek counsel from some who use them before risking too much.

I prefer spreadbetting for long term swings

For shorter term/day trading, no wouldn't use them

 

[bakula]

Cheers RT.
Yeah, i have found that spreadbetting intraday does reduce income due to the spreads.....that's why i am now learning more about mini cfd's,minidow etc before i increase stake.

Last week i did get burned! however, out of 24 trades....i have taken 6 small losses (stopped out) and 1 biggy(!)..that was me being silly.....
the other's trailled stops..
My risk is £2 or £2.5 per point max so far......
enjoying trading and looking forward to some serious trading soon....

 

[bakula]

Racer, hi!
Most of my trades have been swing...i have only traded intraday with sbttng 5 times.......4 of these trades i was stopped out. .....so learning other stuff!
Cannot trade spreadbets shortterm...agree.....

 

[kriesau]

It's all horses for courses Bakula some prefer intraday and some prefer swing, or longer, in reality bottom line is the same, if you're any good at it you'll do ok. If not you'll get burned.
Generally speaking swing trading brings fewer trades, bigger risk per trade and accordingly bigger gains, Intraday, offers more trades, smaller risk per trade and accordingly smaller gains. Any trade you enter in any timeframe has to be managed appropriately otherwise you get lucky or burned. Burned is by far the most likely outcome for poorly managed trades in any timeframe.
Most people's posts I read say intraday trading via spreadbetting is particularly difficult, I don't know since I've never done that and to be honest I'm not even entirely sure exactly what spreadbetting is or involves so I couldn't comment. But it might be wise to seek counsel from some who use them before risking too much.

Thats a pretty good and succinct summary of the two major forms of spread trading. I would add that swing trades can be implemented and monitored on a daily basis (particularly if you haven't got the time or facility to follow the market) but intraday trades need to be micro managed through constant attention to market movements through out the day.

Intraday trading can be a successful and profitable activity if the right discipline is applied and if managed properly but it is a much more difficult and demanding activity than swing trading, particularly on days when a market is in a narrow consolidating mode.

 

[roguetrader]

Interesting, looking at a chart QQQQ between 20:10 - 20:20 our time (3:10 - 3:20 EST) 65 million shares changed hands near the lows of the day, given that that is around 46% of the volume for the day, and is around 60% of a normal daily volume for the stock one wonders what if any the significance of that would be.

 

[karmit]

Cheers RT.
Yeah, i have found that spreadbetting intraday does reduce income due to the spreads.....that's why i am now learning more about mini cfd's,minidow etc before i increase stake.

Last week i did get burned! however, out of 24 trades....i have taken 6 small losses (stopped out) and 1 biggy(!)..that was me being silly.....
the other's trailled stops..
My risk is £2 or £2.5 per point max so far......
enjoying trading and looking forward to some serious trading soon....

bakula,
which broker do you use for mini cfd's,minidow ? I'm looking for a good one.....
cheers,
karmit

 

[roguetrader]

First signs of capitulation ?

Yes that is what I was wondering, the trades don't appear to be any ridiculously large block trades, just very heavy trading in that time period, possibly something triggered by the index hitting 1500.

 

[Racer]

Yes that is what I was wondering, the trades don't appear to be any ridiculously large block trades, just very heavy trading in that time period, possibly something triggered by the index hitting 1500.

Ah the round number effect :!:

 

[bakula]

bakula,
which broker do you use for mini cfd's,minidow ? I'm looking for a good one.....
cheers,
karmit

Hiya Karmit
I have just requested the free information from Finspreads re the mini cfd's....i haven't actually traded this yet...
i have been with Finspreads from the start. They're a good bunch...well, i haven't had any problems thus far .

However, i am looking at a couple of other services too. I have had an intersting email from Blue Index, apparently Zak Mir is under their wing so to speak!
I am a little unsure of this way of trading....I like to manage my own trades...not have a broker do it for me...if a broker manages, how am i to learn?
Yes, i know they have the expertise but when will i gain this if they monitor and take action on my behalf?

But to have an expert like Zak give his opion on your decision cannpt be a bad thing hey.

 

[bakula]

Karmit and Minder
I have come accross this site, very interesting it has a lot of information to learn from....
http://www.lionsfutures.com/

Hope it helps....;-)

 

[rrtech]

What price won last weeks dow comp? I had 10366

 

[Racer]

Racer, hi!
Most of my trades have been swing...i have only traded intraday with sbttng 5 times.......4 of these trades i was stopped out. .....so learning other stuff!
Cannot trade spreadbets shortterm...agree.....

Swing trading is more relaxing and less intense. Depends what you like to do really.

Spreadbet companies move the price in much bigger jumps than the futures and cos of the spread make it very hard. Trading is difficult enough without taking on even more problems

Good luck with your trading bakula

 

[karmit]

Karmit and Minder
I have come accross this site, very interesting it has a lot of information to learn from....
http://www.lionsfutures.com/

Hope it helps....;-)

looks ok.. however, I'll prefer something UK based and covered by FSA... at least the "peace of mind" that there is some "control" over the bunch running the business! - also, sending and refunding money from US based brokers is quite expensive - if you do that frequently, it really adds up!

 

[User]

The week ahead

Earnings:
Monday 27th June Q3: Walgreen; Q4: Nike, Paychex
Tuesday 28th June Q3: Apollo Group
Wednesday 29th June Q3: Monsanto Co; Q4: General Mills Inc, Oracle
Thursday 30th June Q2: McCormick & Co Inc; Q4: Biomet Inc, ConAgra Foods Inc
Friday 1st July None

Data:
Monday 27th June None
Tuesday 28th June US: June consumer confidence (1500 BST)
Wednesday 29th June US: Q1 final GDP (1330 BST), W/e 24/6 crude oil inventories (1530 BST)Thursday 30th June US: W/e 25/6 initial jobless claims (1330 BST), May personal income (1330 BST), May personal spending (1330 BST), May help-wanted index (1500 BST), June Chicago PMI (1500 BST)
Friday 1st July US: June final Michigan consumer sentiment (1445 BST), May construction spending (1500 BST), June manufacturing ISM (1500 BST), June vehicle sales (1700 BST)

Busy Busy week

Good news for the Bulls

Technically the week ahead is known to be fairly bullish. Last week's sell off turned most of the indicators downward and alleviated the overbought condition the market had been in for a while.

Good news for the Bears

The trend is now down on the daily charts and the weekly charts. The Dow has shown great resistance in my stated area of 10600-50 on the weekly charts. The S&P has topped at 1220. The Nasdaq has shown great problems at 2100. The indicators are now down. The VIX hasn't really moved up much and is still at dangerous low levels. The furious down moves shown over the past two sessions basically mean that a continuation is expected or at best upward action will be difficult......

Overall translation

Stats show that next week is 'generally' bullish. However that is not 100%. The downward moves seen over the past few days should be continued. However if we see the Dow gain this week by 1 point then the stats of this week being a bullish one would still be valid. So limited upside is expected if any but follow the trend which is your friend. The S&P500 when closing the week at around 1190 on the weekly chart basically means the following week then does closer even lower. That is true when as far as this year is concerned.

Good luck.......Should be interesting...

 

[counter_violent]

What price won last weeks dow comp? I had 10366

10,298 was the close price for the Dow comp on the week

good trading

C V