Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[tradesmart]

The US bond market closes early at 19.00 gmt today, so I suspect that if there is going to be a rally that sticks, it will be this evening when stocks can forget about the competition...

Purely speculative comment, mind......

Later - some hopes! - bears rool ok....?.......

 

[kriesau]

Broken through 10500 and reached a high of 10518 and has been trying to sustain the breach in the 515 - 518 range for 20 minutes now. I think that it'll either suceed and move up to 10550 or if it fails it'll fall back to 10490 by the close.

 

[kriesau]

Well it couldn't sustain the breach and fell off the cliff in the last 90 minutes, dropping 70 points.
Next week should be relatively quiet with many traders on an extended Easter break and no major economic news due.
I guess that the oil price and threat of inflation will continue to dominate - could we see 10350 ??

 

[tradesmart]

Just a long bear flag in the end (chart attached) - hard to get any kind of rally going off of that.....

More 'bottom' forming to do imho and the year lows look inviting.......

and beyond that there is a very steep cliff.......

ps - but one for the bulls :- the Dow has had 11 red closes in the last 14 sessions since it closed at the 10940 multi-year high on 4/3/05 - they often come back from long weekends in a 'happy'( :cheesy: ) buying mood, so with no major data releases, possible stronger $/weaker oil and maybe a delayed +ve reaction to the GE news, perhaps we are overdue a 'green' day....

Relevant Quotes:-
"The inability to hold gains just tells me the market's not ready to bounce from an oversold condition. The fear factor of higher interest rates is still very much in progress," said Peter Cardillo, chief market strategist at S.W. Bach.

Other strategists, meanwhile, said investors were facing"a much different market" and investors need to be careful.

"We're in a much tougher market now with the bond market deteriorating here and stocks are not going to be rallying unless you get a coincident rally in bonds," Boockvar said.

Tom Hougaard:-
I am currently long the Dow and the Dax, expecting more upside, but by next week I will begin to re-short everything.

 

[RUDEBOY]

Mmm, go with the flow and sell it off. But you can not seriously ignore the vol going into the down at the moment. Faded a bit to severe the other day, but i'll recoupe. I'll go for the 'up' position around this price. Besides, there's been a good run in.

 

[counter_violent]

Mmm, go with the flow and sell it off. But you can not seriously ignore the vol going into the down at the moment. Faded a bit to severe the other day, but i'll recoupe. I'll go for the 'up' position around this price. Besides, there's been a good run in.

I was just about to post on the topic of following the trend, today being a classic example of why we should

We have no way of knowing where this one will find support , so my suggestion is not to even try to catch the falling knife

 

[RUDEBOY]

CV, that's all well and good! But somebody on here has got a signature that basically says 'anticipate'. I don't want to be arguementitve, just have a look?

 

[RUDEBOY]

If you see it, why not pick up on that? Are we not allowed mistakes?

 

[tradesmart]

Rudeboy:-
But somebody on here has got a signature that basically says 'anticipate'

Yes -

By the time the market 'confirms' what you suspected, it is TOO LATE. By the time the market passes or fails a 'test', it is too late. To be paid, you must act upon your suspicions before they are manifested.

I reckon that we could see a big short squeeze on a minor pretext soon, possibly Monday......just a suspicion for now - the tank at the end today was just a gap fill imho.....

 

[RUDEBOY]

TS, don't be like that. It was just an observation, nothing critical.

 

[RUDEBOY]

Look, you lot have not seen anything that nobody else has seen! You've got to be honest? So i'm a stranger, and you don't like where i am comming from? Have your thread, it's a good thread, but don't think your beyond the markets, or beyond anybody else for that matter.

 

[counter_violent]

Any comments I make are simply general in tone, not aimed at anyone, but hopefully we are all helping each other with different observations and analysis. no ?

 

[RUDEBOY]

Anyway, buy on margin, and forget stops on this one!

 

[tradesmart]

Rudeboy:-
I'll go for the 'up' position around this price

Rudeboy
By saying "I reckon that we could see a big short squeeze on a minor pretext soon, possibly Monday......just a suspicion for now - the tank at the end today was just a gap fill imho..... "

I was merely agreeing with you that "up" could be imminent....!....your view is just as valid as anybody elses.....

Good Luck....

 

[RUDEBOY]

TS, i'm trying hard with my paranoid delusions. Just give me time.

 

[counter_violent]

Anyhow , there is some good news this week amongst all the doom and gloom.







I THINK I WON THE DOW COMP

so T S can BULLy me into BEARing all lol

 

[RUDEBOY]

TS, of course i am only joking!!

 

[RUDEBOY]

CV, nice one!...I won't ask questions?

 

[RUDEBOY]

O.K. can i scratch, i'm not a Bramble?

 

[RUDEBOY]

Bramble: noun: Annoying to say the least.