Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[macbonzo]

Currently long at 10640 :cheesy:

To quote Dylan "A hard rain is gonna fall" though hopefully not just yet. Will we see 10750 first :!: :!:

Maybe we should call you Icarus. Well done. I really would consider taking the profit at the end of the day.

I'm impressed.

 

[Racer]

This market hasn't got a care in the world, it is Sept 11 soon, the evil October next month, they aren't even thinking about that.
Deficits, inflation, falling growth, interest rate rises, high oil price, housing bubbles, froth and conundrums, worst disaster in history, refineries shut down, rigs damaged, all these do not matter the bulls are running and nothing will stop them, they will keep running till the last one dies.....
How high will they run to first? Bulls on adrenaline are hard to stop!

All these problems in the markets eyes seem to have been solved with the recent fall in the oil price, consumers having seen oil rise so fast and cut back, they will not suddenly rush out and go back to normal, they will be reserved and hesitant with their spending on other things yet filling their tanks up just in case it runs out (and therefore causing a much greater drain on supply) , they will wonder if it will happen again, so they will wait, just in case after all, have all the oil supply problems actually be sorted out or is just a stop gap. In a week or so when it finally hits that is isn't so rosy will we get the reaction? Delayed one but it could be a big reaction.
I will wait and see!

 

[kriesau]

Maybe we should call you Icarus. Well done. I really would consider taking the profit at the end of the day.

I'm impressed.

Well I've "fallen to earth" several times recently with Dow shorts
Just playing the odds on breaches of key support/resistance levels

Will wait and see where the market closes before deciding whether to closeout and take any profit or to lock some in at a lower level/break-even and see what Monday brings. This could have further legs yet - this afternoon could be key !

We still have the hurdle of breaching the next level of minor resistance at 10700.

 

[kriesau]

This market hasn't got a care in the world, it is Sept 11 soon, the evil October next month, they aren't even thinking about that.
Deficits, inflation, falling growth, interest rate rises, high oil price, housing bubbles, froth and conundrums, worst disaster in history, refineries shut down, rigs damaged, all these do not matter the bulls are running and nothing will stop them, they will keep running till the last one dies.....
How high will they run to first? Bulls on adrenaline are hard to stop!

All these problems in the markets eyes seem to have been solved with the recent fall in the oil price, consumers having seen oil rise so fast and cut back, they will not suddenly rush out and go back to normal, they will be reserved and hesitant, they will wonder if it will happen again, so they will wait, just in case after all, have all the oil supply problems actually be sorted out or is just a stop gap. In a week or so when it finally hits that is isn't so rosy will we get the reaction? Delayed one but it could be a big reaction.
I will wait and see!

I agree - we are heading for a big downside - but as always the key question is when

 

[Racer]

I think the next few weeks will be telling.. when the real extent of the oil situation becomes apparent.. the oil figures recently were not accurate at all from what I have been reading.. because of the problems.

 

[Dean240]

Currently long at 10640 :cheesy:

To quote Dylan "A hard rain is gonna fall" though hopefully not just yet. Will we see 10750 first :!: :!:

10719 is next target on Dow just look at the the congestion on the YM on Friday Sept. 9,at that level the market is talking...Dec 05 YM is projecting the next Dow level here

 

[Racer]

'In our view the spin masters are seriously underestimating the potential negative consequences of Katrina. They are treating it as just another storm, stating that the dislocations will be temporary; that the money pumped in will be a positive; and that the Fed could halt its policy of hiking funds rates. They also point out that the stock market, knowing all this, has behaved very well in the aftermath of the destruction. The overall focus has been extremely narrow, concentrating mainly on the day-to-day and intra-day fluctuations of oil prices. If only things were that simple.'

Underestimating the loss of a City

 

[Racer]

Reading that article, there must be a lot of spin going on about how good they all are, the fact that they took so long to do anything, oh that is brilliant, no problem, they will wave a magic wand and it will be all super again.. well according to Bush it was going to be when he was talking in the first few days it was happening

XOM also closed up 2.77% today not far off its all time high on a big drop in oil? Is that a sign oil supply is okay and demand is going down?

 

[Racer]

I had a phone call tonight from someone who has worked in shipping and he agreed with the details of that article.
My conclusion is that the market is now behaving like a headless chicken, thrashing around seemingly full of life and extraordinarily so because of lack of the controlling head and brain, before it falls over.

Draw your own picture for what I really mean .... a small tree for example...... :cheesy:

 

[Bigbusiness]

I had a phone call tonight from someone who has worked in shipping and he agreed with the details of that article.
My conclusion is that the market is now behaving like a headless chicken, thrashing around seemingly full of life and extraordinarily so because of lack of the controlling head and brain, before it falls over.

Draw your own picture for what I really mean .... a small tree for example...... :cheesy:

The problem is, a headless chicken can survive a lot longer than most people think. This one went on for 18 months

http://www.miketheheadlesschicken.org/story.html

 

[Racer]

Well that makes the particular chicken I am talking about well past its sell by date by that estimation

 

[Racer]

Trouble with you Racer is that you're just an old fashioned cynic

http://www.volvoclub.org.uk/dc/user_files/1193.jpg

Just catching up and made a note to look at this post again for the link...

ROFL!!

 

[Racer]

Port of South Louisiana

The Port of South Louisiana is the largest volume shipping port in the United States and fifth largest in the world .2003 World port rankings . It is the largest bulk cargo port in the world.

It extends 54 miles along the Mississippi River between New Orleans, Louisiana and Baton Rouge, Louisiana, centering approximately at LaPlace, Louisiana. This port is critical for grain shipments from the Midwest, handling some 60% of all raw grain exports.

Port operations are currently shut down because of Hurricane Katrina. The condition of the port is not known. If the port is severely damaged, large disruptions in both imports and exports could result, including oil imports (the Port of South Louisiana is the main receiving terminal for supertankers from Saudi Arabia)

Not sure what time wheat harvest and export is in US but harvest not that long ago and in full steam of export??

 

[fudgestain]

As you seem keen to grab every available point, perhaps you could enlighten us with your method of picking the entry point?

I use a predictive (numerical) trading model for the Dow. I want to know by market start if the main leg is up or down, range samples for the day and if the main leg is preceded by an opposite leg of some size (but smaller than main leg). I also want to know where is my quickest 50 points up or down (top to bottom or bottom to to top) out from the Open. I get all that.

None of this will help you.

All or most believe in trend. The sum of the major daily gyrations (just take the main leg up or down per day) is a huge multiple of any trend, A to B, whether weekly, monthly or for the year.

I see the market as there for the player to amass money from it.

 

[Racer]

I use a predictive (numerical) trading model for the Dow. I want to know by market start if the main leg is up or down, range samples for the day and if the main leg is preceded by an opposite leg of some size (but smaller than main leg). I also want to know where is my quickest 50 points up or down (top to bottom or bottom to to top) out from the Open. I get all that.

None of this will help you.

All or most believe in trend. The sum of the major daily gyrations (just take the main leg up or down per day) is a huge multiple of any trend, A to B, whether weekly, monthly or for the year.

I see the market as there for the player to amass money from it.

'None of this will help you'

That is a reply to my question?

Your first paragraph was interesting but then lost it because of your lack of real information.

If you want to criticise go ahead but back it up with valid argument

 

[twiggytwo]

Dow Bull Signals

10719 is next target on Dow just look at the the congestion on the YM on Friday Sept. 9,at that level the market is talking...Dec 05 YM is projecting the next Dow level here

HI Dean 240, glad to see you live in the real world
I see a lot of short ramping on this site
I have the next move up to 10,718 and my indicator is hot ( 84.5 % ) but it's private
Best Regards

 

[fudgestain]

'None of this will help you'
That is a reply to my question?
Your first paragraph was interesting but then lost it because of your lack of real information.
If you want to criticise go ahead but back it up with valid argument

I didn't expect any better. That makes my point; any clue is always wasted on recipients.

 

[Racer]

I didn't expect any better. That makes my point; any clue is always wasted on recipients.

You come on this thread make a few noises and then complain without contributing

Let the readers judge

 

[kriesau]

You come on this thread make a few noises and then complain without contributing

Let the readers judge

The belligerant attitude and supercilious pronouncements of this poster (not to mention the psychology behind the adoption of a name like Fudgestain) is redolent of someone else with Grecian label.

 

[fudgestain]

The belligerant attitude and supercilious pronouncements of this poster (not to mention the psychology behind the adoption of a name like Fudgestain) is redolent of someone else with Grecian label.

Oh poor thing. Have I tried to take away all your charty-warties and volly-wolumes?
Be content, clasp them to your breast and stay with them. You are free to do what you want.