Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

RUDEBOY said:
Mmm, i like the sound of that restraunt night, Aspex. You are right, it is too bloody expensive over here. Rude.

In UK money equivalent. Dinner for four (entree and main) 40 pounds, wine (3 bottle BYO) 13 pounds and no tip to worry about. Then there is transport- Nil as we walk there in two minutes.
Not as cheap as Singapore but.....
 
aspex said:
In UK money equivalent. Dinner for four (entree and main) 40 pounds, wine (3 bottle BYO) 13 pounds and no tip to worry about. Then there is transport- Nil as we walk there in two minutes.
Not as cheap as Singapore but.....

Spent 4 years of my mispent youth in Auckland. Great place, a pity it's not a bit closer to civilization.

Rude
If you favour an up on opening we should have the little bugger cornered :LOL:
 
counter_violent said:
There are too many roundabouts and tatty grass verges in Warrington . A truly awful place :!:

Perhaps downwind of the vodka factory would be of some benefit ;)
 
aspex said:
Rudeboy,
As a Kiwi the chances are I can understand you far better than some of your fellow Poms.
Such is the english language that the NZ user is right in the middle of it all and if you look further you will find more than one New Zealander right at the core of it . One was editor of the OE dictionary for some time.
Admit it, you will find any NZer easy to understand if you talk to one of us.
I hope I come through as I have just had my Saturday night out at my local Turkish restuarant with three of my fellow NZers (all three originally incl. wife born in UK) Three bottles of good Kiwi wine(one each Lindauer Special Reserve, one good merlot and one chardonnay, three beers and four liqueurs later)
All for half the price or less of dining in the UK...I should know as I was with you in July, wasn't I Racer?

Life is wonderful!!!
You were indeed! :)
No-one can claim it is too far to Taunton or beat you in the distance travelled!

But you did make a lot of people thoroughly jealous when you gave us a great talk about NZ
 
kriesau said:
The catalyst for these converging problems will almost certainly be delayed until Greenspan leaves office in January. However the issue that interests us here is when will this looming problem be factored into the stock markets which anticipate what is likely to happen next rather than reflect what is going on today.
Will we see a real downturn this autumn or will the current Goldilocks story survive until the new year ?

One thing is for sure - it will happen and when it does it will be bloody !


The Potential Crisis at Fannie Mae
 
kriesau said:
The June trade deficit was nearly $59bn which equates to roughly 6% of US GDP. A third of that total deficit - approx $20bn - was oil but this was based upon an average price of circa $45 per barrel ! An average price of $60 will add circa an extra $10bn PER MONTH soon to the existing trade deficit. That is more than 1% of GDP. This will inevitably impact consumer spending as petrol prices and home heating costs increase and disposable income correspondingly decreases as we get into the autumn.

Where will the price of Nymex traded crude be if the average price of a barrel of oil is $60 ?

$70, $75 ? Maybe higher ?

June oil price averages were $45. Nymex traded crude traded at an average of about $55 for the same period.
 
kriesau said:
The catalyst for these converging problems will almost certainly be delayed until Greenspan leaves office in January. However the issue that interests us here is when will this looming problem be factored into the stock markets which anticipate what is likely to happen next rather than reflect what is going on today.[/color][/font]
Will we see a real downturn this autumn

How about October for the drop followed by a b**ls**t rally up to chrimbo......following the historical patterns !
 
well.. the market was not able to breakout in the past few sessions and gave up the gains towards the
end of each session... if it had wanted to go up - it would have by now! - I'll be adding to shorts when the futures get really pumped... then ready to dump towards the end!
 
my thoughts exactly. Will be interested to see if PFE and MRK have any lingering effects on the dow. However a lot of commentary has predicted a move after the option expiration was out of the way. Monday could get very messy but volume wont confirm until after labour day I guess. As a swing trader looking to bag 250+ points plus it is difficult. I try not to do much intraday stuff but recently I have in these tight markets.
 
Dow Topping out ??
Merck is probably heading for the dustbin. Who would want it now ?
The gurus prefer Novartis or Astra.
 
Impact of escalating oil prices

Interesting comment in The Times today

"A report by ABN Amro shows a sharp divergence in the long term effect of higher oil prices around the world........Todays high oil prices would have a different effect (compared to 1973) because the shortage of oil today comes from high demand rather than a cut in supply. This means that demand for non oil related products remains high and oil-producing countries which reap the windfall og higher prices are likely to import more products and boost export countries growth rates.

EU exports to OPEC states have risen from an average of $50bn a year in the 90's to a projected $110bn this year. China has also seen its exports to OPEC soar. No such increase has taken place in American exports to OPEC which remain at a rate of roughly $30bn a year despite their massive rise in imports from OPEC countries.......ABN Amro said that the burden on EU and Chinese countries from higher oil prices appears to have been entirely offset by stronger imports. In contrast, the trade position between the US & Japan with OPEC has deteriorated significantly in recent years despite the decline of the dollar during that time".

This suggests that the major EU economies will be largely insulated from the increasing oil price wheras the US will continue to be adversly impacted primarily through further increases in its trade deficit and by the inflationary effect on domestic energy prices.
 
kriesau said:
Interesting comment in The Times today

"A report by ABN Amro shows a sharp divergence in the long term effect of higher oil prices around the world........Todays high oil prices would have a different effect (compared to 1973) because the shortage of oil today comes from high demand rather than a cut in supply. This means that demand for non oil related products remains high and oil-producing countries which reap the windfall og higher prices are likely to import more products and boost export countries growth rates. etc.

That is interesting indeed. However when it comes to the "average person" is he/she going to take a bus, walk or cycle instead of using the car ? Not for long ,if at all, especially if it is raining and cold. The USA will try to get Alaska up and producing. Perhaps an innovative idea - such as subsidised swapping existing cars for hybrid models ?
 
Pat494 said:
Dow Topping out ??
Merck is probably heading for the dustbin. Who would want it now ?
The gurus prefer Novartis or Astra.

It topped out. Hope you were aboard !
 
And look at that for pump and dump... pushed up 50 in way out of hours trading and now look at the Dow... down 26!
 
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