Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[roguetrader]

Nice strong move here internals strong and volume ahaed of yesterdays levels

 

[roguetrader]

Greenie pointed out last night that although an inverted yeild curve has denoted a recession in the past, it doesn't have to in the future, if we don't want it to

So nothing to worry aboutthere then.

 

[SOCRATES]

So you expect the dow to close the week higher than the open, Socs ?

Yes.

 

[kriesau]

Greenie pointed out last night that although an inverted yeild curve has denoted a recession in the past, it doesn't have to in the future, if we don't want it to

So nothing to worry aboutthere then.

Well of course it's different this time, isn't it. We have a whole new paradigm here.
Haven't we heard that one before somewhere !

 

[SOCRATES]

Socs, while you're trying to teach us plebs something about the markets, I'd like to teach you about using the "Edit/Delete Message" button.......

OK, show me please.

 

[roguetrader]

Coming into lunch, total volume still well ahead of yesterdays pace on both markets. Internals bullish on both markets and holding near the highs

 

[kriesau]

Dow ranging 10550 - 575 now for 3 hours.
Oil has dropped below $54 today.

US April Consumer Credit figures are due to be released at 8.00pm UK time today.
The annual rate of increase was 3.3% in Feb and 3.1% in March. Annual non revolving loans (for capital items such as cars, boats, mobile homes etc) were running at 2.3% in Feb and 4.7% in March.

Be interesting to see whether the monthly rate hikes have reduced both the revolving and non-revolving credit levels. The credit figures published EXCLUDE mortgages and home equity refinancing so they do not truly represent the actual position.

 

[DaveJB]

The Dow has simply ( <g!>) catapulted back to the top of the range it's been in for 2 weeks or so - you only have to look at the daily chart to see that it is still rangebound. Just as big 'up' days shouldn't be taken as some sort of divine revelation of good times ahead (1 June) so big down days (3 June) shouldn't be taken as proof that the western world is spending 2006 living in a box.

Most of these big swings have taken an hour or less to run through, the , market is still going sideways in the middle of an unspectacular but plodding uptrend. Personally I don't think that Mr Greenspan's opinion counts for the decimal point in the Dow price, never mind the bit before it. If 'real' economics were affecting the market it'd be at 200 and dropping, but it's 'perceived value' that keeps it all up there, not reality.

FWIW, and without wishing to sound unduly like a Soc supporter, the guy said last week that this was a bullish market while the majority were calling it doom on toast - he was nearer right than many another on here, so whilst I'd be the first to agree his manner tends to polarise opinion I think he was right (ish) when being a bull was contrarian.

I still think, naturally, that I got it more right than Soc did, as it's still rangebound - what I find a little surprising is how quickly it is swinging, much of the day's range being confined to a small part of the intraday chart....

Dave

 

[lemput]

dow shedding points... short term reaction or what? wont be too bullish if we finish this far off the highs!

 

[Bigbusiness]

Socrates must have read my post on the 'Trading day by day' thread Doesn't look quite so bullish now though, so perhaps we are both wrong. As I am hopeless at longer term trading but can make some nice money on the intra-day moves, I don't mind what direction the markets move in.

 

[SOCRATES]

I still say this market is bullish, this is because I have seen this kind of price behaviour in the Dow before.
This entrapment within a range can go on for longer than anticpated, sometimes for weeks on end. You will be able to get a clearer picture if you use a longer timeframe, such as a half hour or an hourly chaft displaying say 300 bars.

In my reply to Jilly to her post number 4529 in my post number 4530 of this thread , previous page, I say so. It is a matter of patience and allowing the situation time for it to unfold itself.

These intermittent falls, temporarily disconcerting or alarming perhaps, do not constitute a bear market.

 

[SOCRATES]

dow shedding points... short term reaction or what? wont be too bullish if we finish this far off the highs!

Well yes, if you examine the situation with care you will observe the presence of stopping volume on bottoms. This is a clear indication of support.

 

[kriesau]

The Dow has simply ( <g!>) catapulted back to the top of the range it's been in for 2 weeks or so - you only have to look at the daily chart to see that it is still rangebound. Just as big 'up' days shouldn't be taken as some sort of divine revelation of good times ahead (1 June) so big down days (3 June) shouldn't be taken as proof that the western world is spending 2006 living in a box.

Most of these big swings have taken an hour or less to run through, the , market is still going sideways in the middle of an unspectacular but plodding uptrend. Personally I don't think that Mr Greenspan's opinion counts for the decimal point in the Dow price, never mind the bit before it. If 'real' economics were affecting the market it'd be at 200 and dropping, but it's 'perceived value' that keeps it all up there, not reality.

FWIW, and without wishing to sound unduly like a Soc supporter, the guy said last week that this was a bullish market while the majority were calling it doom on toast - he was nearer right than many another on here, so whilst I'd be the first to agree his manner tends to polarise opinion I think he was right (ish) when being a bull was contrarian.

I still think, naturally, that I got it more right than Soc did, as it's still rangebound - what I find a little surprising is how quickly it is swinging, much of the day's range being confined to a small part of the intraday chart....

Dave

Well I disagree. One can debate definitions but I believe that we have been in a secular Bear market since mid 2000 and a cyclical Bull market over the past two years. On this basis, the 50% retracement in the markets since the mid 2003 lows represent the interim Bull cycle and I would expect markets to resume a bearish direction in due course this year.

 

[User]

I haven't been posting much recently as I've not been interacting with the markets much. My shorts are still in play though....I added another short at near the high levels at 10569.

Looking at yesterdays session, well the volume was light which normally isn't a good thing. Todays session didnt shape up much better in terms of the bullish case. This market needs a test of 10400 so that it can make its mind up and thats what we'll be seeing this week.

The Indicies lost most of the days gains with the Nasdaq leading the way down. I've said it many times before when the Nasdaq leads direction then normally a continuation of that direction can be seen accross the rest of the 'majors'.

Which way are we heading? Believe or not.......Down :arrowd:......atleast 10420-00 is going to tested

 

[lemput]

good to have you back User. Considering that the dow managed to lose 100 points just about from its intra day top I think we could be in for another go on the downside. However the 420 area will probably hold as did 580. We need another catalyst or we will just keep bouncing off technical levels. would be interested in any views on the volume on the last couple of hours. New longs getting stopped or fresh shorters at desirable levels?

 

[kriesau]

I haven't been posting much recently as I've not been interacting with the markets much. My shorts are still in play though....I added another short at near the high levels at 10569.

Looking at yesterdays session, well the volume was light which normally isn't a good thing. Todays session didnt shape up much better in terms of the bullish case. This market needs a test of 10400 so that it can make its mind up and thats what we'll be seeing this week.

The Indicies lost most of the days gains with the Nasdaq leading the way down. I've said it many times before when the Nasdaq leads direction then normally a continuation of that direction can be seen accross the rest of the 'majors'.

Which way are we heading? Believe or not.......Down :arrowd:......atleast 10420-00 is going to tested

Hi User - Good to see you back. Well, I think we are due a break from this consolidation range after 3 weeks and after the last 2 days price action I am inclined to agree with you.

I went short on the Dow, NDX, SPX and FTSE on Friday but closed my US shorts before the market opened this morning. Seeing the way the Futures were going I had a speculative intraday long on the Dow at 10500 which was stopped out at 10555 when the market started to decline. I then went short on the NDX at 1550 and the Dow at 10548 and intend to hold these positions with long stops. I'm looking for a retest of 10400 and 1510 again this week.

My FTSE short at 5003 is still 10 pts under water but I'm fairly confident that this market will fall to at least 10480 by Friday.

There will probably be some more up days but I believe that the overall direction will be down to the expiry date next week.

 

[roguetrader]

Interesting day, strong start right out of the gate, volume increased over yesterday confirming the move up, internals were bullish, then we traded sideways for about 3 hrs, and then the wheels came off and we went back to the start, on more or less the same volume.
Nice range to trade, though you were a better man / woman than me if you caught the trip to the top, fortunately the trip to the bottom was a little easier to get hold of.
Total volume rose on both markets by about 24% over yesterdays level, though it doesn't really tell me a lot since it appears to be evenly distributed between the up and down moves.
Essentially i see this as a continuation of the more or less sideways range in the INDU and SPX, whilst the COMPQ and SOX correct after their May gains.
I have included an hourly chart of INDU to illustrate the nice trading range the DOW is carving.
Should the COMPQ correct by price my target remains 2018, however it is just as possible that the index will correct by time. Outside of that risk remains to the upside.

TXN has just released its mid-quarter update, raising forcasts
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...347-4D9A-B17B-32C217C4FC2C}&siteid=mktw&dist=

 

[kriesau]

Interesting day, strong start right out of the gate, volume increased over yesterday confirming the move up, internals were bullish, then we traded sideways for about 3 hrs, and then the wheels came off and we went back to the start, on more or less the same volume.
Nice range to trade, though you were a better man / woman than me if you caught the trip to the top, fortunately the trip to the bottom was a little easier to get hold of.
Total volume rose on both markets by about 24% over yesterdays level, though it doesn't really tell me a lot since it appears to be evenly distributed between the up and down moves.
Essentially i see this as a continuation of the more or less sideways range in the INDU and SPX, whilst the COMPQ and SOX correct after their May gains.
I have included an hourly chart of INDU to illustrate the nice trading range the DOW is carving.
Should the COMPQ correct by price my target remains 2018, however it is just as possible that the index will correct by time. Outside of that risk remains to the upside.

Interesting that volume was up 24% although it appears to have been shared amongst both buyers and sellers. Dow has consolidated between 10400 - 10600 for 11 consecutive sessions now.

No Dow companies reporting for the rest of this week.
April Wholesale inventories tomorrow and May jobless claims on Thursday.
On Friday we get the April Trade Deficit before the bell and the May domestic budget deficit at 14.00EST.

If we need a real catalyst for a major break out of this range then Friday could be the day to provide one.
On that basis my expectation would be on the downside !

 

[roguetrader]

No Dow companies reporting for the rest of this week.

Be advised INTC gives its mid-quarter update on Thursday, though not heavily weighted on the DOW it can be a market mover.

 

[ivorm]

Interesting day, strong start right out of the gate, volume increased over yesterday confirming the move up, internals were bullish, then we traded sideways for about 3 hrs, and then the wheels came off and we went back to the start, on more or less the same volume.

Hi RT,

Could you clarify what you mean by "internals were bullish" please ? What are the internals ?

TIA

Regards,

Ivor