roguetrader
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Internals still favour the downside
User
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We broke out of todays range to the upside but closed just below the breakout level.....We still closed down on the Dow but still managed to close above 10500.
For Wednesday it seems likely that the battles of 10500 will continue. If the market cannot extend gains then we may see a test of 10400. The VIX moved lower today and currently is suggesting a Sell. Yes we could move to 10600 but the upside seems limited and the downside reward seems greater.
Should be interesting as the sentiment is obviously getting bullish with bears seeming a little dead after last weeks surge.
10500.....again 500 points from the high and 500 points from the lows. Extremely interesting stuff at the moment. The Bull trend in my opinion seems like it expired a while ago but the bulls are not giving up yet. This counter trend was expected and thats all I would call it at this moment in time..........Who will win.....Bulls or Bears?! We shall see......
In my opinion a bear market has started and we should not chase the limited upside.
The 10500 to 550 does seem like an important area.
For Wednesday it seems likely that the battles of 10500 will continue. If the market cannot extend gains then we may see a test of 10400. The VIX moved lower today and currently is suggesting a Sell. Yes we could move to 10600 but the upside seems limited and the downside reward seems greater.
Should be interesting as the sentiment is obviously getting bullish with bears seeming a little dead after last weeks surge.
10500.....again 500 points from the high and 500 points from the lows. Extremely interesting stuff at the moment. The Bull trend in my opinion seems like it expired a while ago but the bulls are not giving up yet. This counter trend was expected and thats all I would call it at this moment in time..........Who will win.....Bulls or Bears?! We shall see......
In my opinion a bear market has started and we should not chase the limited upside.
The 10500 to 550 does seem like an important area.
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Been doing a little extra analysis and I'm feeling rather confident that we may have seen the high of this upward run on Monday. Great shorting opportunity and any upside should be taken as a chance to short at better prices.
Futures currently down and if we see 10500 on wednesday then I will add to my current shorts with an intial obvious target of 10400 and then we should see lower targets hit. 10,000 is my real target.
Great chance to short.......SELL
We could see the real reaction to the minutes in wednesdays session.....Durable goods order could be interesting.....
Trend is still :arrowu:
But I favour :arrowd: side
Futures currently down and if we see 10500 on wednesday then I will add to my current shorts with an intial obvious target of 10400 and then we should see lower targets hit. 10,000 is my real target.
Great chance to short.......SELL
We could see the real reaction to the minutes in wednesdays session.....Durable goods order could be interesting.....
Trend is still :arrowu:
But I favour :arrowd: side
http://www.tradethemarkets.com/video/ttm05242005hs.html I like this one, interesting.
roguetrader
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From the analysis of the minutes on Bloomberg after their release, I'm not sure that there is any reaction to be had beyond what we saw yesterday. Of more interest might be the fact that the INDU put in an inside NR7 yesterday so today could bring a nice move
roguetrader
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Longish article but an interesting read if you are following the US house price situation.
http://www.realestatejournal.com/buysell/salestrends/20050523-hagerty.html?rejpartner=mktw
http://www.realestatejournal.com/buysell/salestrends/20050523-hagerty.html?rejpartner=mktw
It seems that the upward move that started last week was mainly due to the bears closing their positions. The lack of volume would lend support to this argument and the fact that the rise was somewhat indiscriminate. There is a good chance that the market will rise further before falling away again but the more cautious might feel that they want to see a few more points lopped off before they attempt to ride the roller coaster on the way down.
CMC are currently quoting the DOW off 30 points.
As for the FOMC minutes, they simply confirm what has been known for a while; the FED are desperate to fend off deflation but they cannot and will not tell us that. That is the reason the FED's Funds Rate is still negative. Greenspan will not risk watching the Japanese sickness spread to the US on his watch. A little inflation gives companies pricing power; increased profits; boosts markets; reduces debts in real terms and makes people feel more affluent. Clever and simple policy that has gone unnoticed by most.
CMC are currently quoting the DOW off 30 points.
As for the FOMC minutes, they simply confirm what has been known for a while; the FED are desperate to fend off deflation but they cannot and will not tell us that. That is the reason the FED's Funds Rate is still negative. Greenspan will not risk watching the Japanese sickness spread to the US on his watch. A little inflation gives companies pricing power; increased profits; boosts markets; reduces debts in real terms and makes people feel more affluent. Clever and simple policy that has gone unnoticed by most.
Durable goods post a 1.9% change against a consensus of 1.3%. Bloomberg suggests a recovery in business investment.
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=ay47ted.gPh8&refer=news_index
One swallow and all that.
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=ay47ted.gPh8&refer=news_index
One swallow and all that.
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Don't say I didnt warn you.....
Yes you can argue that its just a little kick back from the upward moves that we've seen but I believe that a top has been made.
Still favour the bulls to keep the market above 10400 this week but the downward moves should resume.
roguetrader
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roguetrader said:
NR7 working well so far.
User will post volume chart at 11am US 4pm UK
Internals very bearish both markets, SOX leading the way after rejection at the 200 week sma
roguetrader
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roguetrader
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Volume relationship remains the same at midday, NYSE slightly ahead of yesterday, Nasdaq lagging. This tells me that thedrop has not attracted any significant number of sellers and I continue to view this as a minor correction in the near term up trend
roguetrader
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Looking for support to kick in at 424 if we get that far
roguetrader
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I must say that for the last couple of days the Nasdaq has really been holding up extremely well.It has been said many a time that the techs lead the markets and I have to be honest that if this is anything to go by then I really cant see the markets going down,which would explain this sideways movement for the last few days and leads me to believe that the dow resistence may very well be broken succesfuly.
The dow has been strugling with 10500,yes for definate but the Nasdaq cash has managed to reach back to 1540 this morning.
I have no idea who is keeping these markets up and cannot understand it at all but until we see more weakness in the tech sector then I just cant see these markets dropping.
The dow has been strugling with 10500,yes for definate but the Nasdaq cash has managed to reach back to 1540 this morning.
I have no idea who is keeping these markets up and cannot understand it at all but until we see more weakness in the tech sector then I just cant see these markets dropping.
