What are your thoughts on the UK housing market?

Atilla said:
I'm in trepidation about this winter season too but I do feel it will be another buying opportunity in spring for the poor souls who missed out this years lows.

Anyone betting on another stimulus bill... :cheesy:
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They can only afford it if I give them the money (I being bond buyers) ,but here's the punch line ,there's no price reason for me to give them that money unless things are actually worse rather than better ..think about it :smart:
 
House price rises are not sustainable in either a deflationary or inflationary environment.
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In what circumstances are they sustainable as this implies it is never ?


Paul
 
Hoggums said:
So either high mortgage rates or high house prices are going to convince them to sell. If we end up with scenario (1) then we could see a accelerating drop in house prices and seller try to dump their properties before prices fall even lower.
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I suggest that negative equity and unemployment could also be factors in forcing people to sell.
 
Hoggums said:
It can't and won't last. House price rises are not sustainable in either a deflationary or inflationary environment. We are probably going to end up with both of these in the next decade. It's the none-inflationary period that we've had over the last 10 years that have let house prices rise so much.

I still think that we are way overpriced. It's a lack of sellers that are keeping prices high at the moment. They can all afford their cheap mortgage rates but they won't make much of a profit if they sell now - so they are holding on. So either high mortgage rates or high house prices are going to convince them to sell. If we end up with scenario (1) then we could see a accelerating drop in house prices and seller try to dump their properties before prices fall even lower.
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House prices: rise 'unsustainable' - Telegraph

As somebody who has lived through the 70s and 80s - I base my view on historical evidence. This is effectively the 40 year long term economic cycle...

Inflation is latent and very much inherent in the system and will take decades to beat and during that time tangible goods - bricks and mortar will be the best place to be. Especially in the UK where there is a shortage of houses.
 
Atilla said:
House prices: rise 'unsustainable' - Telegraph

As somebody who has lived through the 70s and 80s - I base my view on historical evidence. This is effectively the 40 year long term economic cycle...

Inflation is latent and very much inherent in the system and will take decades to beat and during that time tangible goods - bricks and mortar will be the best place to be. Especially in the UK where there is a shortage of houses.
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You're off on that track called 'wrong' yet again. The best place to be is actually in debt ,buying it from a strong cash position. Why do you think the saying cash is king was coined for troubled times ;)
 
chump said:
You're off on that track called 'wrong' yet again. The best place to be is actually in debt ,buying it from a strong cash position. Why do you think the saying cash is king was coined for troubled times ;)
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With high inflation cash is worth jack.

If you are in debt than interest rates in due course will raise the cost of servicing that debt.

I fail to see your point. Can you expand on that - best place is in debt, please...
 
Atilla said:
With high inflation cash is worth jack.

If you are in debt than interest rates in due course will raise the cost of servicing that debt.

I fail to see your point. Can you expand on that - best place is in debt, please...
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Yes I will expand on it. Inflation right now is well negative taking into account both assets and retail prices. So I buy corporate debt junk that gives plus 10% and then add in whatever the deflation rate actually is which is certainly at least another couple % and I get annualised 12% + excluding of course my ability to take capital gains...now what exactly is property going to give you again ?
Why do you think even stinky gvt bonds could be bought at 4% and still give a real return of 6% excluding capital gain .

I'm not patronising you ,but you do have viewpoint limited by your experience. That's not your fault ,but it leaves you open to making statements that are off base.

Inflation in terms of asset prices ,or consumer prices right now isn't even an issue ..forget the bullshti you read about printing money etc. What is actually happening to prices and what is actually happening to the cost and availability of credit which would support prices ? Think about it :idea:
 
In my view if inflation is very much higher than interest rates and especially the rates at which credit can be obtained then being in debt makes economic sense. Also it is not just an ageing population but the UK has some forecasts for a 50% increase in population caused by immigration which is entirely possible. When Poland joined the EU the estimate was that the UK would see an increase of around 50K Polish immigrants. What happened was that we saw 50K a week turn up and over 1 Million in total. Now if Turkey gets into the EU then you will see immigration into the UK on a scale unseen before as it has a population of around 70 million and guess those wishing to emigrate want to come to in the EU if allowed ?


Paul
 
Dont take my disagreeing with your opinions personally. I just think house prices are going down based on my opinion that we still haven't experienced most of the fallout from last year. I think there will be another correction in the market to deal with all the money pumped in which when coupled with unemployment and interest rate hikes will land us right back to square oneish. I'm not saying that confidence hasn't been restored for a lot of people but when the fundamentals kick in then things could really swing around.

Also I take every bit of data compiled by government(esque) agencies with a spoonful of salt.

BTW if there is no mention or rumour of some sort of price fixing/ number fiddling scandal in the next 2 yrs I'll "eat my hat". ;)
 
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Trader333 said:
In my view if inflation is very much higher than interest rates and especially the rates at which credit can be obtained then being in debt makes economic sense. Also it is not just an ageing population but the UK has some forecasts for a 50% increase in population caused by immigration which is entirely possible. When Poland joined the EU the estimate was that the UK would see an increase of around 50K Polish immigrants. What happened was that we saw 50K a week turn up and over 1 Million in total. Now if Turkey gets into the EU then you will see immigration into the UK on a scale unseen before as it has a population of around 70 million and guess those wishing to emigrate want to come to in the EU if allowed ?


Paul
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Which would create demand for new houses to be built (like GB pledged) but how many Turk immigrants will going to Jackson & Co to bang down a deposit on a Redrow? If that happens IMO we'll be saying hello to an era of cheap social housing and probably crime. Might boost construction and get the young people in apprenticeships so could offer a short term fix.
 
Gordon Brown and company cant afford not to create inflation. They have to pay off their massive borrowings. Currency devaluation should do it.
 
Just want to add my view to the original title of this post. House prices will in no shaddow of a doubt continue to fall. The correction this year has now way been enough. headlines today saying that we are now back to last years prices is a highlighting a false market. I very close friend to mine who owns an estate agency tells me that the current market transactions are at an all time low, credit is still extremely difficult to obtain with only 3 times salary. The recent increase in figures is due to a lack of stock on the market because fewer people can afford to move at present. Over the coming year those who have bought flats over the past couple of years at rediculously high figures will now be in negative equity for a further 2 years and thus will not be able to move on up to a house etc. Banks at the moment are still adverse to risk and bearing in mind credit ratings are getting worse by the day fewer and fewer wll be able to get a mortgage. The recent headlines about 90% mortgages are virtually impossible to obtain and are just an advertisings tool, and for those that can get it, will pay very high arrangement fees etc and it then equates to the average rates. The housing market requires a proper correction before it can be sustainable, at the current prices which are down approx 10% in my area(south east) this is not enough of a correction.
 
Which would create demand for new houses to be built (like GB pledged) but how many Turk immigrants will going to Jackson & Co to bang down a deposit on a Redrow?
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No of course not but the demand for rented housing will go up that will put rents up and above a certain level the yield alone will attract investors in my view.


Paul
 
Trader333 said:
No of course not but the demand for rented housing will go up that will put rents up and above a certain level the yield alone will attract investors in my view.


Paul
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Have to disagree there. Rented housing has to be affordable. I can't say I believe a straight X:Y supply/demand would apply to rented housing. Esp if house prices come down. I find it hard to believe they could justify an economy where rent a similar amount to a mortgage on similar property. Well, then again... Tories we're talking about here :)
 
Rents where I live have increased by over 500% in less than 15 years. It may not be affordable to a single occupant but it will be to 3 people sharing and that is what will happen if the demand for rented property is higher than supply. It is already visibly the case here where desirable areas are attracting twice the rent for a basic 2 bedroomed property than other areas.


Paul
 
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