More or less moving as expected, a healthy market retracement the day before yesterday followed by 2 up days...Dow still o/b and VIX o/s but both refusing to reverse...in spite of this o/b and o/s +ve momentum and sentiment still on as seen on the charts...vix consolidating in a tight range of 5 points or so, 30 support refusing to break down though tested intraday (30.3) a couple times, resistance however is at 35 and unless one of them broken we shouldnt expect a major move...
Dow can retrace a couple hundred points but still keeping the current uptrend intact, unless a major break down occurs the trend is up...
Riz
Dow can retrace a couple hundred points but still keeping the current uptrend intact, unless a major break down occurs the trend is up...
Riz
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Hello riz, I have been following this thread from the start and I am absolutely amazed at the sheer accuracy of your analysis. I am subscribed and involved with many high subscription analysis services and trading systems, and you know what they arent anyhwere near as accurate as this, and all on a free open public forum!
For anyone who hasn't noticed, the dow has actually moved 1000 points since the start of this thread
I would just like to say big thank you to you for sharing your insight and knowledge, thanks to you again I am personally up a very large proportion of those points from just following this thread
Keep up the great work
For anyone who hasn't noticed, the dow has actually moved 1000 points since the start of this thread
I would just like to say big thank you to you for sharing your insight and knowledge, thanks to you again I am personally up a very large proportion of those points from just following this thread
Keep up the great work
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Thanks Rally and good luck on your trades..just exercising on VIX market-correlation really, no big deal...
We finally had a down day, a retracement was long due because of dow o/b and vix o/s situation, well we had one, dow lost -180 still up on the week though...while VIX gained +1.85...
Neither dow's loss nor vix's gain are a big deal on their own really, considering dow gained 15% in a month...the beast did need a pause after such a good run...
So where to from here? As seen on the charts, rsi and stochastics trying to turn from o/b,o/s levels, not such big turns to confirm a major reversal though...
VIX still in that tight range of 30-35 and unless broken one way or another sharply, looks like it will be sideways for a while...
As for the DOW the top line of the ascending triangle seems to be significant, it has already been tested and held a few times, maybe we should be looking for strong break of this line for confirmation of trend reversal, putting in round numbers I'd say break of 8800 would signal it while 8750 confirming it, on the other hand a bounce from the current level or one of those mentioned above settling the dow back above 9k preferrably 9.1k could signal resuming and contiunation of the uptrend starting on July the 23rd...
Riz
We finally had a down day, a retracement was long due because of dow o/b and vix o/s situation, well we had one, dow lost -180 still up on the week though...while VIX gained +1.85...
Neither dow's loss nor vix's gain are a big deal on their own really, considering dow gained 15% in a month...the beast did need a pause after such a good run...
So where to from here? As seen on the charts, rsi and stochastics trying to turn from o/b,o/s levels, not such big turns to confirm a major reversal though...
VIX still in that tight range of 30-35 and unless broken one way or another sharply, looks like it will be sideways for a while...
As for the DOW the top line of the ascending triangle seems to be significant, it has already been tested and held a few times, maybe we should be looking for strong break of this line for confirmation of trend reversal, putting in round numbers I'd say break of 8800 would signal it while 8750 confirming it, on the other hand a bounce from the current level or one of those mentioned above settling the dow back above 9k preferrably 9.1k could signal resuming and contiunation of the uptrend starting on July the 23rd...
Riz
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VIX did really try today, hit 35 resistance metioned in the earlier post, but could only consolidate around it, failing to break through and settle above 35 pushed VIX back to the low of the tight range closing the day at 32.29 (-0.59)...
DOW hit support levels also mentioned in the earlier post while VIX hitting resistance...8800 got broken down but 8750 held well and it started a strong upmove off the lod at 8756 all the way up to 8950 to end the day at 8919.
Very impressive really both the way VIX failing to break 35 resistance and dow bouncing off 8750...having said that I must note here that they have both been in this tight range for a long while now without a strong and decisive move either way...
So we must be close to a major move now, although the time of the year and the low volumes resulting from it may delay this move further (On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers by more than 11-to-5 as 993 million shares changed hands; it was the third lightest volume day of the year), lots of economic data expected this week and no doubt many will be looking for signs that the US economy is holding up...this may provide the final push to break the current range...
But for now we're still in that tight range and VIX need to break this 30-35 range decisively one way or another to inspire us to call the market...
Dow on the other hand has formed a clear uptrend line which has been tested successfully 4 times on the daily chart, and unless that line is not broken down decisively the trend is up or sideways as it currently is...
Riz
DOW hit support levels also mentioned in the earlier post while VIX hitting resistance...8800 got broken down but 8750 held well and it started a strong upmove off the lod at 8756 all the way up to 8950 to end the day at 8919.
Very impressive really both the way VIX failing to break 35 resistance and dow bouncing off 8750...having said that I must note here that they have both been in this tight range for a long while now without a strong and decisive move either way...
So we must be close to a major move now, although the time of the year and the low volumes resulting from it may delay this move further (On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers by more than 11-to-5 as 993 million shares changed hands; it was the third lightest volume day of the year), lots of economic data expected this week and no doubt many will be looking for signs that the US economy is holding up...this may provide the final push to break the current range...
But for now we're still in that tight range and VIX need to break this 30-35 range decisively one way or another to inspire us to call the market...
Dow on the other hand has formed a clear uptrend line which has been tested successfully 4 times on the daily chart, and unless that line is not broken down decisively the trend is up or sideways as it currently is...
Riz
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Well a very bumpy day indeed..nothing much changed with regard to VIX up only a fraction, +0.44 to 32.73, still in that tight range signalling sideways in a trading range...
As for dow and the market in general I have to say still impressively resilient; a company like Intel makes such comments as cautious industry outlook, worse-than-expected consumer confidence report, comments on war with Iraq imminent, etc would normally kick off much bigger tanks...
The levels of 8800 and 8750 mentioned in earlier posts still are those to watch and need to break down decisively to show a decisive reaversal of the last rally...
And of course VIX still needs to break 35 and settle above it...
Else most likely bumpy and whipsawing...
Riz
As for dow and the market in general I have to say still impressively resilient; a company like Intel makes such comments as cautious industry outlook, worse-than-expected consumer confidence report, comments on war with Iraq imminent, etc would normally kick off much bigger tanks...
The levels of 8800 and 8750 mentioned in earlier posts still are those to watch and need to break down decisively to show a decisive reaversal of the last rally...
And of course VIX still needs to break 35 and settle above it...
Else most likely bumpy and whipsawing...
Riz
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And finally VIX broke up while dow breaking down...a retest of broken trendlines possible, but apart from that TA wise the rally starting in July has ended and in reverse mode now...the bullish VIX chart pattern and indicators clearly showing it...
More US economic data coming out tomorrow and friday, hope no more conflicting signals like yesterday ones...then again it's never clear cut, is it?
Riz
More US economic data coming out tomorrow and friday, hope no more conflicting signals like yesterday ones...then again it's never clear cut, is it?
Riz
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In the couple days following our call of the end of July rally and market's been in reverse mode, both VIX and dow dithered as could be expected...but the break away didnt take so long to occur, VIX jumped +8.06 to 43.86 while dow going down -355 to 8308...
So what now? VIX at a minor resistance level, well ahead of the recent upchannel and the move's too big comparing with the recent ones, indicators already entering o/b areas...its more likely to pull back to the upchannel border before going further up...
Dow showing similar pattern the other way round and a pull back more likely to occur before further falls...
But over all the reverse mode is on and we can expect the market to keep trending down, not in a straight line of course...
Riz
So what now? VIX at a minor resistance level, well ahead of the recent upchannel and the move's too big comparing with the recent ones, indicators already entering o/b areas...its more likely to pull back to the upchannel border before going further up...
Dow showing similar pattern the other way round and a pull back more likely to occur before further falls...
But over all the reverse mode is on and we can expect the market to keep trending down, not in a straight line of course...
Riz
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Both pulled back as expected in the previous post, VIX down -3.92 to 39.94 and dow up +117 to 8425, thus pulling back to their up/down channels...
VIX can still move down to at least the lower boundary of the upchannel though supported at 39 which should be one level to watch tomorrow...it may well kick start a bounce back to 45 and if broken down 36 is the next level to watch for support...
As for DOW 8400 seems to be a significant level to hold on to if it's going to try the upper boundary of the down channel, 8600/650 levels are significant resistance levels to watch...
Over all although the reversal of the recent rally still intact, tomorrow looks to be a 50-50 day, best watch significance levels intraday and go with the moves...
Riz
VIX can still move down to at least the lower boundary of the upchannel though supported at 39 which should be one level to watch tomorrow...it may well kick start a bounce back to 45 and if broken down 36 is the next level to watch for support...
As for DOW 8400 seems to be a significant level to hold on to if it's going to try the upper boundary of the down channel, 8600/650 levels are significant resistance levels to watch...
Over all although the reversal of the recent rally still intact, tomorrow looks to be a 50-50 day, best watch significance levels intraday and go with the moves...
Riz
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lol... it has been 10 days since I said it's a 50-50 call when dow was 8425 and VIX 39.94...been waiting for a clearer indication of a strong move to update this thread, only havent seen one yet...
VIX almost unchanged since then, still 39.31...DOW at 8312 also not much away from the price at the time, it would have probably closed on friday around 8400 had Honeywell not been slaughtered causing the Dow diverge from other indices which all closed +ve while dow closing -ve...
So where we go from here?
VIX has formed a triangle on the daily chart, only a symmetrical one or a contracted wedge in other words...one thing about such patterns is that one shouldnt call the direction before it breaks although in general they are treated as continuation patterns... but once broken they suggest a strong move in that direction...only the downward trending indicators are signalling down more likely....VIX 15 min further showing the vulnerability of of vix at this level, right at major support of 39 with the last candle having a long wick on the top, this pattern also suggesting vix is vulnerable of losing a couple points to get support at a lower level, 37 or 36 likely
On the DOW daily chart though we still have a lower high formed a few days ago causing concerns, the likelyhood of a bounce on double bottom is on the cards and only after the failure of such a bounce or another lower high formed on this bounce I should be convinced we are about to move big in the direction of the overall downtrend...
It's also worth to mention some significant patterns and moves on the Dow 15 min chart on whcih we see a clear downtrend line been broken on the upside, bactested and bounced off it ending up in forming a rectengular consolidation...as it has formed on lows one would normally think a downside break of this consolidation is more likely, but on the other hand as it has once broken the downtrendline on the upside and bounced off it on backtest, it may well be suggesting a backtesting of the top of the consolidation first, another sign suggesting an upside move first more likely...still break of this consolidation which seems to be squeezed between 250-350 should determine the direction for the rest of the day...
Thought I'd update this trade when it' no longer a 50-50 call, but dont look like it, does it?
Well that's market for you, have to move in a way to cause the most pain and never in a straight line, that's why I consider such threads/posts only as exercizing on certain indicators/patterns...still at least one thing we're sure of is that the overall trend is still down...
Riz
VIX almost unchanged since then, still 39.31...DOW at 8312 also not much away from the price at the time, it would have probably closed on friday around 8400 had Honeywell not been slaughtered causing the Dow diverge from other indices which all closed +ve while dow closing -ve...
So where we go from here?
VIX has formed a triangle on the daily chart, only a symmetrical one or a contracted wedge in other words...one thing about such patterns is that one shouldnt call the direction before it breaks although in general they are treated as continuation patterns... but once broken they suggest a strong move in that direction...only the downward trending indicators are signalling down more likely....VIX 15 min further showing the vulnerability of of vix at this level, right at major support of 39 with the last candle having a long wick on the top, this pattern also suggesting vix is vulnerable of losing a couple points to get support at a lower level, 37 or 36 likely
On the DOW daily chart though we still have a lower high formed a few days ago causing concerns, the likelyhood of a bounce on double bottom is on the cards and only after the failure of such a bounce or another lower high formed on this bounce I should be convinced we are about to move big in the direction of the overall downtrend...
It's also worth to mention some significant patterns and moves on the Dow 15 min chart on whcih we see a clear downtrend line been broken on the upside, bactested and bounced off it ending up in forming a rectengular consolidation...as it has formed on lows one would normally think a downside break of this consolidation is more likely, but on the other hand as it has once broken the downtrendline on the upside and bounced off it on backtest, it may well be suggesting a backtesting of the top of the consolidation first, another sign suggesting an upside move first more likely...still break of this consolidation which seems to be squeezed between 250-350 should determine the direction for the rest of the day...
Thought I'd update this trade when it' no longer a 50-50 call, but dont look like it, does it?
Well that's market for you, have to move in a way to cause the most pain and never in a straight line, that's why I consider such threads/posts only as exercizing on certain indicators/patterns...still at least one thing we're sure of is that the overall trend is still down...
Riz
