very sad..

[arabianights]

The other thing i find funny is that some people seem to have 'chatforum phobias', like the phobia of certain words, 'predicting' is one of them...


"...Oh no, no no, i don't predict, i anticipate and go with the flow..." Whatever...!


You see this more on say ET, but i find it funny non-the-less, that some people do find it hard comming to terms with thier inabilty to see into the future.

Gets worse when you do this full time, I can't ever commit to anything about the future. If someone asks me what I'm having for supper I have to talk about my present plan. It's a sickness!

 

[Paul71]

Gets worse when you do this full time, I can't ever commit to anything about the future. If someone asks me what I'm having for supper I have to talk about my present plan. It's a sickness!

Haha! It is definately some kind of mental illness...how do non-predictors get on in interviews for prop positions...

Interviewer: "Where do you see yourself in say 2 years time..."

Hopeful: "...Er, mmm, eeer, doh, durrrr. I don't predict i go with the flow...."


Firkin lol!

 

[tenbobtrader]

I disagree

papertrading the real market is exactly the same

no paper profits = no real profits

except the 1st time you use papertrading things might go egg shaped when you attempt to go live ............ is that not usual in any activity ?

if you experience emotional problems when you make the switch, more than a bit of first night nerves

your method is not complete, no edge, made excuses in papertrading enviroment, would have done this and that IF real money at stake, not really treated it serious so relaxed and unaware of how you really achieved papertrade results

Recorded the detail - kept a really detailed journal of method and self - no I thought not

in short - GREED to get your hands on all that loot

you have not learned to execute method flawlessly at a subconscious level even in a training environment

at the real market what your feeling is FEAR and rightly so ~

your un-prepared

back to papertrading to do it right

you just took a step forward if you did not carry on and blow your account


one of the best regiments if not the best regiment in the world train in as close to real enviroment as possible, they spend a very large % of their time training in the death house, on the beacons, all over the world to make sure they execute properly and get it right on the day

Tap Tap

later

Andy

 

[everyonerich]

bump this thread

 

[Black Swan]

It's nonsense predictions like this which are probably behind a lot of the reasons people lose money in trading, they kid themselves and even worse others that they know what will happen next with price. I got news for you, YOU DON'T, and nor do I or does anybody else.

What you have is a trading edge beit technical, fundamental or whatever, but this is not predictice it is simply a set-up/pattern/event whatever that occurs that hiostorically when combined with good money management has produced an overall gain over a sample of times it set-up.

For newbies reading this post or any other, the author does not have a crystal ball or magical powers he is as clueless as to price's direction as we all are, and whether it indeed fulfills his prediction or not, please understand the point that you do not need to know where price will go next to make money in trading, which is just as well because with any degree of certainty none of us do. How can we? short of market moving/following/manipulating volume to trade we have no idea of other market participant's trading plan, all we have is our trading egde, ( I appreciate level 2 may be part of that in this market.)

This is a good post in which to remins trader's of the excellent Mark Douglas's;

The 5 Fundamental Truths of Trading:
1. Anything can happen.

2. You don’t need to know what is going to happen next to make money.

3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of
variables that define an edge.

4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing
happening over another.

5. Every moment in the market is unique.

The 7 Principles of Consistency:
1. I objectively identify my edges.

2. I predefine the risk of every trade.

3. I completely accept the risk or I am willing to let go of the trade.

4. I act on my edges without reservation or hesitation.

5. I pay myself as the market makes money available to me.

6. I continually monitor my susceptibility for making errors.

7. I understand the absolute necessity of these principles of consistent success
and, therefore, I never violate them.

G/L

well worth a bump...

 

[Splitlink]

Cheer up - it's only money.

Say that again!

 

[BSD]

Haha! It is definately some kind of mental illness...how do non-predictors get on in interviews for prop positions...

Interviewer: "Where do you see yourself in say 2 years time..."

Hopeful: "...Er, mmm, eeer, doh, durrrr. I don't predict i go with the flow...."


Firkin lol!

Haha thats funny

Can't talk with you anymore but point I'd still like to make is that there is a huge difference between predicting longer term outcomes based on an edge vs individual results.

You can say I'm going to be a millionaire in two years without having or needing a clue as to this days trading outcome let alone individual trades.

The single trade is entirely a coin toss, no one can predict where that's going, you definitely aren't gonna see that demonstrated live ever.

But you can roughly predict where your edge is gonna end you up - depending on how frequently you trade - at the end of the day, week, month, year, on average.

Same like casinos, they are clueless as to whether the roulette wheel is gonna win or lose on this individual run, but the tiny edge they have is sufficient to guarantee, and 100% at that, how far ahead they are gonna be - numbers of punters and amounts being placed remaining roughly equal - at the end of the day.

Ditto for insurance companies, clueless as to whether Jane Mane is gonna get ill at all or if with what, but their edge is that they know that on average Janes get ill so and so often in the west, and that's enough to guarantee them great profits from selling health insurance.

It's all just a probability game, nothing more, nothing less.

Crystal balls are best left to fair grounds.

 

[Splitlink]

Haha thats funny

Can't talk with you anymore but point I'd still like to make is that there is a huge difference between predicting longer term outcomes based on an edge vs individual results.

You can say I'm going to be a millionaire in two years without having or needing a clue as to this days trading outcome let alone individual trades.

The single trade is entirely a coin toss, no one can predict where that's going, you definitely aren't gonna see that demonstrated live ever.

But you can roughly predict where your edge is gonna end you up - depending on how frequently you trade - at the end of the day, week, month, year, on average.

Same like casinos, they are clueless as to whether the roulette wheel is gonna win or lose on this individual run, but the tiny edge they have is sufficient to guarantee, and 100% at that, how far ahead they are gonna be - numbers of punters and amounts being placed remaining roughly equal - at the end of the day.

Ditto for insurance companies, clueless as to whether Jane Mane is gonna get ill at all or if with what, but their edge is that they know that on average Janes get ill so and so often in the west, and that's enough to guarantee them great profits from selling health insurance.

It's all just a probability game, nothing more, nothing less.

Crystal balls are best left to fair grounds.

Your reference to insurance compnies, etc. is an exact comparison. It's all probables, based on statistical evidence. Just make sure that you have got it clear that you cut your losses when it does not do what you want. A loss has always got to be paid for by the next good trade before you can make a net profit, so the smaller it is, the better.

Couldn't agree more, Marcus.