US Unleaded Gas Summer Demand

[activelondontrad]

Hello,
Does anybody have an opinion on unleaded gas demand in the summer (in the US), I got a report saying it always rises during the summer and one can take go long on it.

http://www.wellingtoncr.com/unleaded_gas_report_eng.pdf

Thanks...

 

[commanderco]

Hello,
Does anybody have an opinion on unleaded gas demand in the summer (in the US), I got a report saying it always rises during the summer and one can take go long on it.

http://www.wellingtoncr.com/unleaded_gas_report_eng.pdf

Thanks...

Find yourself some data going back over 10 or 20 years and the answer will become apparent.

In fact, post your findings here, we would all be interested

One thing worth remembering about oil.
With China & India developing oil hungry economies and no new significant oil finds
on the horizon, there is only one direction that oil can go ...... UP

 

[activelondontrad]

Yes thats true , but a 3month option has a time decay factor. My query is also a lot more focussed on the US summer driving demand. Apriori it seems that it rises every year if that is the case then why hasnt someone taken advantage of it already.

 

[commanderco]

Yes thats true , but a 3month option has a time decay factor. My query is also a lot more focussed on the US summer driving demand. Apriori it seems that it rises every year if that is the case then why hasnt someone taken advantage of it already.

Sorry I cannot help activelondontrad.
I am just a simple futures trader, using volatility & momentum.

Things like logic as in "why hasnt someone taken advantage of it already"
are completely beyond me.

I used to have an answer to questions like this and then I got sick of losing
money, so now I only read vol & mo.

Goodluck

 

[Old_Bob]

I believe that one of the main reasons that gas prices are staying high is because demand is not decreasing. Think about it, do you ever have to go somewhere and decide rather to stay home because gas prices are too high? There might be times when you decide not to go somewhere that you want to go, but I doubt that is the case with most of us. The thought never really crosses my mind, if I want to go somewhere, I go. The fact is, gas prices can stay high, because we all keep driving.

 

[-oo0(GoldTrader)]

Facts not Hype!

Hybrid Thread

I don’t know who this Wellington is. Is this a report your son made up for high school or something. Of course America uses more Gasoline, other countries probably make it into heating oil instead.

Find yourself some data going back over 10 or 20 years and the answer will become apparent.

In fact, post your findings here, we would all be interested

​

If you would like some quality research click this chart from Moore Research.​

 

[crm199]

Not sure about other countries using Unleaded Gas for heating oil - that comment is just plain wrong. America uses more Gas for a number of reasons, the over riding one being that US cars have far less efficient engines that are also extremely large. A European engine of 2 litres would probably produce the same power as a US 3.5-4 litre. This has arisen due to the extremely high taxation on Gas in europe - Here in the UK we pay about $9 a gallon.

Now I'm not some greeny nor am I trying to play the US down, far from it, I am trying to show why Gas demand is rising. As we move to more family members owning cars we see a rise in Gas demand.

Now you now neeed to add on the meat to the disscusion - very briefly the main points are that lighter grades of crude are becoming scarce, the best quality oil is WTI followed closly by Brent. Texas and the North sea are running dry, thus lighter fuel derivities are becoming more expensive. Couple onto this fact the really tight refinery margins and you have yourself soaring demand and falling supply. Add China and India to the global picture sucking in all grades of oil and here you have soaring crude and Gas prices.

Putting things into perspective the EIA crude report showed a build in US stocks of 5 mil. barrels yesterday, that lead to prices falling $4 (7.5%) - that 5 million barrels would satisfy US demand for 6 hours OR global demand for less than 90 Minutes. I would say when Oil drops below $50 BUY BUY BUY.

Bottom line is if you want to spend less buy a smaller car - but to all the Americans out there please take pity on us in England who have to pay 4 times what you pay at the pump, I know if we had gas at $2 a gal I would drive a Ferrari not some Toy car.

Hope this has helped in some small way.

 

[-oo0(GoldTrader)]

From the colonies »

Hybrid Thread

It seems to me the USA refines a lesser percentage into Heating Oil than other countries.

Not sure about other countries using Unleaded Gas for heating oil - that comment is just plain wrong.

Got any charts. If they did not make heating oil out of it they could be making gasoline.

America uses more Gas for a number of reasons, the over riding one being that US cars have far less efficient engines that are also extremely large.

We make them that way so that they will burn more gas. We have European and Japanese cars to. Any car you have we can have. A Porsche here is just as efficient as a Porsche over there. But the government gives tax breaks to SUV’s that get less than 10mpg.

A European engine of 2 liters would probably produce the same power as a US 3.5-4 liter.

two liter, what is that a lawn mower?

A 3.4-liter car has more torque than a 2 liter no matter how inefficient. We call a 5-liter V8 a small block. Many of our cars are six liters or more. We have so many airbags, and luxury accessories on these babies, that two liters won’t get us out of the driveway. We have pickup trucks with ten cylinders.

This has arisen due to the extremely high taxation on Gas in Europe - Here in the UK we pay about $9 a gallon.

You can do something about that. Throw the bums out! Why you pay so much for gasoline

Now I'm not some greeny nor am I trying to play the US down, far from it, I am trying to show why Gas demand is rising. As we move to more family members owning cars we see a rise in Gas demand.

We just call that population. They do not have to be family members, they do not have to own the cars, that is your spin. Increase the population and you increase the demand on natural resources.

Now you now need to add on the meat to the discussion

No comment on the meat. I’m a vegetarian.

Bottom line is if you want to spend less buy a smaller car

Why?

Do small two seaters cars cost less.

I don’t think so. If you want to spend less buy an old tanker. Small, light, fast efficient, sports cars will always carry a premium.

but to all the Americans out there please take pity on us in England who have to pay 4 times what you pay at the pump, I know if we had gas at $2 a gal I would drive a Ferrari not some Toy car.

If you can afford a Ferrari you would not worry about the gas. I guess you are going to have to carry a few Unleaded spreads to cover the difference.

 

[techcherry]

Just an humble opinion, we cannot forget if with gas prices around 2.2/3 $ g the demand is still growing , the factor of the in the next weeks prices will come down a bit thanks to a ease of the prices in conjuction with the start of the driving season in the us, probaly will give a 1/2 % increase in demand , being gas the main folowing product = crude prices up, plus the fact the is an improvement in phisical market , principally in the brent where us refinerys are struggling to buy barrels to compensate the exess of saudi heavy crude, plus the bottle neck in the refinery process , all this offsetting the swelling us inv. ...lets not forget the fact of china/ india are probaly starting to need to restock again, at least with prices getting a bit under 50 , will be a good opurt. for them to do it, once the high demand season will start soon again and giving like that the opurt. of crude prices to increase....
so in my opinion or we have a big kick in refinery operation cap. very soon bring the prod.stocks to swell and the saudis keep supplying the us at present levels or we will see the prices of prod./crude swealling up big again...
just a few very personal opinion...